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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 0

KDFW · aifs_single · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC2.77 [2.43, 3.23]1.16-2.61 [-3.05, -2.23]3.10 [2.61, 3.65]3% [0%, 10%]33%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC2.77 [2.37, 3.31]1.16-2.61 [-3.08, -2.18]3.10 [2.53, 3.74]3% [0%, 10%]33%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC2.77 [2.36, 3.35]1.16-2.61 [-3.16, -2.15]3.10 [2.49, 3.80]3% [0%, 10%]33%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall30 1 QC2.77 [2.35, 3.28]1.16-2.61 [-3.10, -2.15]3.10 [2.50, 3.74]3% [0%, 10%]33%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d30 1 QC3.25 [2.88, 3.68]1.17-3.17 [-3.59, -2.76]3.59 [3.12, 4.13]7% [0%, 17%]20%40%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d30 1 QC3.25 [2.84, 3.70]1.17-3.17 [-3.59, -2.73]3.59 [3.07, 4.20]7% [0%, 17%]20%40%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d30 1 QC3.25 [2.82, 3.79]1.17-3.17 [-3.67, -2.70]3.59 [3.01, 4.22]7% [0%, 17%]20%40%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall30 1 QC3.25 [2.82, 3.69]1.17-3.17 [-3.61, -2.69]3.59 [3.06, 4.17]7% [0%, 19%]20%40%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC1.68 [1.33, 2.01]0.99-1.42 [-1.85, -0.99]1.93 [1.58, 2.26]27% [7%, 47%]60%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC1.68 [1.30, 2.05]0.99-1.42 [-1.86, -0.87]1.93 [1.53, 2.30]27% [3%, 47%]60%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC1.68 [1.25, 2.08]0.99-1.42 [-1.91, -0.90]1.93 [1.48, 2.31]27% [4%, 49%]60%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall30 1 QC1.68 [1.28, 2.03]0.99-1.42 [-1.88, -0.86]1.93 [1.52, 2.28]27% [0%, 50%]60%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d30 1 QC1.82 [1.43, 2.18]1.00-1.63 [-2.08, -1.20]2.09 [1.70, 2.44]23% [7%, 43%]57%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d30 1 QC1.82 [1.39, 2.21]1.00-1.63 [-2.08, -1.08]2.09 [1.66, 2.46]23% [0%, 43%]57%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d30 1 QC1.82 [1.35, 2.26]1.00-1.63 [-2.12, -1.09]2.09 [1.61, 2.48]23% [0%, 43%]57%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall30 1 QC1.82 [1.37, 2.19]1.00-1.63 [-2.10, -1.10]2.09 [1.62, 2.45]23% [0%, 44%]57%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -2.4 °F2026-08-02: -1.69 °F2026-08-03: -3.25 °F2026-08-04: -1.88 °F2026-08-05: -2.05 °F2026-08-06: -2.84 °F2026-08-07: -2.39 °F2026-08-08: -5.54 °F2026-08-09: -2.74 °F2026-08-10: -0.96 °F2026-08-11: -1.37 °F2026-08-12: -1.2 °F2026-08-13: -2.99 °F2026-08-14: -4.4 °F2026-08-15: -2.67 °F2026-08-16: -2.85 °F2026-08-17: -3.27 °F2026-08-18: -1.48 °F2026-08-19: -2.67 °F2026-08-20: -1.9 °F2026-08-21: +1.21 °F2026-08-22: -2.82 °F2026-08-23: -3.65 °F2026-08-24: -4.71 °F2026-08-25: +1.12 °F2026-08-26: -3.98 °F2026-08-27: -7.39 °F2026-08-28: -2.43 °F2026-08-29: -3.39 °F2026-08-30: -1.84 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.84
2026-08-29-3.39
2026-08-28-2.43
2026-08-27-7.39
2026-08-26-3.98
2026-08-25+1.12
2026-08-24-4.71
2026-08-23-3.65
2026-08-22-2.82
2026-08-21+1.21
2026-08-20-1.90
2026-08-19-2.67
2026-08-18-1.48
2026-08-17-3.27
2026-08-16-2.85
2026-08-15-2.67
2026-08-14-4.40
2026-08-13-2.99
2026-08-12-1.20
2026-08-11-1.37
2026-08-10-0.96
2026-08-09-2.74
2026-08-08-5.54
2026-08-07-2.39
2026-08-06-2.84
2026-08-05-2.05
2026-08-04-1.88
2026-08-03-3.25
2026-08-02-1.69
2026-08-01-2.40

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 11 days-2 to -1 °F: 7 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.67 · P90 |e| 4.43 °F-100+10 °Fn = 30 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.0011
-2.00-1.007
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08302.77 -2.61

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -2.07 [-2.24, -1.90] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -2.80 [-3.43, -2.42] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -1.34 [-1.71, -0.97] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -2.75 [-3.47, -2.23] yes
NCEP GFS 30 +1.36 [0.77, 2.05] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -2.24 [-2.87, -1.62] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 28 -2.25 [-3.03, -1.52] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 24 +0.43 [-0.14, 1.17] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +0.35 [0.21, 0.50] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -1.70 [-2.60, -1.15] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW aifs_single lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model aifs_single, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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