Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 1

KAUS · aifs_single · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC5.34 [4.82, 5.88]1.31-5.34 [-5.88, -4.82]5.55 [5.03, 6.04]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-2.52+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC5.34 [4.81, 6.01]1.31-5.34 [-6.01, -4.81]5.55 [5.02, 6.15]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-2.52+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC5.34 [4.79, 5.98]1.31-5.34 [-5.98, -4.79]5.55 [5.01, 6.12]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-2.52+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 1 QC5.34 [4.67, 6.04]1.31-5.34 [-6.04, -4.67]5.55 [4.94, 6.17]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-2.52+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d29 1 QC5.38 [4.87, 5.95]1.28-5.38 [-5.95, -4.87]5.58 [5.08, 6.08]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-2.55+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d29 1 QC5.38 [4.85, 6.07]1.28-5.38 [-6.07, -4.85]5.58 [5.05, 6.21]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-2.55+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 1 QC5.38 [4.83, 6.04]1.28-5.38 [-6.04, -4.83]5.58 [5.05, 6.20]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-2.55+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 1 QC5.38 [4.74, 6.10]1.28-5.38 [-6.10, -4.74]5.58 [4.98, 6.22]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-2.55+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC5.78 [5.23, 6.43]1.31-5.78 [-6.43, -5.23]5.97 [5.38, 6.60]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.81+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC5.78 [5.19, 6.62]1.31-5.78 [-6.62, -5.19]5.97 [5.36, 6.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.81+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC5.78 [5.20, 6.60]1.31-5.78 [-6.60, -5.20]5.97 [5.38, 6.72]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.81+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall29 1 QC5.78 [5.12, 6.63]1.31-5.78 [-6.63, -5.12]5.97 [5.32, 6.79]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.81+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d29 1 QC5.82 [5.27, 6.48]1.28-5.82 [-6.48, -5.27]6.00 [5.42, 6.63]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.84+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d29 1 QC5.82 [5.25, 6.68]1.28-5.82 [-6.68, -5.25]6.00 [5.40, 6.81]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.84+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d29 1 QC5.82 [5.24, 6.64]1.28-5.82 [-6.64, -5.24]6.00 [5.41, 6.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.84+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall29 1 QC5.82 [5.17, 6.69]1.28-5.82 [-6.69, -5.17]6.00 [5.35, 6.83]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.84+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC2.94 [2.09, 3.72]1.43+2.74 [1.77, 3.63]3.31 [2.45, 4.00]14% [0%, 31%]31%52%-0.07+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC2.94 [2.08, 3.81]1.43+2.74 [1.75, 3.72]3.31 [2.43, 4.07]14% [0%, 31%]31%52%-0.07+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.94 [1.97, 3.88]1.43+2.74 [1.72, 3.87]3.31 [2.35, 4.12]14% [0%, 32%]31%52%-0.07+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.94 [2.06, 3.92]1.43+2.74 [1.67, 3.92]3.31 [2.38, 4.18]14% [0%, 31%]31%52%-0.07+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d29 1 QC2.83 [1.96, 3.68]1.49+2.59 [1.57, 3.57]3.23 [2.33, 3.97]17% [3%, 38%]31%55%-0.03+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d29 1 QC2.83 [1.93, 3.74]1.49+2.59 [1.56, 3.67]3.23 [2.30, 4.03]17% [0%, 38%]31%55%-0.03+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 1 QC2.83 [1.84, 3.81]1.49+2.59 [1.51, 3.80]3.23 [2.23, 4.08]17% [0%, 41%]31%55%-0.03+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 1 QC2.83 [1.90, 3.88]1.49+2.59 [1.45, 3.86]3.23 [2.26, 4.17]17% [0%, 38%]31%55%-0.03+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC2.54 [1.78, 3.12]1.38+2.33 [1.54, 3.02]2.93 [2.18, 3.46]21% [3%, 41%]34%69%+0.08+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC2.54 [1.82, 3.16]1.38+2.33 [1.50, 3.03]2.93 [2.19, 3.50]21% [0%, 40%]34%69%+0.08+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.54 [1.71, 3.21]1.38+2.33 [1.46, 3.11]2.93 [2.10, 3.56]21% [0%, 43%]34%69%+0.08+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.54 [1.75, 3.21]1.38+2.33 [1.44, 3.16]2.93 [2.13, 3.56]21% [0%, 42%]34%69%+0.08+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d29 1 QC2.43 [1.65, 3.05]1.43+2.16 [1.31, 2.92]2.85 [2.06, 3.42]21% [3%, 41%]38%72%+0.12+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d29 1 QC2.43 [1.67, 3.08]1.43+2.16 [1.27, 2.96]2.85 [2.08, 3.48]21% [0%, 40%]38%72%+0.12+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d29 1 QC2.43 [1.57, 3.12]1.43+2.16 [1.23, 3.04]2.85 [1.98, 3.53]21% [0%, 43%]38%72%+0.12+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall29 1 QC2.43 [1.62, 3.14]1.43+2.16 [1.22, 3.09]2.85 [2.02, 3.56]21% [0%, 42%]38%72%+0.12+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KAUS, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -6.66 °F2026-08-03: -7.73 °F2026-08-04: -5.93 °F2026-08-05: -5.02 °F2026-08-06: -6.32 °F2026-08-07: -6 °F2026-08-08: -4.59 °F2026-08-09: -6.93 °F2026-08-10: -7.34 °F2026-08-11: -4.28 °F2026-08-12: -4.86 °F2026-08-13: -5.1 °F2026-08-14: -4.76 °F2026-08-15: -6.08 °F2026-08-16: -4.88 °F2026-08-17: -7.08 °F2026-08-18: -4.52 °F2026-08-19: -2.87 °F2026-08-20: -3.67 °F2026-08-21: -4.01 °F2026-08-22: -7.04 °F2026-08-23: -4.62 °F2026-08-24: -4.41 °F2026-08-25: -4.17 °F2026-08-26: -2.61 °F2026-08-27: -7.9 °F2026-08-28: -8.13 °F2026-08-29: -3.17 °F2026-08-30: -4.17 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.17
2026-08-29-3.17
2026-08-28-8.13
2026-08-27-7.90
2026-08-26-2.61
2026-08-25-4.17
2026-08-24-4.41
2026-08-23-4.62
2026-08-22-7.04
2026-08-21-4.01
2026-08-20-3.67
2026-08-19-2.87
2026-08-18-4.52
2026-08-17-7.08
2026-08-16-4.88
2026-08-15-6.08
2026-08-14-4.76
2026-08-13-5.10
2026-08-12-4.86
2026-08-11-4.28
2026-08-10-7.34
2026-08-09-6.93
2026-08-08-4.59
2026-08-07-6.00
2026-08-06-6.32
2026-08-05-5.02
2026-08-04-5.93
2026-08-03-7.73
2026-08-02-6.66

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KAUS, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 5 days-7 to -6 °F: 5 days-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 11 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.88 · P90 |e| 7.42 °F-100+10 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.005
-7.00-6.005
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.0011
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08295.34 -5.34

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -5.20 [-5.20, -5.20] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -4.08 [-4.43, -3.74] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -1.33 [-1.33, -1.33] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -1.08 [-1.27, -0.89] yes
NCEP GFS 29 +3.87 [3.32, 4.39] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -4.46 [-4.46, -4.46] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 27 -2.37 [-3.47, -1.45] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 23 +0.44 [-0.06, 1.41] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -0.27 [-0.27, -0.27] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -2.24 [-2.59, -1.89] yes
Persistence (baseline) 29 +3.82 [3.18, 4.57] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS aifs_single lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model aifs_single, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence