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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 9

KDFW · ifs_hres · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC2.59 [1.44, 3.46]2.56-1.05 [-2.07, 0.41]3.44 [1.58, 4.40]31% [18%, 50%]56%69%+0.34+0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC2.59 [1.37, 3.56]2.56-1.05 [-2.05, 1.51]3.44 [1.55, 4.49]31% [6%, 50%]56%69%+0.34+0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC2.59 [1.40, 3.55]2.56-1.05 [-2.15, 1.24]3.44 [1.55, 4.48]31% [8%, 50%]56%69%+0.34+0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall16 1 QC2.59 [1.40, 3.57]2.56-1.05 [-2.13, 1.24]3.44 [1.55, 4.64]31% [11%, 50%]56%69%+0.34+0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d16 1 QC2.68 [1.64, 3.45]2.55-1.43 [-2.49, 0.10]3.56 [1.79, 4.49]25% [8%, 43%]56%75%+0.32+0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d16 1 QC2.68 [1.50, 3.49]2.55-1.43 [-2.42, 1.28]3.56 [1.50, 4.54]25% [0%, 50%]56%75%+0.32+0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d16 1 QC2.68 [1.50, 3.52]2.55-1.43 [-2.57, 1.01]3.56 [1.50, 4.53]25% [0%, 50%]56%75%+0.32+0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall16 1 QC2.68 [1.50, 3.55]2.55-1.43 [-2.48, 1.01]3.56 [1.50, 4.68]25% [0%, 50%]56%75%+0.32+0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC3.89 [1.83, 5.18]3.54-2.06 [-3.26, -0.22]4.78 [2.14, 5.91]7% [0%, 17%]33%47%+0.03-0.002026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC3.89 [1.24, 5.28]3.54-2.06 [-3.26, 1.22]4.78 [1.24, 5.98]7% [0%, 17%]33%47%+0.03-0.002026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC3.89 [1.27, 5.30]3.54-2.06 [-3.34, 1.22]4.78 [1.27, 5.98]7% [0%, 17%]33%47%+0.03-0.002026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall15 1 QC3.89 [1.27, 5.28]3.54-2.06 [-3.24, 1.22]4.78 [1.27, 5.98]7% [0%, 17%]33%47%+0.03-0.002026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d15 1 QC4.14 [1.87, 5.52]3.67-2.51 [-3.79, -0.58]5.15 [2.29, 6.37]20% [0%, 50%]27%53%-0.03-0.042026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d15 1 QC4.14 [1.12, 5.61]3.67-2.51 [-3.73, 1.00]5.15 [1.14, 6.38]20% [0%, 83%]27%53%-0.03-0.042026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d15 1 QC4.14 [1.27, 5.52]3.67-2.51 [-3.87, 1.00]5.15 [1.30, 6.36]20% [0%, 69%]27%53%-0.03-0.042026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall15 1 QC4.14 [1.27, 5.54]3.67-2.51 [-3.73, 1.00]5.15 [1.30, 6.35]20% [0%, 75%]27%53%-0.03-0.042026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC4.25 [3.66, 5.11]1.82+4.05 [3.34, 5.11]4.65 [3.95, 5.46]0% [0%, 0%]19%31%-0.45+0.382026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC4.25 [3.68, 5.16]1.82+4.05 [3.31, 5.16]4.65 [3.98, 5.52]0% [0%, 0%]19%31%-0.45+0.382026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC4.25 [3.66, 5.15]1.82+4.05 [3.28, 5.15]4.65 [3.91, 5.46]0% [0%, 0%]19%31%-0.45+0.382026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall16 1 QC4.25 [3.64, 5.19]1.82+4.05 [3.33, 5.19]4.65 [3.91, 5.55]0% [0%, 0%]19%31%-0.45+0.382026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d16 1 QC4.39 [3.82, 5.23]1.84+4.23 [3.56, 5.23]4.80 [4.18, 5.52]0% [0%, 0%]19%25%-0.50+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d16 1 QC4.39 [3.86, 5.26]1.84+4.23 [3.54, 5.26]4.80 [4.22, 5.59]0% [0%, 0%]19%25%-0.50+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d16 1 QC4.39 [3.80, 5.26]1.84+4.23 [3.52, 5.26]4.80 [4.14, 5.59]0% [0%, 0%]19%25%-0.50+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall16 1 QC4.39 [3.81, 5.29]1.84+4.23 [3.59, 5.29]4.80 [4.14, 5.61]0% [0%, 0%]19%25%-0.50+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC4.49 [3.72, 5.65]1.95+4.13 [3.14, 5.65]4.88 [3.84, 6.02]0% [0%, 0%]13%20%-0.57+0.322026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC4.49 [3.73, 5.84]1.95+4.13 [3.15, 5.84]4.88 [3.85, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]13%20%-0.57+0.322026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC4.49 [3.69, 5.84]1.95+4.13 [3.15, 5.84]4.88 [3.76, 6.11]0% [0%, 0%]13%20%-0.57+0.322026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall15 1 QC4.49 [3.72, 5.92]1.95+4.13 [3.14, 5.92]4.88 [3.80, 6.23]0% [0%, 0%]13%20%-0.57+0.322026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d15 1 QC4.58 [3.91, 5.61]2.03+4.21 [3.29, 5.60]4.99 [4.08, 6.02]7% [0%, 18%]13%20%-0.60+0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d15 1 QC4.58 [3.92, 5.71]2.03+4.21 [3.34, 5.71]4.99 [4.09, 6.22]7% [0%, 20%]13%20%-0.60+0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d15 1 QC4.58 [3.91, 5.71]2.03+4.21 [3.32, 5.71]4.99 [3.98, 6.22]7% [0%, 20%]13%20%-0.60+0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall15 1 QC4.58 [3.92, 5.79]2.03+4.21 [3.33, 5.79]4.99 [3.97, 6.26]7% [0%, 18%]13%20%-0.60+0.302026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-10: +1.73 °F2026-08-16: -0.79 °F2026-08-17: -2.14 °F2026-08-18: -2.46 °F2026-08-19: +0.45 °F2026-08-20: -1.81 °F2026-08-21: -1.15 °F2026-08-22: -0.48 °F2026-08-23: -7.3 °F2026-08-24: -5.02 °F2026-08-25: +1.7 °F2026-08-26: +3.59 °F2026-08-27: +3.35 °F2026-08-28: +0.73 °F2026-08-29: -7.98 °F2026-08-30: +0.74 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.74
2026-08-29-7.98
2026-08-28+0.73
2026-08-27+3.35
2026-08-26+3.59
2026-08-25+1.70
2026-08-24-5.02
2026-08-23-7.30
2026-08-22-0.48
2026-08-21-1.15
2026-08-20-1.81
2026-08-19+0.45
2026-08-18-2.46
2026-08-17-2.14
2026-08-16-0.79
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10+1.73

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 9-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.77 · P90 |e| 6.16 °F-100+10 °Fn = 16 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.002
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08162.59 -1.05

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 16 -2.90 [-5.28, 0.25] no
NCEP GFS 16 -0.88 [-2.66, 0.39] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 16 -6.30 [-7.81, -2.26] yes
Persistence (baseline) 16 -1.35 [-2.63, 0.73] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW ifs_hres lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model ifs_hres, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence