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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 3

KNYC · aifs_single · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC1.89 [1.51, 2.42]1.85-0.34 [-1.21, 0.34]2.36 [1.79, 2.98]26% [11%, 43%]63%78%+0.43+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC1.89 [1.50, 2.51]1.85-0.34 [-1.45, 0.56]2.36 [1.80, 3.02]26% [9%, 43%]63%78%+0.43+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC1.89 [1.45, 2.47]1.85-0.34 [-1.43, 0.65]2.36 [1.79, 3.01]26% [10%, 47%]63%78%+0.43+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 1 QC1.89 [1.39, 2.64]1.85-0.34 [-1.49, 0.63]2.36 [1.64, 3.10]26% [8%, 45%]63%78%+0.43+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 1 QC1.86 [1.46, 2.35]1.87+0.09 [-0.77, 0.81]2.37 [1.80, 2.91]37% [22%, 50%]74%78%+0.44+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 1 QC1.86 [1.47, 2.42]1.87+0.09 [-0.99, 1.04]2.37 [1.82, 2.98]37% [19%, 50%]74%78%+0.44+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 1 QC1.86 [1.49, 2.42]1.87+0.09 [-0.99, 1.10]2.37 [1.82, 2.98]37% [20%, 50%]74%78%+0.44+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 1 QC1.86 [1.39, 2.50]1.87+0.09 [-1.08, 1.10]2.37 [1.65, 3.03]37% [17%, 50%]74%78%+0.44+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC2.05 [1.70, 2.45]1.97-0.57 [-1.47, 0.36]2.46 [2.06, 2.89]30% [17%, 40%]52%78%+0.38+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC2.05 [1.70, 2.52]1.97-0.57 [-1.74, 0.61]2.46 [2.05, 2.95]30% [15%, 39%]52%78%+0.38+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.05 [1.65, 2.54]1.97-0.57 [-1.78, 0.77]2.46 [2.01, 2.99]30% [14%, 42%]52%78%+0.38+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.05 [1.68, 2.57]1.97-0.57 [-1.95, 0.65]2.46 [2.02, 2.95]30% [14%, 40%]52%78%+0.38+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 1 QC2.04 [1.75, 2.38]2.04-0.14 [-1.10, 0.82]2.46 [2.11, 2.84]22% [11%, 36%]59%74%+0.38+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 1 QC2.04 [1.75, 2.45]2.04-0.14 [-1.34, 1.12]2.46 [2.09, 2.90]22% [10%, 34%]59%74%+0.38+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 1 QC2.04 [1.75, 2.49]2.04-0.14 [-1.42, 1.25]2.46 [2.08, 2.93]22% [10%, 36%]59%74%+0.38+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 1 QC2.04 [1.74, 2.48]2.04-0.14 [-1.54, 1.18]2.46 [2.07, 2.91]22% [9%, 36%]59%74%+0.38+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC2.76 [2.03, 3.64]1.67+2.70 [1.93, 3.59]3.50 [2.42, 4.65]15% [0%, 38%]48%70%+0.12+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC2.76 [1.85, 3.68]1.67+2.70 [1.77, 3.67]3.50 [2.20, 4.68]15% [0%, 42%]48%70%+0.12+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.76 [1.69, 3.81]1.67+2.70 [1.66, 3.73]3.50 [1.92, 4.76]15% [0%, 42%]48%70%+0.12+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.76 [1.81, 3.68]1.67+2.70 [1.72, 3.65]3.50 [2.16, 4.74]15% [0%, 45%]48%70%+0.12+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 1 QC2.90 [2.11, 3.80]1.69+2.84 [2.03, 3.76]3.62 [2.53, 4.77]11% [0%, 33%]41%67%+0.08+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 1 QC2.90 [1.91, 3.83]1.69+2.84 [1.84, 3.81]3.62 [2.29, 4.80]11% [0%, 35%]41%67%+0.08+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 1 QC2.90 [1.73, 3.94]1.69+2.84 [1.71, 3.87]3.62 [1.96, 4.88]11% [0%, 35%]41%67%+0.08+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 1 QC2.90 [1.88, 3.82]1.69+2.84 [1.79, 3.79]3.62 [2.27, 4.87]11% [0%, 39%]41%67%+0.08+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC2.89 [2.31, 3.68]1.52+2.71 [1.91, 3.57]3.49 [2.59, 4.57]11% [0%, 27%]41%63%+0.08+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC2.89 [2.30, 3.72]1.52+2.71 [1.83, 3.61]3.49 [2.58, 4.67]11% [0%, 29%]41%63%+0.08+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.89 [2.28, 3.74]1.52+2.71 [1.80, 3.69]3.49 [2.57, 4.66]11% [0%, 29%]41%63%+0.08+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.89 [2.28, 3.73]1.52+2.71 [1.78, 3.71]3.49 [2.56, 4.69]11% [0%, 31%]41%63%+0.08+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 1 QC3.03 [2.44, 3.83]1.53+2.85 [2.03, 3.72]3.62 [2.72, 4.70]7% [0%, 26%]30%63%+0.04+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 1 QC3.03 [2.41, 3.86]1.53+2.85 [1.95, 3.77]3.62 [2.69, 4.79]7% [0%, 29%]30%63%+0.04+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 1 QC3.03 [2.38, 3.88]1.53+2.85 [1.89, 3.82]3.62 [2.67, 4.79]7% [0%, 29%]30%63%+0.04+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 1 QC3.03 [2.39, 3.83]1.53+2.85 [1.88, 3.82]3.62 [2.69, 4.82]7% [0%, 29%]30%63%+0.04+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KNYC, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -1.4 °F2026-08-05: -5.5 °F2026-08-06: -1.3 °F2026-08-07: -3.92 °F2026-08-08: +0.76 °F2026-08-09: +0.29 °F2026-08-10: +2.46 °F2026-08-11: +3.01 °F2026-08-12: +0.35 °F2026-08-13: +0.22 °F2026-08-14: -0.63 °F2026-08-15: -2.13 °F2026-08-16: -1.25 °F2026-08-17: +5.41 °F2026-08-18: -3 °F2026-08-19: -1.56 °F2026-08-20: -0.91 °F2026-08-21: +1.37 °F2026-08-22: +1.3 °F2026-08-23: -1.01 °F2026-08-24: -1.22 °F2026-08-25: -1.89 °F2026-08-26: -2.06 °F2026-08-27: +0.35 °F2026-08-28: -2.32 °F2026-08-29: +1.29 °F2026-08-30: +4.05 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+4.05
2026-08-29+1.29
2026-08-28-2.32
2026-08-27+0.35
2026-08-26-2.06
2026-08-25-1.89
2026-08-24-1.22
2026-08-23-1.01
2026-08-22+1.30
2026-08-21+1.37
2026-08-20-0.91
2026-08-19-1.56
2026-08-18-3.00
2026-08-17+5.41
2026-08-16-1.25
2026-08-15-2.13
2026-08-14-0.63
2026-08-13+0.22
2026-08-12+0.35
2026-08-11+3.01
2026-08-10+2.46
2026-08-09+0.29
2026-08-08+0.76
2026-08-07-3.92
2026-08-06-1.30
2026-08-05-5.50
2026-08-04-1.40

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KNYC, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 7 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 5 days1 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.37 · P90 |e| 3.97 °F-100+10 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.007
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.005
+1.00+2.003
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08271.89 -0.34

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 27 -1.91 [-2.81, -1.04] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -0.53 [-1.26, -0.09] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 -1.56 [-2.68, 0.04] no
Persistence (baseline) 27 -1.41 [-2.27, -0.49] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC aifs_single lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model aifs_single, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence