Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KAUS · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC4.75 [4.16, 5.41]1.08-4.75 [-5.41, -4.16]4.91 [4.34, 5.52]0% [0%, 0%]0%13%-1.95+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC4.75 [4.04, 5.51]1.08-4.75 [-5.51, -4.04]4.91 [4.21, 5.59]0% [0%, 0%]0%13%-1.95+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC4.75 [4.05, 5.55]1.08-4.75 [-5.55, -4.05]4.91 [4.21, 5.62]0% [0%, 0%]0%13%-1.95+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC4.75 [3.94, 5.57]1.08-4.75 [-5.57, -3.94]4.91 [4.09, 5.66]0% [0%, 0%]0%13%-1.95+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC4.31 [3.77, 4.91]1.06-4.31 [-4.91, -3.77]4.49 [3.95, 5.04]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-1.68+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC4.31 [3.58, 5.03]1.06-4.31 [-5.03, -3.58]4.49 [3.78, 5.13]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-1.68+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC4.31 [3.59, 5.10]1.06-4.31 [-5.10, -3.59]4.49 [3.78, 5.18]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-1.68+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC4.31 [3.46, 5.08]1.06-4.31 [-5.08, -3.46]4.49 [3.62, 5.16]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-1.68+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC5.09 [4.53, 5.75]1.16-5.09 [-5.75, -4.53]5.29 [4.72, 5.87]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-2.22+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC5.09 [4.47, 5.84]1.16-5.09 [-5.84, -4.47]5.29 [4.61, 5.95]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-2.22+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC5.09 [4.45, 5.84]1.16-5.09 [-5.84, -4.45]5.29 [4.59, 5.97]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-2.22+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC5.09 [4.36, 5.83]1.16-5.09 [-5.83, -4.36]5.29 [4.50, 5.96]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-2.22+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC4.63 [4.07, 5.28]1.15-4.63 [-5.28, -4.07]4.85 [4.28, 5.48]0% [0%, 0%]0%21%-1.92+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC4.63 [4.02, 5.43]1.15-4.63 [-5.43, -4.02]4.85 [4.18, 5.59]0% [0%, 0%]0%21%-1.92+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC4.63 [3.98, 5.47]1.15-4.63 [-5.47, -3.98]4.85 [4.15, 5.64]0% [0%, 0%]0%21%-1.92+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC4.63 [3.93, 5.40]1.15-4.63 [-5.40, -3.93]4.85 [4.13, 5.58]0% [0%, 0%]0%21%-1.92+0.282026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC4.12 [2.60, 5.41]1.82+4.05 [2.45, 5.41]4.65 [3.28, 5.67]13% [0%, 33%]26%26%-0.60+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC4.12 [2.53, 5.65]1.82+4.05 [2.38, 5.65]4.65 [3.20, 5.85]13% [0%, 33%]26%26%-0.60+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC4.12 [2.44, 5.65]1.82+4.05 [2.29, 5.65]4.65 [3.03, 5.91]13% [0%, 35%]26%26%-0.60+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC4.12 [2.49, 5.77]1.82+4.05 [2.36, 5.77]4.65 [3.16, 5.99]13% [0%, 35%]26%26%-0.60+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC4.35 [2.78, 5.71]1.91+4.29 [2.67, 5.71]4.91 [3.52, 5.98]13% [0%, 33%]26%26%-0.69+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC4.35 [2.69, 5.96]1.91+4.29 [2.58, 5.96]4.91 [3.41, 6.21]13% [0%, 33%]26%26%-0.69+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC4.35 [2.60, 6.01]1.91+4.29 [2.48, 6.01]4.91 [3.22, 6.26]13% [0%, 35%]26%26%-0.69+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC4.35 [2.68, 6.09]1.91+4.29 [2.58, 6.09]4.91 [3.37, 6.33]13% [0%, 35%]26%26%-0.69+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.85 [2.59, 4.92]1.58+3.73 [2.29, 4.92]4.32 [3.11, 5.20]17% [0%, 42%]21%21%-0.54+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.85 [2.52, 4.99]1.58+3.73 [2.25, 4.99]4.32 [3.06, 5.31]17% [0%, 43%]21%21%-0.54+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.85 [2.48, 5.05]1.58+3.73 [2.19, 5.05]4.32 [3.04, 5.34]17% [0%, 44%]21%21%-0.54+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.85 [2.55, 5.02]1.58+3.73 [2.22, 5.02]4.32 [3.06, 5.34]17% [0%, 44%]21%21%-0.54+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC3.98 [2.61, 5.15]1.62+3.87 [2.33, 5.15]4.47 [3.13, 5.45]17% [0%, 42%]21%21%-0.59+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC3.98 [2.59, 5.22]1.62+3.87 [2.32, 5.22]4.47 [3.09, 5.53]17% [0%, 43%]21%21%-0.59+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC3.98 [2.50, 5.29]1.62+3.87 [2.22, 5.29]4.47 [3.05, 5.59]17% [0%, 44%]21%21%-0.59+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC3.98 [2.56, 5.31]1.62+3.87 [2.27, 5.31]4.47 [3.10, 5.61]17% [0%, 44%]21%21%-0.59+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -2.88 °F2026-08-09: -6.56 °F2026-08-10: -5.94 °F2026-08-11: -5.98 °F2026-08-12: -5.86 °F2026-08-13: -5.12 °F2026-08-14: -3.86 °F2026-08-15: -6.33 °F2026-08-16: -4.8 °F2026-08-17: -6.26 °F2026-08-18: -4.63 °F2026-08-19: -2.43 °F2026-08-20: -3.39 °F2026-08-21: -4.33 °F2026-08-22: -6.15 °F2026-08-23: -3.86 °F2026-08-24: -3.31 °F2026-08-25: -2.78 °F2026-08-26: -4.39 °F2026-08-27: -5.12 °F2026-08-28: -3.91 °F2026-08-29: -6.25 °F2026-08-30: -5.06 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.06
2026-08-29-6.25
2026-08-28-3.91
2026-08-27-5.12
2026-08-26-4.39
2026-08-25-2.78
2026-08-24-3.31
2026-08-23-3.86
2026-08-22-6.15
2026-08-21-4.33
2026-08-20-3.39
2026-08-19-2.43
2026-08-18-4.63
2026-08-17-6.26
2026-08-16-4.80
2026-08-15-6.33
2026-08-14-3.86
2026-08-13-5.12
2026-08-12-5.86
2026-08-11-5.98
2026-08-10-5.94
2026-08-09-6.56
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-2.88

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 5 days-6 to -5 °F: 6 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.8 · P90 |e| 6.25 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.005
-6.00-5.006
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08234.75 -4.75

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -0.44 [-1.41, 0.06] no
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -4.31 [-4.31, -4.31] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -2.10 [-3.54, -0.66] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -0.44 [-0.44, -0.44] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +0.90 [-0.00, 1.81] no
NCEP GFS 23 +3.29 [2.49, 3.90] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -3.57 [-3.57, -3.57] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -2.82 [-3.57, -2.25] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.62 [0.62, 0.62] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -0.26 [-1.00, 0.49] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +3.14 [2.10, 4.01] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence