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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KDFW · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.45 [1.89, 2.84]1.58-1.62 [-2.27, -0.86]2.67 [2.13, 3.06]12% [0%, 29%]29%71%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.45 [1.76, 2.90]1.58-1.62 [-2.35, -0.91]2.67 [1.97, 3.10]12% [0%, 33%]29%71%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.45 [1.77, 2.91]1.58-1.62 [-2.36, -0.81]2.67 [1.96, 3.11]12% [0%, 30%]29%71%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.45 [1.77, 2.93]1.58-1.62 [-2.37, -0.75]2.67 [1.97, 3.14]12% [0%, 33%]29%71%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC2.66 [2.12, 3.07]1.67-1.97 [-2.68, -1.20]2.93 [2.39, 3.30]12% [0%, 29%]29%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC2.66 [1.99, 3.14]1.67-1.97 [-2.78, -1.29]2.93 [2.28, 3.37]12% [0%, 33%]29%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC2.66 [2.04, 3.13]1.67-1.97 [-2.81, -1.18]2.93 [2.30, 3.38]12% [0%, 30%]29%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC2.66 [2.01, 3.18]1.67-1.97 [-2.86, -1.12]2.93 [2.30, 3.39]12% [0%, 33%]29%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.17 [1.62, 2.87]1.09+2.17 [1.62, 2.87]2.58 [1.78, 3.32]12% [0%, 26%]62%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.17 [1.67, 3.03]1.09+2.17 [1.67, 3.03]2.58 [1.83, 3.58]12% [0%, 27%]62%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.17 [1.65, 3.01]1.09+2.17 [1.65, 3.01]2.58 [1.77, 3.48]12% [0%, 27%]62%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.17 [1.62, 3.26]1.09+2.17 [1.62, 3.26]2.58 [1.76, 3.82]12% [0%, 29%]62%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC2.36 [1.84, 2.93]1.15+2.36 [1.84, 2.93]2.75 [2.02, 3.36]12% [0%, 26%]46%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC2.36 [1.86, 3.01]1.15+2.36 [1.86, 3.01]2.75 [2.04, 3.43]12% [0%, 27%]46%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC2.36 [1.86, 3.03]1.15+2.36 [1.86, 3.03]2.75 [2.02, 3.46]12% [0%, 27%]46%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC2.36 [1.83, 3.24]1.15+2.36 [1.83, 3.24]2.75 [2.01, 3.66]12% [0%, 29%]46%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-01: -2.35 °F2026-08-08: -0.6 °F2026-08-09: -2.39 °F2026-08-10: -0.5 °F2026-08-11: -2.47 °F2026-08-12: -1.83 °F2026-08-13: -1.45 °F2026-08-14: -2.54 °F2026-08-15: -2.88 °F2026-08-16: -2.33 °F2026-08-17: -3.15 °F2026-08-18: -1.43 °F2026-08-19: -2.47 °F2026-08-20: -2.43 °F2026-08-21: +4.41 °F2026-08-22: +0.67 °F2026-08-23: -4.87 °F2026-08-24: -3.16 °F2026-08-25: +2.61 °F2026-08-26: +2.25 °F2026-08-27: -3.24 °F2026-08-28: -3.28 °F2026-08-29: -3.61 °F2026-08-30: -1.81 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.81
2026-08-29-3.61
2026-08-28-3.28
2026-08-27-3.24
2026-08-26+2.25
2026-08-25+2.61
2026-08-24-3.16
2026-08-23-4.87
2026-08-22+0.67
2026-08-21+4.41
2026-08-20-2.43
2026-08-19-2.47
2026-08-18-1.43
2026-08-17-3.15
2026-08-16-2.33
2026-08-15-2.88
2026-08-14-2.54
2026-08-13-1.45
2026-08-12-1.83
2026-08-11-2.47
2026-08-10-0.50
2026-08-09-2.39
2026-08-08-0.60
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-2.35

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 0-5 to -4.5 °F: 1 day-4.5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 1 day-3.5 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 2 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 2 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 1 day-0.5 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 1 day2.5 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 1 day4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.45 · P90 |e| 3.51 °F-50+5 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.501
-4.50-4.000
-4.00-3.501
-3.50-3.004
-3.00-2.502
-2.50-2.006
-2.00-1.502
-1.50-1.002
-1.00-0.501
-0.50+0.001
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.001
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.501
+2.50+3.001
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.501
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08242.45 -1.62

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 24 -0.43 [-1.17, 0.14] no
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -1.97 [-2.01, -1.93] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -2.46 [-2.59, -2.39] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -1.24 [-1.74, -0.74] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -2.41 [-2.62, -2.26] yes
NCEP GFS 24 +1.01 [0.20, 1.61] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -2.15 [-2.90, -1.39] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -2.56 [-4.05, -1.10] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +0.45 [0.18, 0.72] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -1.36 [-1.75, -1.16] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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