Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · NCEP GFS · lead day 3

KNYC · gfs · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.80 [3.09, 4.59]2.66+3.00 [1.91, 4.04]4.43 [3.71, 5.16]19% [7%, 33%]22%33%-0.15+0.202026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.80 [3.04, 4.74]2.66+3.00 [1.77, 4.21]4.43 [3.63, 5.32]19% [6%, 33%]22%33%-0.15+0.202026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.80 [2.95, 4.82]2.66+3.00 [1.72, 4.23]4.43 [3.53, 5.40]19% [0%, 35%]22%33%-0.15+0.202026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.80 [2.97, 4.78]2.66+3.00 [1.60, 4.29]4.43 [3.51, 5.34]19% [5%, 36%]22%33%-0.15+0.202026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 1 QC3.91 [3.19, 4.67]2.56+3.19 [2.14, 4.20]4.50 [3.81, 5.20]11% [0%, 23%]22%33%-0.19+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 1 QC3.91 [3.18, 4.83]2.56+3.19 [2.02, 4.35]4.50 [3.70, 5.35]11% [0%, 22%]22%33%-0.19+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 1 QC3.91 [3.07, 4.91]2.56+3.19 [1.98, 4.39]4.50 [3.59, 5.45]11% [0%, 23%]22%33%-0.19+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 1 QC3.91 [3.09, 4.89]2.56+3.19 [1.84, 4.46]4.50 [3.61, 5.39]11% [0%, 23%]22%33%-0.19+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC4.13 [3.32, 5.04]3.32+2.01 [0.31, 3.54]4.55 [3.68, 5.39]4% [0%, 11%]7%30%-0.25-0.002026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC4.13 [3.26, 5.34]3.32+2.01 [0.38, 3.77]4.55 [3.59, 5.72]4% [0%, 11%]7%30%-0.25-0.002026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC4.13 [3.18, 5.33]3.32+2.01 [0.21, 3.75]4.55 [3.50, 5.68]4% [0%, 11%]7%30%-0.25-0.002026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 1 QC4.13 [3.22, 5.28]3.32+2.01 [0.32, 3.79]4.55 [3.55, 5.61]4% [0%, 12%]7%30%-0.25-0.002026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 1 QC4.18 [3.34, 5.11]3.26+2.20 [0.58, 3.67]4.60 [3.69, 5.46]4% [0%, 11%]11%33%-0.27+0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 1 QC4.18 [3.26, 5.43]3.26+2.20 [0.63, 3.89]4.60 [3.62, 5.77]4% [0%, 11%]11%33%-0.27+0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 1 QC4.18 [3.19, 5.39]3.26+2.20 [0.49, 3.90]4.60 [3.50, 5.71]4% [0%, 11%]11%33%-0.27+0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 1 QC4.18 [3.23, 5.38]3.26+2.20 [0.55, 3.93]4.60 [3.56, 5.69]4% [0%, 12%]11%33%-0.27+0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC5.21 [4.54, 5.90]2.13+5.21 [4.54, 5.90]6.01 [5.06, 7.08]0% [0%, 0%]19%22%-0.65+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC5.21 [4.53, 5.94]2.13+5.21 [4.53, 5.94]6.01 [4.98, 7.13]0% [0%, 0%]19%22%-0.65+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC5.21 [4.48, 5.89]2.13+5.21 [4.48, 5.89]6.01 [4.90, 7.16]0% [0%, 0%]19%22%-0.65+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 1 QC5.21 [4.43, 5.95]2.13+5.21 [4.43, 5.95]6.01 [4.91, 7.21]0% [0%, 0%]19%22%-0.65+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 1 QC5.52 [4.85, 6.22]2.17+5.52 [4.85, 6.22]6.29 [5.29, 7.37]0% [0%, 0%]7%19%-0.75+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 1 QC5.52 [4.84, 6.29]2.17+5.52 [4.84, 6.29]6.29 [5.22, 7.42]0% [0%, 0%]7%19%-0.75+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 1 QC5.52 [4.77, 6.24]2.17+5.52 [4.77, 6.24]6.29 [5.14, 7.46]0% [0%, 0%]7%19%-0.75+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 1 QC5.52 [4.74, 6.30]2.17+5.52 [4.74, 6.30]6.29 [5.17, 7.50]0% [0%, 0%]7%19%-0.75+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC5.06 [4.31, 5.73]2.00+5.04 [4.29, 5.71]5.79 [4.78, 6.87]4% [0%, 11%]11%19%-0.61+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC5.06 [4.25, 5.77]2.00+5.04 [4.22, 5.73]5.79 [4.69, 6.96]4% [0%, 11%]11%19%-0.61+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC5.06 [4.27, 5.73]2.00+5.04 [4.26, 5.71]5.79 [4.71, 6.93]4% [0%, 12%]11%19%-0.61+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 1 QC5.06 [4.19, 5.72]2.00+5.04 [4.16, 5.72]5.79 [4.61, 6.95]4% [0%, 12%]11%19%-0.61+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 1 QC5.31 [4.58, 5.99]2.04+5.31 [4.58, 5.99]6.03 [5.04, 7.07]4% [0%, 11%]11%19%-0.69+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 1 QC5.31 [4.50, 6.00]2.04+5.31 [4.50, 6.00]6.03 [4.91, 7.16]4% [0%, 11%]11%19%-0.69+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 1 QC5.31 [4.55, 5.98]2.04+5.31 [4.55, 5.98]6.03 [4.94, 7.13]4% [0%, 12%]11%19%-0.69+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 1 QC5.31 [4.45, 5.96]2.04+5.31 [4.45, 5.96]6.03 [4.87, 7.16]4% [0%, 12%]11%19%-0.69+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KNYC, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: +0.9 °F2026-08-05: -3.39 °F2026-08-06: +5.21 °F2026-08-07: +3.99 °F2026-08-08: +4.78 °F2026-08-09: +6.44 °F2026-08-10: +6.24 °F2026-08-11: +8.32 °F2026-08-12: +0.68 °F2026-08-13: +5.09 °F2026-08-14: +0.07 °F2026-08-15: -0.34 °F2026-08-16: -4.63 °F2026-08-17: +3.36 °F2026-08-18: +1.69 °F2026-08-19: +4.94 °F2026-08-20: +6.47 °F2026-08-21: +3.88 °F2026-08-22: +0.26 °F2026-08-23: +4.22 °F2026-08-24: +3.3 °F2026-08-25: +2.05 °F2026-08-26: +2.21 °F2026-08-27: +5.18 °F2026-08-28: -2.46 °F2026-08-29: +3.88 °F2026-08-30: +8.55 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+8.55
2026-08-29+3.88
2026-08-28-2.46
2026-08-27+5.18
2026-08-26+2.21
2026-08-25+2.05
2026-08-24+3.30
2026-08-23+4.22
2026-08-22+0.26
2026-08-21+3.88
2026-08-20+6.47
2026-08-19+4.94
2026-08-18+1.69
2026-08-17+3.36
2026-08-16-4.63
2026-08-15-0.34
2026-08-14+0.07
2026-08-13+5.09
2026-08-12+0.68
2026-08-11+8.32
2026-08-10+6.24
2026-08-09+6.44
2026-08-08+4.78
2026-08-07+3.99
2026-08-06+5.21
2026-08-05-3.39
2026-08-04+0.90

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KNYC, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 4 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 5 days4 to 5 °F: 3 days5 to 6 °F: 3 days6 to 7 °F: 3 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 2 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.88 · P90 |e| 6.45 °F-100+10 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.004
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.005
+4.00+5.003
+5.00+6.003
+6.00+7.003
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.002
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08273.80 +3.00

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 27 +1.91 [1.04, 2.81] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 +1.25 [-0.15, 2.21] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +0.24 [-1.12, 2.05] no
Persistence (baseline) 27 +0.50 [-0.48, 1.62] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC gfs lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/gfs/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model gfs, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/gfs/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence