Austin Bergstrom · Persistence (baseline) · lead day 1
KAUS · persistence · lead 1
Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.
Scores use the latest model version segment, obs, starting 2024-01-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.
JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page
Every number for this combination
All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.
| Variable | Init | Method | Window | n | MAE °F | MAE debiased | Bias °F | RMSE °F | ±1 °F | ±2 °F | ±3 °F | Skill | Skill, debiased | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tmax | 00Z | bilinear | 30d | 30 1 QC | 1.60 [1.23, 2.00] | 1.60 | +0.00 [-0.43, 0.47] | 2.03 [1.48, 2.53] | 30% [20%, 40%] | 83% | 83% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 00Z | bilinear | 90d | 90 1 QC | 2.20 [1.60, 2.91] | 2.21 | -0.09 [-0.56, 0.36] | 3.26 [2.16, 4.25] | 34% [23%, 46%] | 72% | 74% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 00Z | bilinear | 365d | 365 1 QC | 4.87 [4.06, 5.79] | 4.87 | +0.00 [-0.44, 0.44] | 7.21 [6.09, 8.36] | 22% [17%, 28%] | 44% | 51% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 00Z | bilinear | all | 972 1 QC | 4.64 [4.19, 5.17] | 4.64 | -0.04 [-0.31, 0.22] | 6.99 [6.29, 7.71] | 23% [20%, 26%] | 44% | 52% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 00Z | nearest | 30d | 30 1 QC | 1.60 [1.23, 2.00] | 1.60 | +0.00 [-0.43, 0.47] | 2.03 [1.48, 2.53] | 30% [20%, 40%] | 83% | 83% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 00Z | nearest | 90d | 90 1 QC | 2.20 [1.60, 2.91] | 2.21 | -0.09 [-0.56, 0.36] | 3.26 [2.16, 4.25] | 34% [23%, 46%] | 72% | 74% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 00Z | nearest | 365d | 365 1 QC | 4.87 [4.06, 5.79] | 4.87 | +0.00 [-0.44, 0.44] | 7.21 [6.09, 8.36] | 22% [17%, 28%] | 44% | 51% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 00Z | nearest | all | 972 1 QC | 4.64 [4.19, 5.17] | 4.64 | -0.04 [-0.31, 0.22] | 6.99 [6.29, 7.71] | 23% [20%, 26%] | 44% | 52% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | bilinear | 30d | 30 1 QC | 1.60 [1.23, 2.00] | 1.60 | +0.00 [-0.43, 0.47] | 2.03 [1.48, 2.53] | 30% [20%, 40%] | 83% | 83% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | bilinear | 90d | 90 1 QC | 2.20 [1.60, 2.91] | 2.21 | -0.09 [-0.56, 0.36] | 3.26 [2.16, 4.25] | 34% [23%, 46%] | 72% | 74% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | bilinear | 365d | 365 1 QC | 4.87 [4.06, 5.79] | 4.87 | +0.00 [-0.44, 0.44] | 7.21 [6.09, 8.36] | 22% [17%, 28%] | 44% | 51% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | bilinear | all | 972 1 QC | 4.64 [4.19, 5.17] | 4.64 | -0.04 [-0.31, 0.22] | 6.99 [6.29, 7.71] | 23% [20%, 26%] | 44% | 52% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | nearest | 30d | 30 1 QC | 1.60 [1.23, 2.00] | 1.60 | +0.00 [-0.43, 0.47] | 2.03 [1.48, 2.53] | 30% [20%, 40%] | 83% | 83% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | nearest | 90d | 90 1 QC | 2.20 [1.60, 2.91] | 2.21 | -0.09 [-0.56, 0.36] | 3.26 [2.16, 4.25] | 34% [23%, 46%] | 72% | 74% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | nearest | 365d | 365 1 QC | 4.87 [4.06, 5.79] | 4.87 | +0.00 [-0.44, 0.44] | 7.21 [6.09, 8.36] | 22% [17%, 28%] | 44% | 51% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | nearest | all | 972 1 QC | 4.64 [4.19, 5.17] | 4.64 | -0.04 [-0.31, 0.22] | 6.99 [6.29, 7.71] | 23% [20%, 26%] | 44% | 52% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | bilinear | 30d | 30 1 QC | 2.70 [2.00, 3.47] | 2.71 | +0.10 [-0.47, 0.63] | 3.32 [2.39, 4.25] | 30% [13%, 47%] | 47% | 57% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | bilinear | 90d | 90 1 QC | 2.36 [2.00, 2.70] | 2.36 | -0.02 [-0.32, 0.27] | 2.94 [2.53, 3.36] | 40% [30%, 50%] | 54% | 67% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | bilinear | 365d | 365 1 QC | 5.13 [4.34, 5.93] | 5.13 | +0.01 [-0.47, 0.49] | 7.15 [6.09, 8.02] | 22% [16%, 27%] | 35% | 44% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | bilinear | all | 972 1 QC | 5.02 [4.60, 5.48] | 5.02 | -0.03 [-0.35, 0.28] | 7.08 [6.50, 7.66] | 22% [19%, 25%] | 35% | 46% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | nearest | 30d | 30 1 QC | 2.70 [2.00, 3.47] | 2.71 | +0.10 [-0.47, 0.63] | 3.32 [2.39, 4.25] | 30% [13%, 47%] | 47% | 57% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | nearest | 90d | 90 1 QC | 2.36 [2.00, 2.70] | 2.36 | -0.02 [-0.32, 0.27] | 2.94 [2.53, 3.36] | 40% [30%, 50%] | 54% | 67% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | nearest | 365d | 365 1 QC | 5.13 [4.34, 5.93] | 5.13 | +0.01 [-0.47, 0.49] | 7.15 [6.09, 8.02] | 22% [16%, 27%] | 35% | 44% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | nearest | all | 972 1 QC | 5.02 [4.60, 5.48] | 5.02 | -0.03 [-0.35, 0.28] | 7.08 [6.50, 7.66] | 22% [19%, 25%] | 35% | 46% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | bilinear | 30d | 30 1 QC | 2.70 [2.00, 3.47] | 2.71 | +0.10 [-0.47, 0.63] | 3.32 [2.39, 4.25] | 30% [13%, 47%] | 47% | 57% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | bilinear | 90d | 90 1 QC | 2.36 [2.00, 2.70] | 2.36 | -0.02 [-0.32, 0.27] | 2.94 [2.53, 3.36] | 40% [30%, 50%] | 54% | 67% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | bilinear | 365d | 365 1 QC | 5.13 [4.34, 5.93] | 5.13 | +0.01 [-0.47, 0.49] | 7.15 [6.09, 8.02] | 22% [16%, 27%] | 35% | 44% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | bilinear | all | 972 1 QC | 5.02 [4.60, 5.48] | 5.02 | -0.03 [-0.35, 0.28] | 7.08 [6.50, 7.66] | 22% [19%, 25%] | 35% | 46% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | nearest | 30d | 30 1 QC | 2.70 [2.00, 3.47] | 2.71 | +0.10 [-0.47, 0.63] | 3.32 [2.39, 4.25] | 30% [13%, 47%] | 47% | 57% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | nearest | 90d | 90 1 QC | 2.36 [2.00, 2.70] | 2.36 | -0.02 [-0.32, 0.27] | 2.94 [2.53, 3.36] | 40% [30%, 50%] | 54% | 67% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | nearest | 365d | 365 1 QC | 5.13 [4.34, 5.93] | 5.13 | +0.01 [-0.47, 0.49] | 7.15 [6.09, 8.02] | 22% [16%, 27%] | 35% | 44% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | nearest | all | 972 1 QC | 5.02 [4.60, 5.48] | 5.02 | -0.03 [-0.35, 0.28] | 7.08 [6.50, 7.66] | 22% [19%, 25%] | 35% | 46% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily error, last 90 days
Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Persistence (baseline) at KAUS, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax: no scored days yet.
The same series as a table (0 days, newest first) · download CSV
| Climatological day | Error °F |
|---|
Error distribution
Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Persistence (baseline) at KAUS, lead day 1: no scored days yet.
Availability
| Model | Scored period | Days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 |
Compared with other models
Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Persistence (baseline) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.
| Other model | Common days | MAE difference °F | Distinguishable |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 29 | -3.82 [-4.57, -3.18] | yes |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 1 | -9.37 [-9.37, -9.37] | yes |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2 | -6.75 [-8.60, -4.91] | yes |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 1 | -5.50 [-5.50, -5.50] | yes |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2 | -3.75 [-5.06, -2.44] | yes |
| NCEP GFS | 29 | +0.04 [-0.74, 0.78] | no |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 1 | -8.63 [-8.63, -8.63] | yes |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 27 | -5.99 [-6.72, -5.49] | yes |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 23 | -3.14 [-4.01, -2.10] | yes |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 1 | -4.44 [-4.44, -4.44] | yes |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2 | -4.91 [-6.06, -3.76] | yes |
Cite this page
ShortCastCheck, KAUS persistence lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/persistence/lead/1/
LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model persistence, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/persistence/lead/1/
Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)