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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · GraphCast (IFS init) · lead day 0

KDFW · graphcast_ifs · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC4.81 [4.11, 5.56]1.32-4.72 [-5.53, -3.91]5.03 [4.35, 5.70]0% [0%, 0%]7%7%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC4.81 [4.07, 5.60]1.32-4.72 [-5.59, -3.83]5.03 [4.31, 5.70]0% [0%, 0%]7%7%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d34 1 QC5.23 [4.29, 6.20]1.51-5.15 [-6.20, -4.08]5.54 [4.54, 6.48]0% [0%, 0%]6%6%——2026-01-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall34 1 QC5.23 [4.32, 6.16]1.51-5.15 [-6.16, -4.17]5.54 [4.53, 6.41]0% [0%, 0%]6%6%——2026-01-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d28 1 QC5.16 [4.42, 5.93]1.37-5.08 [-5.92, -4.23]5.40 [4.70, 6.08]0% [0%, 0%]4%7%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d28 1 QC5.16 [4.34, 5.96]1.37-5.08 [-5.95, -4.14]5.40 [4.62, 6.08]0% [0%, 0%]4%7%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d34 1 QC5.61 [4.57, 6.69]1.58-5.55 [-6.69, -4.42]5.94 [4.88, 6.94]0% [0%, 0%]3%6%——2026-01-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall34 1 QC5.61 [4.65, 6.57]1.58-5.55 [-6.57, -4.53]5.94 [4.95, 6.82]0% [0%, 0%]3%6%——2026-01-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC1.13 [0.78, 1.54]0.86+0.83 [0.43, 1.37]1.45 [0.89, 1.93]61% [42%, 77%]89%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC1.13 [0.81, 1.66]0.86+0.83 [0.44, 1.50]1.45 [0.91, 2.10]61% [33%, 76%]89%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d34 1 QC1.80 [0.93, 3.27]1.61+1.55 [0.59, 3.16]2.77 [1.11, 4.38]53% [25%, 71%]76%82%——2026-01-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall34 1 QC1.80 [0.92, 3.27]1.61+1.55 [0.59, 3.15]2.77 [1.11, 4.36]53% [25%, 71%]76%82%——2026-01-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d28 1 QC1.17 [0.84, 1.49]0.89+0.76 [0.37, 1.24]1.47 [1.06, 1.82]57% [38%, 76%]82%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d28 1 QC1.17 [0.87, 1.61]0.89+0.76 [0.37, 1.35]1.47 [1.07, 1.93]57% [33%, 74%]82%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d34 1 QC1.79 [0.99, 3.13]1.57+1.46 [0.54, 2.99]2.67 [1.24, 4.20]50% [25%, 68%]71%82%——2026-01-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall34 1 QC1.79 [0.99, 3.17]1.57+1.46 [0.52, 2.97]2.67 [1.23, 4.14]50% [25%, 68%]71%82%——2026-01-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -3.04 °F2026-08-02: -3.88 °F2026-08-03: -5.76 °F2026-08-04: -3.66 °F2026-08-05: -4.35 °F2026-08-06: -3.52 °F2026-08-07: -4.03 °F2026-08-08: -6.25 °F2026-08-09: -5.3 °F2026-08-10: -6.54 °F2026-08-11: -6.51 °F2026-08-12: -5.43 °F2026-08-13: -6.92 °F2026-08-14: -6.08 °F2026-08-15: -6.08 °F2026-08-16: -5.88 °F2026-08-17: -6.34 °F2026-08-18: -3.4 °F2026-08-19: -4.63 °F2026-08-20: -4.8 °F2026-08-21: +1.32 °F2026-08-22: -3.16 °F2026-08-23: -6.81 °F2026-08-24: -5.15 °F2026-08-25: -1.81 °F2026-08-28: -5.29 °F2026-08-29: -4.77 °F2026-08-30: -4 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.00
2026-08-29-4.77
2026-08-28-5.29
2026-08-27—
2026-08-26—
2026-08-25-1.81
2026-08-24-5.15
2026-08-23-6.81
2026-08-22-3.16
2026-08-21+1.32
2026-08-20-4.80
2026-08-19-4.63
2026-08-18-3.40
2026-08-17-6.34
2026-08-16-5.88
2026-08-15-6.08
2026-08-14-6.08
2026-08-13-6.92
2026-08-12-5.43
2026-08-11-6.51
2026-08-10-6.54
2026-08-09-5.30
2026-08-08-6.25
2026-08-07-4.03
2026-08-06-3.52
2026-08-05-4.35
2026-08-04-3.66
2026-08-03-5.76
2026-08-02-3.88
2026-08-01-3.04

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 2 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 9 days-6 to -5 °F: 7 days-5 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -3 °F: 7 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.29 · P90 |e| 6.88 °F-100+10 °Fn = 34 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.002
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.009
-6.00-5.007
-5.00-4.006
-4.00-3.007
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08284.81 -4.72
2026-0167.19 -7.19

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-01 → 2026-08-30 34
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-01 → 2026-08-30 34

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means GraphCast (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 28 +2.25 [1.52, 3.03] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -0.30 [-0.85, 0.26] no
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -0.67 [-0.88, -0.26] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +0.43 [0.42, 0.45] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -0.62 [-0.90, -0.07] yes
NCEP GFS 28 +3.32 [2.17, 4.40] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -0.47 [-0.71, -0.23] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +2.56 [1.10, 4.05] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +2.12 [1.88, 2.37] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +0.43 [0.14, 1.01] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW graphcast_ifs lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model graphcast_ifs, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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