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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · GraphCast (IFS init) · lead day 5

KNYC · graphcast_ifs · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.79 [2.25, 3.40]2.52-1.07 [-2.02, 0.00]3.29 [2.63, 3.86]12% [4%, 21%]44%60%+0.17+0.242026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.79 [2.06, 3.44]2.52-1.07 [-1.96, 0.31]3.29 [2.32, 3.91]12% [0%, 23%]44%60%+0.17+0.242026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d31 1 QC2.99 [2.32, 3.68]2.86-0.77 [-1.77, 0.55]3.50 [2.74, 4.16]10% [0%, 18%]39%58%+0.44+0.482026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall31 1 QC2.99 [2.31, 3.68]2.86-0.77 [-1.70, 0.49]3.50 [2.75, 4.12]10% [0%, 19%]39%58%+0.44+0.482026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC2.76 [2.21, 3.37]2.51-0.98 [-1.92, 0.09]3.26 [2.60, 3.83]12% [4%, 21%]44%60%+0.18+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC2.76 [2.01, 3.42]2.51-0.98 [-1.88, 0.41]3.26 [2.29, 3.86]12% [0%, 23%]44%60%+0.18+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d31 1 QC2.97 [2.29, 3.67]2.86-0.67 [-1.67, 0.67]3.47 [2.70, 4.16]10% [0%, 18%]39%58%+0.45+0.482026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall31 1 QC2.97 [2.27, 3.68]2.86-0.67 [-1.59, 0.62]3.47 [2.70, 4.11]10% [0%, 19%]39%58%+0.45+0.482026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.96 [2.16, 3.93]2.63-1.61 [-2.46, -0.72]3.78 [2.76, 4.66]20% [5%, 37%]44%68%+0.12+0.212026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.96 [2.05, 4.22]2.63-1.61 [-2.59, -0.52]3.78 [2.58, 4.81]20% [0%, 36%]44%68%+0.12+0.212026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d30 1 QC2.64 [1.66, 3.60]2.43-1.48 [-2.22, -0.53]3.50 [2.11, 4.36]27% [10%, 46%]47%73%+0.51+0.562026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall30 1 QC2.64 [1.60, 3.56]2.43-1.48 [-2.25, -0.52]3.50 [1.96, 4.42]27% [9%, 48%]47%73%+0.51+0.562026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d25 1 QC2.92 [2.11, 3.91]2.63-1.52 [-2.38, -0.63]3.74 [2.70, 4.64]24% [6%, 40%]48%68%+0.13+0.212026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d25 1 QC2.92 [1.99, 4.22]2.63-1.52 [-2.50, -0.44]3.74 [2.54, 4.82]24% [0%, 39%]48%68%+0.13+0.212026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d30 1 QC2.60 [1.60, 3.57]2.43-1.37 [-2.12, -0.41]3.46 [2.04, 4.35]30% [12%, 47%]53%73%+0.51+0.562026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall30 1 QC2.60 [1.53, 3.55]2.43-1.37 [-2.15, -0.40]3.46 [1.87, 4.40]30% [12%, 50%]53%73%+0.51+0.562026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.26 [1.68, 2.94]2.19+1.35 [0.30, 2.38]3.05 [2.26, 3.87]36% [23%, 53%]56%68%+0.16+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.26 [1.68, 3.01]2.19+1.35 [0.30, 2.50]3.05 [2.26, 3.95]36% [22%, 53%]56%68%+0.16+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d31 1 QC2.90 [1.84, 4.44]2.84+0.82 [-0.79, 2.21]4.11 [2.45, 5.83]35% [23%, 50%]52%61%+0.36+0.422026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall31 1 QC2.90 [1.83, 4.52]2.84+0.82 [-0.84, 2.27]4.11 [2.43, 6.05]35% [25%, 50%]52%61%+0.36+0.422026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC2.28 [1.69, 2.97]2.17+1.51 [0.46, 2.54]3.10 [2.31, 3.94]36% [23%, 53%]56%68%+0.15+0.132026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC2.28 [1.71, 3.05]2.17+1.51 [0.47, 2.65]3.10 [2.30, 4.03]36% [22%, 53%]56%68%+0.15+0.132026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d31 1 QC2.92 [1.86, 4.43]2.82+0.96 [-0.67, 2.37]4.13 [2.48, 5.82]32% [19%, 47%]52%61%+0.35+0.432026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall31 1 QC2.92 [1.86, 4.52]2.82+0.96 [-0.73, 2.43]4.13 [2.46, 6.00]32% [19%, 47%]52%61%+0.35+0.432026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.41 [1.70, 3.21]2.40+1.20 [0.20, 2.27]3.30 [2.22, 4.38]40% [23%, 57%]56%68%+0.10+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.41 [1.65, 3.28]2.40+1.20 [0.16, 2.33]3.30 [2.21, 4.47]40% [18%, 58%]56%68%+0.10+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d30 1 QC2.78 [1.93, 3.94]2.77+0.90 [-0.39, 2.18]3.77 [2.48, 5.04]37% [18%, 55%]50%63%+0.40+0.452026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall30 1 QC2.78 [1.89, 3.92]2.77+0.90 [-0.44, 2.28]3.77 [2.47, 5.05]37% [19%, 54%]50%63%+0.40+0.452026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d25 1 QC2.44 [1.71, 3.24]2.40+1.35 [0.36, 2.43]3.36 [2.27, 4.45]32% [17%, 48%]56%64%+0.09+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d25 1 QC2.44 [1.65, 3.30]2.40+1.35 [0.34, 2.50]3.36 [2.25, 4.55]32% [14%, 50%]56%64%+0.09+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d30 1 QC2.80 [1.92, 3.96]2.77+1.04 [-0.26, 2.34]3.80 [2.51, 5.06]30% [15%, 45%]50%60%+0.40+0.452026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall30 1 QC2.80 [1.91, 3.92]2.77+1.04 [-0.28, 2.43]3.80 [2.49, 5.09]30% [16%, 45%]50%60%+0.40+0.452026-01-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KNYC, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -0.78 °F2026-08-07: -3.12 °F2026-08-08: -1.97 °F2026-08-09: -1.43 °F2026-08-10: +3.31 °F2026-08-11: +1.54 °F2026-08-12: -6.82 °F2026-08-13: +0.73 °F2026-08-14: -1.12 °F2026-08-15: -6.09 °F2026-08-16: -2.4 °F2026-08-17: +2.89 °F2026-08-18: -5.45 °F2026-08-19: -3.04 °F2026-08-20: -3.93 °F2026-08-21: -1.43 °F2026-08-22: +2.88 °F2026-08-23: +0.43 °F2026-08-24: -1.48 °F2026-08-25: -2.56 °F2026-08-26: -1.84 °F2026-08-27: +1 °F2026-08-28: -4.82 °F2026-08-29: +5.39 °F2026-08-30: +3.38 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+3.38
2026-08-29+5.39
2026-08-28-4.82
2026-08-27+1.00
2026-08-26-1.84
2026-08-25-2.56
2026-08-24-1.48
2026-08-23+0.43
2026-08-22+2.88
2026-08-21-1.43
2026-08-20-3.93
2026-08-19-3.04
2026-08-18-5.45
2026-08-17+2.89
2026-08-16-2.40
2026-08-15-6.09
2026-08-14-1.12
2026-08-13+0.73
2026-08-12-6.82
2026-08-11+1.54
2026-08-10+3.31
2026-08-09-1.43
2026-08-08-1.97
2026-08-07-3.12
2026-08-06-0.78

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KNYC, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 6 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 3 °F: 4 days3 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 1 day7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.56 · P90 |e| 6.09 °F-100+10 °Fn = 31 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.003
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.006
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.003
+2.00+3.004
+3.00+4.002
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.001
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08252.79 -1.07
2026-0163.79 +0.46

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-06 → 2026-08-30 31
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-06 → 2026-08-30 31
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-06 → 2026-08-30 30
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-06 → 2026-08-30 30

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means GraphCast (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 25 +0.49 [-0.18, 1.20] no
NCEP GFS 25 -1.61 [-2.74, -0.49] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 -0.12 [-0.82, 0.70] no
Persistence (baseline) 25 -0.57 [-2.13, 1.09] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC graphcast_ifs lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model graphcast_ifs, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence