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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KNYC · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.34 [1.96, 4.50]3.31+0.36 [-0.97, 2.00]4.23 [2.47, 5.25]23% [5%, 43%]41%55%-0.05-0.102026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.34 [1.74, 4.54]3.31+0.36 [-1.07, 2.15]4.23 [2.18, 5.28]23% [0%, 50%]41%55%-0.05-0.102026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.34 [1.64, 4.58]3.31+0.36 [-1.13, 2.35]4.23 [2.04, 5.32]23% [0%, 50%]41%55%-0.05-0.102026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.34 [1.57, 4.54]3.31+0.36 [-1.20, 2.34]4.23 [2.02, 5.28]23% [0%, 50%]41%55%-0.05-0.102026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.38 [1.91, 4.61]3.33+0.62 [-0.77, 2.32]4.26 [2.50, 5.25]27% [9%, 50%]41%55%-0.06-0.112026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.38 [1.63, 4.69]3.33+0.62 [-0.90, 2.54]4.26 [2.12, 5.30]27% [7%, 53%]41%55%-0.06-0.112026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.38 [1.48, 4.73]3.33+0.62 [-0.94, 2.71]4.26 [1.98, 5.34]27% [6%, 56%]41%55%-0.06-0.112026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC3.38 [1.47, 4.70]3.33+0.62 [-0.99, 2.66]4.26 [1.97, 5.30]27% [6%, 56%]41%55%-0.06-0.112026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.08 [2.66, 3.61]3.05-0.32 [-1.52, 1.14]3.47 [2.94, 3.98]5% [0%, 12%]32%59%+0.03-0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.08 [2.59, 3.81]3.05-0.32 [-1.74, 1.59]3.47 [2.83, 4.10]5% [0%, 12%]32%59%+0.03-0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.08 [2.46, 3.76]3.05-0.32 [-1.86, 1.66]3.47 [2.63, 4.06]5% [0%, 13%]32%59%+0.03-0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.08 [2.45, 3.82]3.05-0.32 [-1.81, 1.66]3.47 [2.62, 4.08]5% [0%, 12%]32%59%+0.03-0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.05 [2.59, 3.67]3.03-0.13 [-1.35, 1.39]3.47 [2.92, 4.02]5% [0%, 12%]32%55%+0.04-0.012026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.05 [2.51, 3.90]3.03-0.13 [-1.57, 1.86]3.47 [2.79, 4.17]5% [0%, 12%]32%55%+0.04-0.012026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.05 [2.44, 3.86]3.03-0.13 [-1.67, 1.87]3.47 [2.65, 4.15]5% [0%, 13%]32%55%+0.04-0.012026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC3.05 [2.41, 3.84]3.03-0.13 [-1.61, 1.87]3.47 [2.61, 4.20]5% [0%, 12%]32%55%+0.04-0.012026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.24 [2.01, 4.49]2.22+3.24 [2.01, 4.49]4.18 [2.78, 5.08]27% [4%, 45%]41%55%-0.03+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.24 [1.73, 4.88]2.22+3.24 [1.72, 4.88]4.18 [2.35, 5.29]27% [0%, 48%]41%55%-0.03+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.24 [1.49, 4.85]2.22+3.24 [1.48, 4.85]4.18 [1.98, 5.26]27% [0%, 50%]41%55%-0.03+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.24 [1.78, 4.87]2.22+3.24 [1.77, 4.87]4.18 [2.41, 5.24]27% [0%, 48%]41%55%-0.03+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.38 [2.07, 4.72]2.27+3.38 [2.07, 4.72]4.33 [2.88, 5.27]23% [4%, 38%]41%55%-0.08+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.38 [1.76, 5.07]2.27+3.38 [1.76, 5.07]4.33 [2.42, 5.50]23% [0%, 40%]41%55%-0.08+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.38 [1.52, 5.07]2.27+3.38 [1.52, 5.07]4.33 [2.07, 5.47]23% [0%, 43%]41%55%-0.08+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC3.38 [1.82, 5.11]2.27+3.38 [1.82, 5.11]4.33 [2.48, 5.45]23% [0%, 40%]41%55%-0.08+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.20 [1.60, 2.82]1.43+2.13 [1.52, 2.74]3.00 [1.91, 3.94]32% [20%, 42%]50%77%+0.30+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.20 [1.56, 2.91]1.43+2.13 [1.47, 2.80]3.00 [1.88, 4.00]32% [18%, 44%]50%77%+0.30+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.20 [1.52, 2.88]1.43+2.13 [1.46, 2.82]3.00 [1.81, 4.05]32% [17%, 44%]50%77%+0.30+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.20 [1.53, 2.79]1.43+2.13 [1.49, 2.70]3.00 [1.83, 3.98]32% [18%, 44%]50%77%+0.30+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.35 [1.71, 2.98]1.47+2.30 [1.65, 2.93]3.15 [2.08, 4.08]27% [12%, 40%]50%73%+0.25+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.35 [1.66, 3.09]1.47+2.30 [1.61, 3.00]3.15 [2.03, 4.14]27% [5%, 41%]50%73%+0.25+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.35 [1.65, 3.05]1.47+2.30 [1.58, 2.99]3.15 [1.97, 4.20]27% [0%, 43%]50%73%+0.25+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC2.35 [1.67, 2.94]1.47+2.30 [1.64, 2.89]3.15 [2.01, 4.12]27% [0%, 43%]50%73%+0.25+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-04: -0.86 °F2026-08-10: +4.33 °F2026-08-11: -4.64 °F2026-08-12: +4.83 °F2026-08-13: +6.91 °F2026-08-14: +2.13 °F2026-08-15: +2.17 °F2026-08-16: -5.99 °F2026-08-17: +7.31 °F2026-08-18: +0.37 °F2026-08-19: +4.53 °F2026-08-20: -10.32 °F2026-08-21: +1.72 °F2026-08-22: -4.53 °F2026-08-23: +0.49 °F2026-08-24: -0.35 °F2026-08-25: -0.6 °F2026-08-26: -1.72 °F2026-08-27: -2.54 °F2026-08-28: -1.31 °F2026-08-29: +1.58 °F2026-08-30: +4.31 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+4.31
2026-08-29+1.58
2026-08-28-1.31
2026-08-27-2.54
2026-08-26-1.72
2026-08-25-0.60
2026-08-24-0.35
2026-08-23+0.49
2026-08-22-4.53
2026-08-21+1.72
2026-08-20-10.32
2026-08-19+4.53
2026-08-18+0.37
2026-08-17+7.31
2026-08-16-5.99
2026-08-15+2.17
2026-08-14+2.13
2026-08-13+6.91
2026-08-12+4.83
2026-08-11-4.64
2026-08-10+4.33
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04-0.86

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 3-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 6 °F: 4 days6 to 8 °F: 2 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.35 · P90 |e| 6.82 °F-200+20 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.003
-4.00-2.001
-2.00+0.005
+0.00+2.004
+2.00+4.002
+4.00+6.004
+6.00+8.002
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.34 +0.36

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +1.56 [-0.04, 2.68] no
NCEP GFS 22 -0.24 [-2.05, 1.12] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 +1.26 [-1.49, 2.61] no
Persistence (baseline) 22 +0.16 [-1.28, 1.66] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence