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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · GraphCast (IFS init) · lead day 9

KDFW · graphcast_ifs · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC8.35 [6.69, 9.70]3.00-8.35 [-9.70, -6.69]9.16 [7.24, 10.55]0% [0%, 0%]0%5%-1.43+0.012026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC8.35 [6.20, 9.78]3.00-8.35 [-9.78, -6.20]9.16 [6.60, 10.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%5%-1.43+0.012026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC8.52 [6.96, 9.79]4.38-6.95 [-9.15, -3.34]9.32 [7.62, 10.53]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.69+0.172026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 1 QC8.52 [7.19, 9.82]4.38-6.95 [-9.14, -2.57]9.32 [7.85, 10.53]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.69+0.172026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d21 1 QC8.70 [7.05, 10.06]2.97-8.70 [-10.06, -7.05]9.46 [7.61, 10.87]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.54+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d21 1 QC8.70 [6.49, 10.12]2.97-8.70 [-10.12, -6.49]9.46 [6.94, 10.99]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.54+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 1 QC8.75 [7.25, 10.02]4.33-7.30 [-9.50, -3.71]9.55 [7.86, 10.77]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.74+0.182026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 1 QC8.75 [7.45, 9.98]4.33-7.30 [-9.49, -2.95]9.55 [8.06, 10.74]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.74+0.182026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC8.97 [7.49, 10.32]2.67-8.97 [-10.32, -7.49]9.51 [7.76, 10.87]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.62+0.122026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC8.97 [7.36, 10.34]2.67-8.97 [-10.34, -7.36]9.51 [7.55, 10.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.62+0.122026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d26 1 QC9.09 [7.66, 10.37]3.43-8.63 [-10.01, -6.79]9.91 [8.03, 11.53]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.02+0.252026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall26 1 QC9.09 [7.81, 10.42]3.43-8.63 [-10.10, -6.52]9.91 [8.26, 11.49]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.02+0.252026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC9.32 [7.84, 10.68]2.70-9.32 [-10.68, -7.84]9.83 [8.07, 11.21]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.72+0.112026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC9.32 [7.75, 10.70]2.70-9.32 [-10.70, -7.75]9.83 [7.93, 11.19]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.72+0.112026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d26 1 QC9.41 [7.99, 10.70]3.45-8.96 [-10.36, -7.12]10.21 [8.34, 11.79]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.09+0.252026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall26 1 QC9.41 [8.14, 10.69]3.45-8.96 [-10.48, -6.81]10.21 [8.54, 11.78]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.09+0.252026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.07 [1.03, 3.09]2.09-1.11 [-2.65, 0.57]2.73 [1.22, 3.72]43% [16%, 73%]52%81%+0.30+0.282026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.07 [0.97, 3.17]2.09-1.11 [-2.68, 0.91]2.73 [1.12, 3.77]43% [14%, 74%]52%81%+0.30+0.282026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.20 [1.38, 5.77]3.29+0.56 [-2.01, 4.41]4.88 [1.74, 7.75]37% [12%, 64%]44%70%+0.24+0.242026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.20 [1.37, 6.11]3.29+0.56 [-1.94, 4.87]4.88 [1.72, 8.05]37% [12%, 65%]44%70%+0.24+0.242026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d21 1 QC2.07 [1.06, 3.06]2.07-1.09 [-2.64, 0.59]2.72 [1.23, 3.69]38% [14%, 65%]52%81%+0.30+0.292026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d21 1 QC2.07 [1.01, 3.13]2.07-1.09 [-2.65, 0.94]2.72 [1.15, 3.75]38% [12%, 67%]52%81%+0.30+0.292026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 1 QC3.18 [1.41, 5.73]3.26+0.56 [-1.99, 4.34]4.83 [1.73, 7.65]33% [11%, 58%]44%70%+0.25+0.242026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 1 QC3.18 [1.39, 6.03]3.26+0.56 [-1.93, 4.83]4.83 [1.71, 7.95]33% [12%, 60%]44%70%+0.25+0.242026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.30 [1.06, 3.43]2.10-1.66 [-3.24, 0.07]3.04 [1.45, 4.11]38% [16%, 69%]43%71%+0.22+0.282026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.30 [0.94, 3.50]2.10-1.66 [-3.22, 0.45]3.04 [1.34, 4.15]38% [14%, 75%]43%71%+0.22+0.282026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d26 1 QC2.86 [1.43, 4.43]2.74-0.88 [-2.70, 1.34]3.70 [1.87, 5.11]31% [6%, 60%]38%62%+0.21+0.252026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall26 1 QC2.86 [1.46, 4.61]2.74-0.88 [-2.80, 1.64]3.70 [2.00, 5.23]31% [5%, 57%]38%62%+0.21+0.252026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC2.30 [1.09, 3.41]2.10-1.62 [-3.22, 0.13]3.02 [1.45, 4.10]38% [16%, 69%]43%71%+0.22+0.282026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC2.30 [0.99, 3.45]2.10-1.62 [-3.19, 0.50]3.02 [1.35, 4.14]38% [14%, 75%]43%71%+0.22+0.282026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d26 1 QC2.84 [1.44, 4.34]2.72-0.86 [-2.69, 1.33]3.66 [1.84, 4.96]31% [6%, 60%]38%62%+0.21+0.262026-01-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall26 1 QC2.84 [1.47, 4.52]2.72-0.86 [-2.80, 1.63]3.66 [1.98, 5.10]31% [5%, 57%]38%62%+0.21+0.262026-01-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-10: -2.89 °F2026-08-11: -9.6 °F2026-08-12: -6.08 °F2026-08-13: -4.32 °F2026-08-14: -6.12 °F2026-08-15: -6.91 °F2026-08-16: -8.51 °F2026-08-17: -11.66 °F2026-08-18: -8.28 °F2026-08-19: -10.06 °F2026-08-20: -12.12 °F2026-08-21: -3.69 °F2026-08-22: -8.77 °F2026-08-23: -14.6 °F2026-08-24: -14.25 °F2026-08-25: -6.51 °F2026-08-26: -7.06 °F2026-08-27: -5.82 °F2026-08-28: -3.11 °F2026-08-29: -17.01 °F2026-08-30: -7.9 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-7.90
2026-08-29-17.01
2026-08-28-3.11
2026-08-27-5.82
2026-08-26-7.06
2026-08-25-6.51
2026-08-24-14.25
2026-08-23-14.60
2026-08-22-8.77
2026-08-21-3.69
2026-08-20-12.12
2026-08-19-10.06
2026-08-18-8.28
2026-08-17-11.66
2026-08-16-8.51
2026-08-15-6.91
2026-08-14-6.12
2026-08-13-4.32
2026-08-12-6.08
2026-08-11-9.60
2026-08-10-2.89

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 9-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 1 day-16 to -14 °F: 3 days-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 3 days-10 to -8 °F: 4 days-8 to -6 °F: 7 days-6 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 1 day12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 7.9 · P90 |e| 14.39 °F-200+20 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.001
-16.00-14.003
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.003
-10.00-8.004
-8.00-6.007
-6.00-4.002
-4.00-2.003
-2.00+0.000
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.001
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08218.35 -8.35
2026-0169.11 -2.06

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-10 → 2026-08-30 27
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-10 → 2026-08-30 27
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-10 → 2026-08-30 26
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-10 → 2026-08-30 26

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means GraphCast (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 21 +3.14 [1.00, 5.26] yes
NCEP GFS 21 +5.31 [3.86, 6.70] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 16 +6.30 [2.26, 7.81] yes
Persistence (baseline) 21 +4.92 [4.00, 6.10] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW graphcast_ifs lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model graphcast_ifs, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence