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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KAUS · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.42 [3.80, 5.08]1.34-4.42 [-5.08, -3.80]4.69 [4.05, 5.32]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-1.21+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.42 [3.54, 5.09]1.34-4.42 [-5.09, -3.54]4.69 [3.80, 5.31]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-1.21+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.42 [3.60, 5.18]1.34-4.42 [-5.18, -3.60]4.69 [3.81, 5.37]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-1.21+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.42 [3.48, 5.13]1.34-4.42 [-5.13, -3.48]4.69 [3.65, 5.35]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-1.21+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.97 [3.35, 4.59]1.30-3.97 [-4.59, -3.35]4.30 [3.63, 4.86]0% [0%, 0%]9%36%-0.99+0.352026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.97 [3.10, 4.58]1.30-3.97 [-4.58, -3.10]4.30 [3.33, 4.88]0% [0%, 0%]9%36%-0.99+0.352026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.97 [3.13, 4.67]1.30-3.97 [-4.67, -3.13]4.30 [3.33, 4.94]0% [0%, 0%]9%36%-0.99+0.352026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC3.97 [3.00, 4.65]1.30-3.97 [-4.65, -3.00]4.30 [3.25, 4.94]0% [0%, 0%]9%36%-0.99+0.352026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.83 [4.23, 5.64]1.13-4.83 [-5.64, -4.23]5.02 [4.40, 5.75]0% [0%, 0%]0%9%-1.53+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.83 [4.20, 5.74]1.13-4.83 [-5.74, -4.20]5.02 [4.36, 5.83]0% [0%, 0%]0%9%-1.53+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.83 [4.15, 5.76]1.13-4.83 [-5.76, -4.15]5.02 [4.28, 5.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%9%-1.53+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.83 [4.14, 5.81]1.13-4.83 [-5.81, -4.14]5.02 [4.30, 5.91]0% [0%, 0%]0%9%-1.53+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC4.39 [3.81, 5.14]1.10-4.39 [-5.14, -3.81]4.59 [4.00, 5.27]0% [0%, 0%]5%18%-1.30+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC4.39 [3.77, 5.23]1.10-4.39 [-5.23, -3.77]4.59 [3.92, 5.34]0% [0%, 0%]5%18%-1.30+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC4.39 [3.76, 5.26]1.10-4.39 [-5.26, -3.76]4.59 [3.91, 5.37]0% [0%, 0%]5%18%-1.30+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC4.39 [3.72, 5.28]1.10-4.39 [-5.28, -3.72]4.59 [3.83, 5.39]0% [0%, 0%]5%18%-1.30+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.67 [3.54, 5.59]1.87+4.47 [3.00, 5.58]5.11 [4.04, 5.89]5% [0%, 14%]14%23%-0.53+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.67 [3.45, 5.73]1.87+4.47 [2.91, 5.73]5.11 [4.02, 6.00]5% [0%, 14%]14%23%-0.53+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.67 [3.39, 5.75]1.87+4.47 [2.83, 5.75]5.11 [3.94, 6.00]5% [0%, 15%]14%23%-0.53+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.67 [3.50, 5.87]1.87+4.47 [2.98, 5.87]5.11 [4.02, 6.14]5% [0%, 14%]14%23%-0.53+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC4.87 [3.74, 5.81]1.97+4.69 [3.26, 5.80]5.35 [4.31, 6.10]5% [0%, 14%]14%18%-0.60+0.352026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC4.87 [3.61, 5.95]1.97+4.69 [3.12, 5.95]5.35 [4.21, 6.18]5% [0%, 14%]14%18%-0.60+0.352026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC4.87 [3.57, 5.95]1.97+4.69 [3.04, 5.95]5.35 [4.19, 6.21]5% [0%, 15%]14%18%-0.60+0.352026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC4.87 [3.62, 6.00]1.97+4.69 [3.18, 6.00]5.35 [4.27, 6.27]5% [0%, 14%]14%18%-0.60+0.352026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.42 [3.02, 5.68]1.68+4.19 [2.41, 5.68]4.80 [3.49, 5.84]0% [0%, 0%]18%23%-0.45+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.42 [2.92, 5.84]1.68+4.19 [2.33, 5.84]4.80 [3.38, 5.97]0% [0%, 0%]18%23%-0.45+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.42 [2.93, 5.86]1.68+4.19 [2.31, 5.86]4.80 [3.28, 6.01]0% [0%, 0%]18%23%-0.45+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.42 [2.90, 6.14]1.68+4.19 [2.35, 6.14]4.80 [3.30, 6.21]0% [0%, 0%]18%23%-0.45+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC4.58 [3.10, 5.84]1.75+4.37 [2.52, 5.84]4.98 [3.59, 5.99]0% [0%, 0%]18%23%-0.51+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC4.58 [3.02, 6.00]1.75+4.37 [2.40, 6.00]4.98 [3.46, 6.10]0% [0%, 0%]18%23%-0.51+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC4.58 [2.99, 6.02]1.75+4.37 [2.40, 6.02]4.98 [3.41, 6.16]0% [0%, 0%]18%23%-0.51+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC4.58 [2.95, 6.15]1.75+4.37 [2.44, 6.15]4.98 [3.44, 6.25]0% [0%, 0%]18%23%-0.51+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -1.92 °F2026-08-08: -3.99 °F2026-08-09: -5.85 °F2026-08-11: -5.35 °F2026-08-13: -6.05 °F2026-08-14: -3.56 °F2026-08-15: -7.61 °F2026-08-16: -3.98 °F2026-08-17: -6.01 °F2026-08-18: -5.2 °F2026-08-19: -3.02 °F2026-08-20: -2.15 °F2026-08-21: -3.42 °F2026-08-22: -5.68 °F2026-08-23: -4.15 °F2026-08-24: -3.23 °F2026-08-25: -2.78 °F2026-08-26: -4.03 °F2026-08-27: -3.36 °F2026-08-28: -7.78 °F2026-08-29: -3.07 °F2026-08-30: -5.03 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.03
2026-08-29-3.07
2026-08-28-7.78
2026-08-27-3.36
2026-08-26-4.03
2026-08-25-2.78
2026-08-24-3.23
2026-08-23-4.15
2026-08-22-5.68
2026-08-21-3.42
2026-08-20-2.15
2026-08-19-3.02
2026-08-18-5.20
2026-08-17-6.01
2026-08-16-3.98
2026-08-15-7.61
2026-08-14-3.56
2026-08-13-6.05
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11-5.35
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-5.85
2026-08-08-3.99
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03-1.92

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 5 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 8 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.01 · P90 |e| 6.04 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.005
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.008
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08224.42 -4.42

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.83 [-1.77, -0.31] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -1.58 [-1.58, -1.58] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +0.90 [0.90, 0.90] yes
NCEP GFS 22 +2.91 [1.75, 3.85] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -3.25 [-4.16, -2.44] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -1.31 [-1.31, -1.31] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +2.42 [0.74, 3.35] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence