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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 1

KAUS · aurora_ifs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC7.75 [6.91, 8.60]0.85-7.75 [-8.60, -6.91]7.80 [6.91, 8.60]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.75+0.152026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC7.75 [6.91, 8.60]0.85-7.75 [-8.60, -6.91]7.80 [6.91, 8.60]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.75+0.152026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC7.75 [6.91, 8.60]0.85-7.75 [-8.60, -6.91]7.80 [6.91, 8.60]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.75+0.152026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall2 1 QC7.75 [6.91, 8.60]0.85-7.75 [-8.60, -6.91]7.80 [6.91, 8.60]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.75+0.152026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d2 1 QC7.76 [6.96, 8.55]0.80-7.76 [-8.55, -6.96]7.80 [6.96, 8.55]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.76+0.202026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d2 1 QC7.76 [6.96, 8.55]0.80-7.76 [-8.55, -6.96]7.80 [6.96, 8.55]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.76+0.202026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d2 1 QC7.76 [6.96, 8.55]0.80-7.76 [-8.55, -6.96]7.80 [6.96, 8.55]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.76+0.202026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall2 1 QC7.76 [6.96, 8.55]0.80-7.76 [-8.55, -6.96]7.80 [6.96, 8.55]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-6.76+0.202026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC8.13 [7.79, 8.48]0.35-8.13 [-8.48, -7.79]8.14 [7.79, 8.48]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.13+0.652026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC8.13 [7.79, 8.48]0.35-8.13 [-8.48, -7.79]8.14 [7.79, 8.48]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.13+0.652026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC8.13 [7.79, 8.48]0.35-8.13 [-8.48, -7.79]8.14 [7.79, 8.48]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.13+0.652026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC8.13 [7.79, 8.48]0.35-8.13 [-8.48, -7.79]8.14 [7.79, 8.48]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.13+0.652026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC8.14 [7.85, 8.42]0.29-8.14 [-8.42, -7.85]8.14 [7.85, 8.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.14+0.712026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC8.14 [7.85, 8.42]0.29-8.14 [-8.42, -7.85]8.14 [7.85, 8.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.14+0.712026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC8.14 [7.85, 8.42]0.29-8.14 [-8.42, -7.85]8.14 [7.85, 8.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.14+0.712026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC8.14 [7.85, 8.42]0.29-8.14 [-8.42, -7.85]8.14 [7.85, 8.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-7.14+0.712026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC4.98 [3.89, 6.07]1.09+4.98 [3.89, 6.07]5.10 [3.89, 6.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.66+0.642026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC4.98 [3.89, 6.07]1.09+4.98 [3.89, 6.07]5.10 [3.89, 6.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.66+0.642026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC4.98 [3.89, 6.07]1.09+4.98 [3.89, 6.07]5.10 [3.89, 6.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.66+0.642026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall2 1 QC4.98 [3.89, 6.07]1.09+4.98 [3.89, 6.07]5.10 [3.89, 6.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.66+0.642026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d2 1 QC4.76 [3.66, 5.86]1.10+4.76 [3.66, 5.86]4.89 [3.66, 5.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.59+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d2 1 QC4.76 [3.66, 5.86]1.10+4.76 [3.66, 5.86]4.89 [3.66, 5.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.59+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d2 1 QC4.76 [3.66, 5.86]1.10+4.76 [3.66, 5.86]4.89 [3.66, 5.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.59+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall2 1 QC4.76 [3.66, 5.86]1.10+4.76 [3.66, 5.86]4.89 [3.66, 5.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.59+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC4.99 [3.98, 6.00]1.01+4.99 [3.98, 6.00]5.09 [3.98, 6.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.66+0.662026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC4.99 [3.98, 6.00]1.01+4.99 [3.98, 6.00]5.09 [3.98, 6.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.66+0.662026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC4.99 [3.98, 6.00]1.01+4.99 [3.98, 6.00]5.09 [3.98, 6.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.66+0.662026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC4.99 [3.98, 6.00]1.01+4.99 [3.98, 6.00]5.09 [3.98, 6.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.66+0.662026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC4.71 [3.67, 5.76]1.04+4.71 [3.67, 5.76]4.83 [3.67, 5.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.57+0.652026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC4.71 [3.67, 5.76]1.04+4.71 [3.67, 5.76]4.83 [3.67, 5.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.57+0.652026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC4.71 [3.67, 5.76]1.04+4.71 [3.67, 5.76]4.83 [3.67, 5.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.57+0.652026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC4.71 [3.67, 5.76]1.04+4.71 [3.67, 5.76]4.83 [3.67, 5.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.57+0.652026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KAUS, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-29: -6.91 °F2026-08-30: -8.6 °F2026-08-292026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (2 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-8.60
2026-08-29-6.91

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KAUS, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 7.75 · P90 |e| 8.43 °F-100+10 °Fn = 2 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0827.75 -7.75

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 2 +4.08 [3.74, 4.43] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -0.77 [-0.77, -0.77] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +3.11 [3.11, 3.11] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +3.00 [2.46, 3.54] yes
NCEP GFS 2 +5.35 [4.58, 6.12] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -0.03 [-0.03, -0.03] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 2 -1.74 [-1.98, -1.50] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 2 +2.10 [0.66, 3.54] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +4.16 [4.16, 4.16] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +1.84 [1.15, 2.54] yes
Persistence (baseline) 2 +6.75 [4.91, 8.60] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS aurora_ifs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aurora_ifs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model aurora_ifs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aurora_ifs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence