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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 9

KDFW · aifs_single · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC5.21 [3.35, 7.05]4.15-4.33 [-6.41, -2.10]7.02 [4.58, 8.73]5% [0%, 14%]24%43%-0.52-0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC5.21 [2.92, 7.37]4.15-4.33 [-6.67, -2.12]7.02 [3.28, 8.94]5% [0%, 18%]24%43%-0.52-0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d21 1 QC5.21 [2.86, 7.42]4.15-4.33 [-6.68, -1.99]7.02 [3.23, 8.96]5% [0%, 17%]24%43%-0.52-0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall21 1 QC5.21 [2.76, 7.42]4.15-4.33 [-6.75, -1.80]7.02 [3.12, 9.05]5% [0%, 17%]24%43%-0.52-0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d21 1 QC5.59 [3.72, 7.44]4.11-4.90 [-6.96, -2.71]7.34 [4.86, 9.12]5% [0%, 14%]14%43%-0.63-0.362026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d21 1 QC5.59 [3.39, 7.70]4.11-4.90 [-7.16, -2.67]7.34 [3.64, 9.31]5% [0%, 18%]14%43%-0.63-0.362026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d21 1 QC5.59 [3.27, 7.70]4.11-4.90 [-7.22, -2.58]7.34 [3.59, 9.32]5% [0%, 17%]14%43%-0.63-0.362026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall21 1 QC5.59 [3.19, 7.78]4.11-4.90 [-7.31, -2.33]7.34 [3.53, 9.44]5% [0%, 17%]14%43%-0.63-0.362026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC5.11 [3.41, 7.02]3.24-4.96 [-6.75, -3.33]6.49 [4.25, 8.44]19% [4%, 33%]29%33%-0.49-0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC5.11 [3.30, 7.07]3.24-4.96 [-6.81, -3.27]6.49 [4.20, 8.56]19% [0%, 33%]29%33%-0.49-0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC5.11 [3.24, 7.18]3.24-4.96 [-6.87, -3.17]6.49 [4.08, 8.71]19% [0%, 34%]29%33%-0.49-0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC5.11 [3.28, 7.11]3.24-4.96 [-6.81, -3.26]6.49 [4.15, 8.81]19% [0%, 33%]29%33%-0.49-0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC5.62 [3.94, 7.47]3.23-5.55 [-7.33, -3.94]6.96 [4.72, 8.91]19% [8%, 29%]24%29%-0.64-0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC5.62 [3.86, 7.52]3.23-5.55 [-7.39, -3.86]6.96 [4.68, 9.02]19% [6%, 29%]24%29%-0.64-0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC5.62 [3.78, 7.61]3.23-5.55 [-7.44, -3.78]6.96 [4.54, 9.19]19% [0%, 29%]24%29%-0.64-0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC5.62 [3.83, 7.53]3.23-5.55 [-7.37, -3.83]6.96 [4.67, 9.26]19% [0%, 29%]24%29%-0.64-0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.16 [1.05, 3.33]1.96-1.48 [-2.74, -0.42]3.18 [1.35, 4.45]43% [25%, 62%]62%67%+0.27+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.16 [0.99, 3.44]1.96-1.48 [-2.73, -0.27]3.18 [1.11, 4.63]43% [25%, 67%]62%67%+0.27+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d21 1 QC2.16 [0.93, 3.44]1.96-1.48 [-2.85, -0.36]3.18 [1.07, 4.64]43% [25%, 67%]62%67%+0.27+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall21 1 QC2.16 [0.96, 3.45]1.96-1.48 [-3.15, -0.32]3.18 [1.09, 4.65]43% [25%, 67%]62%67%+0.27+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d21 1 QC2.28 [1.19, 3.45]1.96-1.68 [-2.95, -0.64]3.30 [1.47, 4.61]33% [21%, 44%]62%67%+0.23+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d21 1 QC2.28 [1.14, 3.56]1.96-1.68 [-2.93, -0.50]3.30 [1.22, 4.76]33% [20%, 44%]62%67%+0.23+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d21 1 QC2.28 [1.08, 3.57]1.96-1.68 [-3.06, -0.63]3.30 [1.18, 4.79]33% [20%, 46%]62%67%+0.23+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall21 1 QC2.28 [1.09, 3.58]1.96-1.68 [-3.36, -0.54]3.30 [1.19, 4.80]33% [20%, 44%]62%67%+0.23+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.44 [1.44, 3.37]1.95-1.72 [-2.86, -0.73]3.03 [1.66, 3.90]14% [0%, 25%]48%71%+0.17+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.44 [1.23, 3.49]1.95-1.72 [-2.85, -0.56]3.03 [1.38, 3.99]14% [0%, 25%]48%71%+0.17+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC2.44 [1.23, 3.49]1.95-1.72 [-2.98, -0.59]3.03 [1.41, 4.02]14% [0%, 28%]48%71%+0.17+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC2.44 [1.26, 3.61]1.95-1.72 [-3.33, -0.58]3.03 [1.45, 4.07]14% [0%, 29%]48%71%+0.17+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC2.56 [1.52, 3.53]1.92-1.94 [-3.08, -0.94]3.14 [1.73, 4.03]14% [0%, 25%]52%71%+0.13+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC2.56 [1.37, 3.64]1.92-1.94 [-3.08, -0.73]3.14 [1.47, 4.14]14% [0%, 25%]52%71%+0.13+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC2.56 [1.32, 3.65]1.92-1.94 [-3.23, -0.74]3.14 [1.48, 4.17]14% [0%, 28%]52%71%+0.13+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC2.56 [1.38, 3.75]1.92-1.94 [-3.57, -0.75]3.14 [1.54, 4.23]14% [0%, 29%]52%71%+0.13+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-10: -2.92 °F2026-08-11: -15.05 °F2026-08-12: -1.89 °F2026-08-13: -1.4 °F2026-08-14: -1.06 °F2026-08-15: -2.15 °F2026-08-16: -3.97 °F2026-08-17: -4.58 °F2026-08-18: -3.69 °F2026-08-19: -16.34 °F2026-08-20: -4.63 °F2026-08-21: +2.88 °F2026-08-22: -8.75 °F2026-08-23: -9.05 °F2026-08-24: -15.16 °F2026-08-25: -1.59 °F2026-08-26: +3.45 °F2026-08-27: +2.54 °F2026-08-28: +0.33 °F2026-08-29: -4.64 °F2026-08-30: -3.32 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.32
2026-08-29-4.64
2026-08-28+0.33
2026-08-27+2.54
2026-08-26+3.45
2026-08-25-1.59
2026-08-24-15.16
2026-08-23-9.05
2026-08-22-8.75
2026-08-21+2.88
2026-08-20-4.63
2026-08-19-16.34
2026-08-18-3.69
2026-08-17-4.58
2026-08-16-3.97
2026-08-15-2.15
2026-08-14-1.06
2026-08-13-1.40
2026-08-12-1.89
2026-08-11-15.05
2026-08-10-2.92

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 9-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 1 day-16 to -14 °F: 2 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 4 °F: 3 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.45 · P90 |e| 15.05 °F-200+20 °Fn = 21 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.001
-16.00-14.002
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.002
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.003
-4.00-2.005
-2.00+0.004
+0.00+2.001
+2.00+4.003
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08215.21 -4.33

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 21 +2.17 [0.11, 3.92] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -3.14 [-5.26, -1.00] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 16 +2.90 [-0.25, 5.28] no
Persistence (baseline) 21 +1.78 [0.37, 3.39] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW aifs_single lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model aifs_single, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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