Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · NCEP GFS · lead day 2

KAUS · gfs · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC1.55 [1.09, 1.99]1.38-1.11 [-1.68, -0.43]2.00 [1.46, 2.40]43% [29%, 57%]68%82%+0.13+0.232026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC1.55 [1.08, 2.03]1.38-1.11 [-1.69, -0.34]2.00 [1.42, 2.41]43% [24%, 59%]68%82%+0.13+0.232026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC1.55 [1.06, 2.00]1.38-1.11 [-1.70, -0.38]2.00 [1.37, 2.40]43% [23%, 60%]68%82%+0.13+0.232026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall28 1 QC1.55 [1.08, 2.01]1.38-1.11 [-1.66, -0.26]2.00 [1.42, 2.41]43% [25%, 59%]68%82%+0.13+0.232026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d28 1 QC1.58 [1.09, 2.09]1.44-0.97 [-1.54, -0.27]2.06 [1.45, 2.53]39% [19%, 57%]71%82%+0.11+0.202026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d28 1 QC1.58 [1.08, 2.16]1.44-0.97 [-1.56, -0.14]2.06 [1.41, 2.59]39% [14%, 58%]71%82%+0.11+0.202026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d28 1 QC1.58 [1.05, 2.10]1.44-0.97 [-1.56, -0.20]2.06 [1.36, 2.54]39% [14%, 60%]71%82%+0.11+0.202026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall28 1 QC1.58 [1.07, 2.20]1.44-0.97 [-1.57, -0.02]2.06 [1.42, 2.59]39% [13%, 58%]71%82%+0.11+0.202026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC1.55 [0.94, 2.22]1.32-1.29 [-2.04, -0.60]2.01 [1.27, 2.55]46% [22%, 69%]68%79%+0.13+0.262026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC1.55 [0.90, 2.28]1.32-1.29 [-2.15, -0.48]2.01 [1.22, 2.61]46% [18%, 71%]68%79%+0.13+0.262026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC1.55 [0.86, 2.29]1.32-1.29 [-2.14, -0.38]2.01 [1.17, 2.65]46% [19%, 71%]68%79%+0.13+0.262026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall28 1 QC1.55 [0.90, 2.30]1.32-1.29 [-2.12, -0.48]2.01 [1.19, 2.61]46% [18%, 71%]68%79%+0.13+0.262026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d28 1 QC1.46 [0.86, 2.13]1.36-1.07 [-1.78, -0.42]1.97 [1.14, 2.59]50% [25%, 73%]68%82%+0.18+0.242026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d28 1 QC1.46 [0.83, 2.26]1.36-1.07 [-1.88, -0.30]1.97 [1.09, 2.67]50% [20%, 73%]68%82%+0.18+0.242026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d28 1 QC1.46 [0.81, 2.25]1.36-1.07 [-1.88, -0.18]1.97 [1.06, 2.67]50% [20%, 74%]68%82%+0.18+0.242026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall28 1 QC1.46 [0.82, 2.24]1.36-1.07 [-1.84, -0.17]1.97 [1.08, 2.65]50% [18%, 76%]68%82%+0.18+0.242026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC3.52 [2.52, 4.64]2.77+2.89 [1.19, 4.42]4.44 [3.24, 5.64]18% [7%, 32%]36%50%-0.07+0.162026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC3.52 [2.39, 4.76]2.77+2.89 [1.17, 4.61]4.44 [3.13, 5.80]18% [7%, 33%]36%50%-0.07+0.162026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC3.52 [2.41, 4.98]2.77+2.89 [1.07, 4.88]4.44 [3.09, 5.88]18% [6%, 32%]36%50%-0.07+0.162026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall28 1 QC3.52 [2.44, 4.87]2.77+2.89 [1.18, 4.82]4.44 [3.06, 6.15]18% [5%, 33%]36%50%-0.07+0.162026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d28 1 QC4.40 [2.87, 5.91]2.86+4.11 [2.18, 5.85]5.44 [3.97, 6.84]14% [3%, 29%]29%39%-0.34+0.132026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d28 1 QC4.40 [2.79, 6.08]2.86+4.11 [2.17, 6.08]5.44 [3.84, 7.06]14% [0%, 29%]29%39%-0.34+0.132026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d28 1 QC4.40 [2.76, 6.33]2.86+4.11 [2.05, 6.33]5.44 [3.71, 7.13]14% [0%, 31%]29%39%-0.34+0.132026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall28 1 QC4.40 [2.83, 6.22]2.86+4.11 [2.20, 6.22]5.44 [3.67, 7.38]14% [0%, 31%]29%39%-0.34+0.132026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC3.79 [2.67, 5.06]2.92+3.14 [1.20, 4.96]4.78 [3.37, 6.12]14% [3%, 29%]29%50%-0.15+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC3.79 [2.54, 5.32]2.92+3.14 [1.21, 5.27]4.78 [3.28, 6.37]14% [0%, 32%]29%50%-0.15+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC3.79 [2.50, 5.50]2.92+3.14 [1.02, 5.50]4.78 [3.07, 6.48]14% [0%, 30%]29%50%-0.15+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall28 1 QC3.79 [2.55, 5.36]2.92+3.14 [1.20, 5.35]4.78 [3.09, 6.70]14% [0%, 32%]29%50%-0.15+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d28 1 QC4.65 [2.97, 6.40]3.09+4.32 [2.17, 6.36]5.80 [4.07, 7.34]14% [3%, 29%]25%39%-0.41+0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d28 1 QC4.65 [2.93, 6.65]3.09+4.32 [2.15, 6.65]5.80 [3.90, 7.67]14% [0%, 29%]25%39%-0.41+0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d28 1 QC4.65 [2.79, 6.83]3.09+4.32 [2.00, 6.83]5.80 [3.71, 7.79]14% [0%, 31%]25%39%-0.41+0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall28 1 QC4.65 [2.89, 6.65]3.09+4.32 [2.19, 6.65]5.80 [3.67, 8.03]14% [0%, 31%]25%39%-0.41+0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-03: +2.2 °F2026-08-04: +0.76 °F2026-08-05: +0.24 °F2026-08-06: -3.28 °F2026-08-07: -3.7 °F2026-08-08: -2.14 °F2026-08-09: -3.56 °F2026-08-10: -0.68 °F2026-08-11: -0.23 °F2026-08-12: -1.55 °F2026-08-13: -1.73 °F2026-08-14: +0.08 °F2026-08-15: -0.38 °F2026-08-16: +1.58 °F2026-08-17: -0.97 °F2026-08-18: -0.52 °F2026-08-19: -0.29 °F2026-08-20: -2.12 °F2026-08-21: -0.23 °F2026-08-22: -4.49 °F2026-08-23: -1.71 °F2026-08-24: -2.55 °F2026-08-25: +0.05 °F2026-08-26: -0.22 °F2026-08-27: -1.87 °F2026-08-28: -3.75 °F2026-08-29: +1.27 °F2026-08-30: -1.22 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.22
2026-08-29+1.27
2026-08-28-3.75
2026-08-27-1.87
2026-08-26-0.22
2026-08-25+0.05
2026-08-24-2.55
2026-08-23-1.71
2026-08-22-4.49
2026-08-21-0.23
2026-08-20-2.12
2026-08-19-0.29
2026-08-18-0.52
2026-08-17-0.97
2026-08-16+1.58
2026-08-15-0.38
2026-08-14+0.08
2026-08-13-1.73
2026-08-12-1.55
2026-08-11-0.23
2026-08-10-0.68
2026-08-09-3.56
2026-08-08-2.14
2026-08-07-3.70
2026-08-06-3.28
2026-08-05+0.24
2026-08-04+0.76
2026-08-03+2.20

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 2-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3.5 °F: 3 days-3.5 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2.5 °F: 1 day-2.5 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 4 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to -0.5 °F: 3 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 0.5 °F: 3 days0.5 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 1.5 °F: 1 day1.5 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 2.5 °F: 1 day2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.41 · P90 |e| 3.6 °F-50+5 °Fn = 28 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.001
-4.00-3.503
-3.50-3.001
-3.00-2.501
-2.50-2.002
-2.00-1.504
-1.50-1.001
-1.00-0.503
-0.50+0.005
+0.00+0.503
+0.50+1.001
+1.00+1.501
+1.50+2.001
+2.00+2.501
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08281.55 -1.11

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 28 -3.75 [-4.26, -3.25] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -5.40 [-5.40, -5.40] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -2.91 [-2.91, -2.91] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 26 -5.90 [-6.71, -4.94] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 -2.91 [-3.85, -1.75] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -5.12 [-5.12, -5.12] yes
Persistence (baseline) 28 -0.24 [-1.01, 0.61] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS gfs lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model gfs, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence