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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · NCEP GFS · lead day 0

KMSY · gfs · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC5.06 [4.46, 5.68]1.82-4.80 [-5.46, -4.30]5.34 [4.71, 5.94]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC5.06 [4.41, 5.82]1.82-4.80 [-5.62, -4.08]5.34 [4.65, 6.07]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC5.06 [4.38, 5.90]1.82-4.80 [-5.77, -4.07]5.34 [4.62, 6.18]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall30 1 QC5.06 [4.43, 5.85]1.82-4.80 [-5.62, -4.05]5.34 [4.68, 6.05]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d30 1 QC5.17 [4.58, 5.76]1.80-4.91 [-5.53, -4.41]5.44 [4.82, 6.01]0% [0%, 0%]0%10%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d30 1 QC5.17 [4.54, 5.88]1.80-4.91 [-5.71, -4.20]5.44 [4.77, 6.14]0% [0%, 0%]0%10%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d30 1 QC5.17 [4.50, 5.99]1.80-4.91 [-5.83, -4.18]5.44 [4.73, 6.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%10%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall30 1 QC5.17 [4.56, 5.91]1.80-4.91 [-5.70, -4.16]5.44 [4.81, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]0%10%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC1.68 [1.18, 2.07]1.26+1.34 [0.91, 1.76]2.00 [1.61, 2.30]30% [13%, 57%]53%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC1.68 [1.23, 2.13]1.26+1.34 [0.82, 1.80]2.00 [1.63, 2.35]30% [9%, 55%]53%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC1.68 [1.19, 2.13]1.26+1.34 [0.80, 1.83]2.00 [1.56, 2.35]30% [8%, 57%]53%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall30 1 QC1.68 [1.21, 2.15]1.26+1.34 [0.81, 1.78]2.00 [1.61, 2.38]30% [8%, 55%]53%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d30 1 QC1.71 [1.20, 2.10]1.27+1.39 [0.96, 1.82]2.04 [1.64, 2.34]30% [13%, 57%]53%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d30 1 QC1.71 [1.24, 2.16]1.27+1.39 [0.86, 1.85]2.04 [1.66, 2.39]30% [9%, 55%]53%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d30 1 QC1.71 [1.20, 2.15]1.27+1.39 [0.86, 1.89]2.04 [1.59, 2.39]30% [8%, 57%]53%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall30 1 QC1.71 [1.22, 2.18]1.27+1.39 [0.86, 1.84]2.04 [1.65, 2.43]30% [8%, 55%]53%90%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSY, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -5.79 °F2026-08-02: +3.89 °F2026-08-03: -6.42 °F2026-08-04: -7.37 °F2026-08-05: -5.97 °F2026-08-06: -5.48 °F2026-08-07: -3.38 °F2026-08-08: -3.29 °F2026-08-09: -3.81 °F2026-08-10: -3.92 °F2026-08-11: -6.6 °F2026-08-12: -2.58 °F2026-08-13: -4.61 °F2026-08-14: -6.12 °F2026-08-15: -6.21 °F2026-08-16: -6.64 °F2026-08-17: -1.9 °F2026-08-18: -3.46 °F2026-08-19: -3.48 °F2026-08-20: -3.66 °F2026-08-21: -5.06 °F2026-08-22: -6.5 °F2026-08-23: -4.19 °F2026-08-24: -2.43 °F2026-08-25: -6.88 °F2026-08-26: -7.68 °F2026-08-27: -6.48 °F2026-08-28: -7.06 °F2026-08-29: -7.94 °F2026-08-30: -3.09 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.09
2026-08-29-7.94
2026-08-28-7.06
2026-08-27-6.48
2026-08-26-7.68
2026-08-25-6.88
2026-08-24-2.43
2026-08-23-4.19
2026-08-22-6.50
2026-08-21-5.06
2026-08-20-3.66
2026-08-19-3.48
2026-08-18-3.46
2026-08-17-1.90
2026-08-16-6.64
2026-08-15-6.21
2026-08-14-6.12
2026-08-13-4.61
2026-08-12-2.58
2026-08-11-6.60
2026-08-10-3.92
2026-08-09-3.81
2026-08-08-3.29
2026-08-07-3.38
2026-08-06-5.48
2026-08-05-5.97
2026-08-04-7.37
2026-08-03-6.42
2026-08-02+3.89
2026-08-01-5.79

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSY, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 4 days-7 to -6 °F: 8 days-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 8 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.27 · P90 |e| 7.09 °F-100+10 °Fn = 30 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.004
-7.00-6.008
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.008
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08305.06 -4.80

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30
NCEP GFS2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 30 +1.05 [0.46, 1.70] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -1.51 [-4.82, 1.79] no
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -0.63 [-3.78, 0.95] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +1.45 [-1.32, 4.22] no
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 +2.18 [0.78, 2.88] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -0.05 [-3.49, 3.39] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 28 +0.09 [-0.55, 0.98] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 24 +0.68 [0.20, 1.16] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +0.78 [-3.34, 4.91] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +1.77 [-1.79, 3.55] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY gfs lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/gfs/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model gfs, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/gfs/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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