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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · NCEP GFS · lead day 0

KDFW · gfs · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC1.41 [1.04, 1.83]1.31+0.65 [0.23, 1.06]1.98 [1.25, 2.78]43% [23%, 60%]83%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC1.41 [1.01, 1.85]1.31+0.65 [0.10, 1.11]1.98 [1.22, 2.75]43% [24%, 64%]83%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC1.41 [0.97, 1.87]1.31+0.65 [-0.01, 1.13]1.98 [1.18, 2.84]43% [24%, 64%]83%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall30 1 QC1.41 [1.00, 1.91]1.31+0.65 [0.11, 1.13]1.98 [1.19, 2.88]43% [22%, 64%]83%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d30 1 QC1.43 [1.06, 1.82]1.34+0.56 [0.14, 0.94]1.91 [1.26, 2.62]37% [20%, 53%]87%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d30 1 QC1.43 [1.05, 1.82]1.34+0.56 [0.04, 0.96]1.91 [1.24, 2.59]37% [17%, 57%]87%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d30 1 QC1.43 [1.03, 1.86]1.34+0.56 [-0.04, 0.99]1.91 [1.22, 2.69]37% [16%, 57%]87%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall30 1 QC1.43 [1.02, 1.91]1.34+0.56 [0.05, 0.99]1.91 [1.20, 2.70]37% [16%, 59%]87%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC3.02 [2.18, 3.87]1.26+3.02 [2.18, 3.87]3.41 [2.44, 4.19]7% [0%, 17%]27%57%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC3.02 [2.14, 4.12]1.26+3.02 [2.14, 4.12]3.41 [2.40, 4.37]7% [0%, 19%]27%57%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC3.02 [2.09, 4.24]1.26+3.02 [2.09, 4.24]3.41 [2.36, 4.43]7% [0%, 19%]27%57%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall30 1 QC3.02 [2.07, 4.12]1.26+3.02 [2.07, 4.12]3.41 [2.31, 4.34]7% [0%, 19%]27%57%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d30 1 QC3.49 [2.69, 4.30]1.31+3.49 [2.69, 4.30]3.86 [2.94, 4.63]7% [0%, 13%]17%43%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d30 1 QC3.49 [2.57, 4.55]1.31+3.49 [2.57, 4.55]3.86 [2.86, 4.83]7% [0%, 18%]17%43%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d30 1 QC3.49 [2.56, 4.70]1.31+3.49 [2.56, 4.70]3.86 [2.83, 4.89]7% [0%, 17%]17%43%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall30 1 QC3.49 [2.57, 4.63]1.31+3.49 [2.57, 4.63]3.86 [2.83, 4.87]7% [0%, 17%]17%43%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: +2.5 °F2026-08-02: +0.61 °F2026-08-03: -0.46 °F2026-08-04: +1.78 °F2026-08-05: +1.87 °F2026-08-06: +1.18 °F2026-08-07: +2.05 °F2026-08-08: -1.62 °F2026-08-09: +1.39 °F2026-08-10: +1.64 °F2026-08-11: -0.73 °F2026-08-12: +1.23 °F2026-08-13: +1.56 °F2026-08-14: +0.25 °F2026-08-15: +1.25 °F2026-08-16: -0.19 °F2026-08-17: -1.79 °F2026-08-18: +0.83 °F2026-08-19: +0.14 °F2026-08-20: -0.14 °F2026-08-21: +7.56 °F2026-08-22: +0.6 °F2026-08-23: -1.44 °F2026-08-24: -2.69 °F2026-08-25: +3.25 °F2026-08-26: +0.63 °F2026-08-27: +0.03 °F2026-08-28: -0.93 °F2026-08-29: -1.44 °F2026-08-30: +0.63 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.63
2026-08-29-1.44
2026-08-28-0.93
2026-08-27+0.03
2026-08-26+0.63
2026-08-25+3.25
2026-08-24-2.69
2026-08-23-1.44
2026-08-22+0.60
2026-08-21+7.56
2026-08-20-0.14
2026-08-19+0.14
2026-08-18+0.83
2026-08-17-1.79
2026-08-16-0.19
2026-08-15+1.25
2026-08-14+0.25
2026-08-13+1.56
2026-08-12+1.23
2026-08-11-0.73
2026-08-10+1.64
2026-08-09+1.39
2026-08-08-1.62
2026-08-07+2.05
2026-08-06+1.18
2026-08-05+1.87
2026-08-04+1.78
2026-08-03-0.46
2026-08-02+0.61
2026-08-01+2.50

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 1 °F: 8 days1 to 2 °F: 8 days2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.24 · P90 |e| 2.52 °F-100+10 °Fn = 30 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.005
+0.00+1.008
+1.00+2.008
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08301.41 +0.65

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30
NCEP GFS2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 30 -1.36 [-2.05, -0.77] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -3.65 [-4.19, -3.11] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -4.36 [-4.93, -3.63] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -2.92 [-2.92, -2.92] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -4.31 [-4.97, -3.44] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -3.83 [-4.08, -3.57] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 28 -3.32 [-4.40, -2.17] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 24 -1.01 [-1.61, -0.20] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -1.23 [-1.45, -1.00] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -3.26 [-4.10, -2.36] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW gfs lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model gfs, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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