Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · NCEP GFS · lead day 9

KDFW · gfs · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.03 [1.80, 4.46]2.88+0.78 [-0.68, 2.40]4.13 [2.27, 5.68]19% [0%, 36%]38%62%+0.12+0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.03 [1.72, 4.63]2.88+0.78 [-0.69, 2.71]4.13 [2.17, 5.83]19% [0%, 38%]38%62%+0.12+0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.03 [1.63, 4.68]2.88+0.78 [-0.83, 2.59]4.13 [2.11, 5.97]19% [0%, 39%]38%62%+0.12+0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.03 [1.63, 4.88]2.88+0.78 [-0.86, 2.76]4.13 [2.07, 6.14]19% [0%, 39%]38%62%+0.12+0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d21 1 QC3.05 [1.85, 4.45]2.86+0.77 [-0.67, 2.30]4.10 [2.26, 5.66]19% [0%, 36%]38%62%+0.11+0.062026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d21 1 QC3.05 [1.77, 4.64]2.86+0.77 [-0.70, 2.54]4.10 [2.16, 5.82]19% [0%, 38%]38%62%+0.11+0.062026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d21 1 QC3.05 [1.69, 4.72]2.86+0.77 [-0.82, 2.48]4.10 [2.09, 5.94]19% [0%, 39%]38%62%+0.11+0.062026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall21 1 QC3.05 [1.68, 4.90]2.86+0.77 [-0.88, 2.72]4.10 [2.07, 6.11]19% [0%, 39%]38%62%+0.11+0.062026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.13 [1.55, 4.91]2.96+0.58 [-1.32, 2.60]4.23 [1.90, 5.93]24% [8%, 40%]43%62%+0.09+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.13 [1.50, 5.04]2.96+0.58 [-1.56, 2.89]4.23 [1.86, 5.99]24% [0%, 40%]43%62%+0.09+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.13 [1.41, 5.17]2.96+0.58 [-1.58, 2.89]4.23 [1.75, 6.27]24% [0%, 43%]43%62%+0.09+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.13 [1.47, 5.22]2.96+0.58 [-1.71, 3.04]4.23 [1.80, 6.28]24% [0%, 43%]43%62%+0.09+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC3.13 [1.60, 4.89]2.99+0.54 [-1.40, 2.60]4.25 [1.93, 6.00]24% [8%, 40%]38%62%+0.09+0.012026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC3.13 [1.51, 5.01]2.99+0.54 [-1.64, 2.87]4.25 [1.88, 6.06]24% [0%, 40%]38%62%+0.09+0.012026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC3.13 [1.44, 5.16]2.99+0.54 [-1.68, 2.84]4.25 [1.78, 6.34]24% [0%, 43%]38%62%+0.09+0.012026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC3.13 [1.51, 5.22]2.99+0.54 [-1.85, 2.96]4.25 [1.87, 6.36]24% [0%, 43%]38%62%+0.09+0.012026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.58 [2.98, 4.19]1.75+2.80 [1.54, 3.99]3.84 [3.21, 4.49]0% [0%, 0%]14%38%-0.21+0.402026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.58 [2.72, 4.33]1.75+2.80 [1.50, 4.28]3.84 [2.89, 4.62]0% [0%, 0%]14%38%-0.21+0.402026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.58 [2.72, 4.38]1.75+2.80 [1.37, 4.27]3.84 [2.89, 4.67]0% [0%, 0%]14%38%-0.21+0.402026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.58 [2.77, 4.38]1.75+2.80 [1.36, 4.34]3.84 [2.97, 4.58]0% [0%, 0%]14%38%-0.21+0.402026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d21 1 QC4.05 [3.45, 4.63]2.05+3.25 [2.01, 4.50]4.35 [3.72, 4.99]0% [0%, 0%]10%24%-0.37+0.292026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d21 1 QC4.05 [3.21, 4.82]2.05+3.25 [1.92, 4.78]4.35 [3.47, 5.20]0% [0%, 0%]10%24%-0.37+0.292026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d21 1 QC4.05 [3.23, 4.79]2.05+3.25 [1.88, 4.75]4.35 [3.50, 5.16]0% [0%, 0%]10%24%-0.37+0.292026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall21 1 QC4.05 [3.25, 4.82]2.05+3.25 [1.91, 4.78]4.35 [3.51, 5.16]0% [0%, 0%]10%24%-0.37+0.292026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.87 [2.75, 5.65]2.84+2.67 [0.66, 5.20]4.77 [3.15, 6.61]19% [7%, 32%]29%43%-0.31+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.87 [2.71, 6.24]2.84+2.67 [0.42, 6.23]4.77 [3.09, 7.00]19% [0%, 31%]29%43%-0.31+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.87 [2.65, 6.09]2.84+2.67 [0.43, 5.97]4.77 [3.04, 7.06]19% [0%, 32%]29%43%-0.31+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.87 [2.69, 6.20]2.84+2.67 [0.03, 5.94]4.77 [3.08, 6.96]19% [0%, 33%]29%43%-0.31+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC4.36 [3.47, 5.93]2.84+3.10 [0.94, 5.55]4.98 [3.80, 6.64]5% [0%, 13%]19%29%-0.48+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC4.36 [3.43, 6.37]2.84+3.10 [0.78, 6.37]4.98 [3.74, 7.06]5% [0%, 13%]19%29%-0.48+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC4.36 [3.38, 6.25]2.84+3.10 [0.55, 6.20]4.98 [3.73, 6.99]5% [0%, 14%]19%29%-0.48+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC4.36 [3.38, 6.31]2.84+3.10 [0.06, 6.21]4.98 [3.74, 7.01]5% [0%, 14%]19%29%-0.48+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-10: +4.41 °F2026-08-11: +0.57 °F2026-08-12: +1.57 °F2026-08-13: +0.02 °F2026-08-14: +3.16 °F2026-08-15: +2.86 °F2026-08-16: -0.28 °F2026-08-17: -1.04 °F2026-08-18: +2.29 °F2026-08-19: -1.19 °F2026-08-20: +0.6 °F2026-08-21: +8.49 °F2026-08-22: -2.02 °F2026-08-23: -11.9 °F2026-08-24: -6.15 °F2026-08-25: +3.82 °F2026-08-26: +3.34 °F2026-08-27: -1.09 °F2026-08-28: +2.93 °F2026-08-29: +2.66 °F2026-08-30: +3.33 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+3.33
2026-08-29+2.66
2026-08-28+2.93
2026-08-27-1.09
2026-08-26+3.34
2026-08-25+3.82
2026-08-24-6.15
2026-08-23-11.90
2026-08-22-2.02
2026-08-21+8.49
2026-08-20+0.60
2026-08-19-1.19
2026-08-18+2.29
2026-08-17-1.04
2026-08-16-0.28
2026-08-15+2.86
2026-08-14+3.16
2026-08-13+0.02
2026-08-12+1.57
2026-08-11+0.57
2026-08-10+4.41

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 9-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 4 °F: 8 days4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 1 day10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.66 · P90 |e| 6.15 °F-200+20 °Fn = 21 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.000
-4.00-2.001
-2.00+0.004
+0.00+2.004
+2.00+4.008
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.001
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08213.03 +0.78

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
NCEP GFS2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
NCEP GFS2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
NCEP GFS2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 21 -2.17 [-3.92, -0.11] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -5.31 [-6.70, -3.86] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 16 +0.88 [-0.39, 2.66] no
Persistence (baseline) 21 -0.39 [-1.38, 0.69] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW gfs lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model gfs, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence