Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · NCEP GFS · lead day 1

KAUS · gfs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC1.47 [1.08, 1.84]1.12-1.20 [-1.65, -0.77]1.78 [1.40, 2.08]41% [24%, 60%]62%93%+0.03+0.272026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC1.47 [1.06, 1.94]1.12-1.20 [-1.84, -0.58]1.78 [1.37, 2.17]41% [20%, 59%]62%93%+0.03+0.272026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC1.47 [1.05, 1.97]1.12-1.20 [-1.86, -0.54]1.78 [1.33, 2.17]41% [20%, 61%]62%93%+0.03+0.272026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 1 QC1.47 [1.08, 1.93]1.12-1.20 [-1.79, -0.50]1.78 [1.36, 2.15]41% [19%, 57%]62%93%+0.03+0.272026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d29 1 QC1.48 [1.08, 1.90]1.10-1.15 [-1.53, -0.78]1.76 [1.38, 2.09]34% [11%, 57%]72%93%+0.03+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d29 1 QC1.48 [1.09, 2.00]1.10-1.15 [-1.69, -0.58]1.76 [1.36, 2.17]34% [7%, 56%]72%93%+0.03+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 1 QC1.48 [1.07, 1.99]1.10-1.15 [-1.73, -0.56]1.76 [1.34, 2.14]34% [8%, 57%]72%93%+0.03+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 1 QC1.48 [1.11, 1.98]1.10-1.15 [-1.66, -0.49]1.76 [1.39, 2.14]34% [6%, 56%]72%93%+0.03+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC1.58 [1.07, 2.09]1.37-1.11 [-1.59, -0.62]1.98 [1.43, 2.38]38% [14%, 60%]72%83%-0.04+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC1.58 [1.11, 2.19]1.37-1.11 [-1.85, -0.45]1.98 [1.46, 2.47]38% [8%, 58%]72%83%-0.04+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC1.58 [1.06, 2.24]1.37-1.11 [-1.93, -0.43]1.98 [1.39, 2.51]38% [10%, 59%]72%83%-0.04+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall29 1 QC1.58 [1.11, 2.18]1.37-1.11 [-1.80, -0.35]1.98 [1.38, 2.45]38% [7%, 59%]72%83%-0.04+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d29 1 QC1.31 [0.88, 1.72]1.26-0.77 [-1.22, -0.35]1.74 [1.21, 2.14]55% [32%, 73%]76%93%+0.14+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d29 1 QC1.31 [0.91, 1.81]1.26-0.77 [-1.44, -0.14]1.74 [1.23, 2.21]55% [28%, 73%]76%93%+0.14+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d29 1 QC1.31 [0.86, 1.85]1.26-0.77 [-1.45, -0.15]1.74 [1.18, 2.23]55% [24%, 74%]76%93%+0.14+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall29 1 QC1.31 [0.91, 1.80]1.26-0.77 [-1.36, -0.04]1.74 [1.21, 2.19]55% [28%, 74%]76%93%+0.14+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC3.84 [2.53, 5.13]2.64+3.38 [1.52, 5.06]4.71 [3.34, 5.81]17% [3%, 37%]31%41%-0.39+0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC3.84 [2.45, 5.30]2.64+3.38 [1.51, 5.26]4.71 [3.18, 5.99]17% [0%, 35%]31%41%-0.39+0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC3.84 [2.34, 5.47]2.64+3.38 [1.36, 5.42]4.71 [3.01, 6.08]17% [0%, 38%]31%41%-0.39+0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 1 QC3.84 [2.39, 5.44]2.64+3.38 [1.52, 5.40]4.71 [3.10, 6.12]17% [0%, 37%]31%41%-0.39+0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d29 1 QC4.75 [2.97, 6.48]2.84+4.57 [2.50, 6.48]5.78 [4.14, 7.10]17% [3%, 38%]31%34%-0.72-0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d29 1 QC4.75 [2.87, 6.65]2.84+4.57 [2.45, 6.65]5.78 [3.88, 7.30]17% [0%, 38%]31%34%-0.72-0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 1 QC4.75 [2.73, 6.88]2.84+4.57 [2.29, 6.88]5.78 [3.80, 7.39]17% [0%, 39%]31%34%-0.72-0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 1 QC4.75 [2.89, 6.83]2.84+4.57 [2.49, 6.83]5.78 [3.85, 7.42]17% [0%, 38%]31%34%-0.72-0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC3.83 [2.56, 5.16]2.77+3.33 [1.43, 5.08]4.75 [3.33, 5.91]21% [7%, 37%]31%45%-0.39-0.002026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC3.83 [2.47, 5.35]2.77+3.33 [1.43, 5.26]4.75 [3.15, 6.08]21% [6%, 36%]31%45%-0.39-0.002026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC3.83 [2.31, 5.50]2.77+3.33 [1.22, 5.42]4.75 [2.94, 6.25]21% [5%, 38%]31%45%-0.39-0.002026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall29 1 QC3.83 [2.35, 5.66]2.77+3.33 [1.47, 5.54]4.75 [3.03, 6.36]21% [0%, 36%]31%45%-0.39-0.002026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d29 1 QC4.74 [3.13, 6.41]2.90+4.49 [2.48, 6.40]5.74 [4.08, 7.12]14% [3%, 28%]24%38%-0.72-0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d29 1 QC4.74 [2.99, 6.59]2.90+4.49 [2.36, 6.59]5.74 [3.89, 7.30]14% [0%, 29%]24%38%-0.72-0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d29 1 QC4.74 [2.87, 6.78]2.90+4.49 [2.18, 6.78]5.74 [3.62, 7.44]14% [0%, 30%]24%38%-0.72-0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall29 1 QC4.74 [2.97, 6.93]2.90+4.49 [2.47, 6.93]5.74 [3.69, 7.52]14% [0%, 29%]24%38%-0.72-0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-02: +1.48 °F2026-08-03: +1.31 °F2026-08-04: -0.91 °F2026-08-05: -1.19 °F2026-08-06: -2.97 °F2026-08-07: -2.9 °F2026-08-08: -0.04 °F2026-08-09: -2.05 °F2026-08-10: -3.05 °F2026-08-11: -0.85 °F2026-08-12: -2.3 °F2026-08-13: -1.58 °F2026-08-14: -0.21 °F2026-08-15: -0.8 °F2026-08-16: +0.69 °F2026-08-17: -2.07 °F2026-08-18: -0.39 °F2026-08-19: +0.19 °F2026-08-20: +0.23 °F2026-08-21: -1.8 °F2026-08-22: -2.77 °F2026-08-23: -1.42 °F2026-08-24: -0.18 °F2026-08-25: -0.21 °F2026-08-26: -0.95 °F2026-08-27: -2.2 °F2026-08-28: -3.16 °F2026-08-29: -2.32 °F2026-08-30: -2.49 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.49
2026-08-29-2.32
2026-08-28-3.16
2026-08-27-2.20
2026-08-26-0.95
2026-08-25-0.21
2026-08-24-0.18
2026-08-23-1.42
2026-08-22-2.77
2026-08-21-1.80
2026-08-20+0.23
2026-08-19+0.19
2026-08-18-0.39
2026-08-17-2.07
2026-08-16+0.69
2026-08-15-0.80
2026-08-14-0.21
2026-08-13-1.58
2026-08-12-2.30
2026-08-11-0.85
2026-08-10-3.05
2026-08-09-2.05
2026-08-08-0.04
2026-08-07-2.90
2026-08-06-2.97
2026-08-05-1.19
2026-08-04-0.91
2026-08-03+1.31
2026-08-02+1.48

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 1-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 0 days-3.5 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 3 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 2 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 4 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 0.5 °F: 2 days0.5 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 1.5 °F: 2 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.42 · P90 |e| 2.92 °F-50+5 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.000
-4.00-3.500
-3.50-3.002
-3.00-2.503
-2.50-2.006
-2.00-1.502
-1.50-1.002
-1.00-0.504
-0.50+0.005
+0.00+0.502
+0.50+1.001
+1.00+1.502
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08291.47 -1.20

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 29 -3.87 [-4.39, -3.32] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -6.89 [-6.89, -6.89] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -5.35 [-6.12, -4.58] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -3.01 [-3.01, -3.01] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -2.35 [-2.58, -2.12] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -6.15 [-6.15, -6.15] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 27 -6.12 [-6.62, -5.64] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 23 -3.29 [-3.90, -2.49] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -1.95 [-1.95, -1.95] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -3.51 [-3.58, -3.44] yes
Persistence (baseline) 29 -0.04 [-0.78, 0.74] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS gfs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model gfs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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