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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KMSY · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC4.30 [3.55, 5.04]1.45-4.30 [-5.04, -3.55]4.75 [3.75, 5.65]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC4.30 [3.43, 5.18]1.45-4.30 [-5.18, -3.43]4.75 [3.63, 5.73]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC4.30 [3.38, 5.24]1.45-4.30 [-5.24, -3.38]4.75 [3.55, 5.78]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC4.30 [3.50, 5.20]1.45-4.30 [-5.20, -3.50]4.75 [3.69, 5.77]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC4.26 [3.49, 5.02]1.47-4.26 [-5.02, -3.49]4.72 [3.71, 5.63]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC4.26 [3.38, 5.18]1.47-4.26 [-5.18, -3.38]4.72 [3.58, 5.71]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC4.26 [3.32, 5.24]1.47-4.26 [-5.24, -3.32]4.72 [3.50, 5.77]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC4.26 [3.43, 5.18]1.47-4.26 [-5.18, -3.43]4.72 [3.64, 5.76]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.49 [2.96, 3.98]1.26+3.38 [2.57, 3.96]3.75 [3.23, 4.22]0% [0%, 0%]12%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.49 [2.83, 4.00]1.26+3.38 [2.34, 3.95]3.75 [3.05, 4.21]0% [0%, 0%]12%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.49 [2.83, 4.01]1.26+3.38 [2.39, 4.00]3.75 [3.05, 4.26]0% [0%, 0%]12%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.49 [2.66, 4.02]1.26+3.38 [2.15, 4.01]3.75 [2.91, 4.26]0% [0%, 0%]12%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC3.46 [2.93, 3.95]1.26+3.36 [2.54, 3.93]3.72 [3.20, 4.19]0% [0%, 0%]17%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC3.46 [2.80, 3.97]1.26+3.36 [2.33, 3.93]3.72 [3.03, 4.19]0% [0%, 0%]17%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC3.46 [2.80, 3.98]1.26+3.36 [2.37, 3.98]3.72 [3.03, 4.24]0% [0%, 0%]17%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC3.46 [2.62, 3.99]1.26+3.36 [2.12, 3.98]3.72 [2.87, 4.24]0% [0%, 0%]17%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-01: -3.77 °F2026-08-08: -1.76 °F2026-08-09: -3.19 °F2026-08-10: -6.44 °F2026-08-11: -3.97 °F2026-08-12: -5.58 °F2026-08-13: -5.06 °F2026-08-14: -4.09 °F2026-08-15: -4.6 °F2026-08-16: -3.71 °F2026-08-17: -1.97 °F2026-08-18: -4.77 °F2026-08-19: -3.36 °F2026-08-20: -2.93 °F2026-08-21: -3.16 °F2026-08-22: -3.49 °F2026-08-23: -2.49 °F2026-08-24: -1.35 °F2026-08-25: -11.48 °F2026-08-26: -5.34 °F2026-08-27: -3.51 °F2026-08-28: -6.71 °F2026-08-29: -5.49 °F2026-08-30: -4.98 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.98
2026-08-29-5.49
2026-08-28-6.71
2026-08-27-3.51
2026-08-26-5.34
2026-08-25-11.48
2026-08-24-1.35
2026-08-23-2.49
2026-08-22-3.49
2026-08-21-3.16
2026-08-20-2.93
2026-08-19-3.36
2026-08-18-4.77
2026-08-17-1.97
2026-08-16-3.71
2026-08-15-4.60
2026-08-14-4.09
2026-08-13-5.06
2026-08-12-5.58
2026-08-11-3.97
2026-08-10-6.44
2026-08-09-3.19
2026-08-08-1.76
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-3.77

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 0-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -4 °F: 8 days-4 to -2 °F: 10 days-2 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.87 · P90 |e| 6.18 °F-200+20 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.002
-6.00-4.008
-4.00-2.0010
-2.00+0.003
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08244.30 -4.30

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 24 +0.30 [-0.42, 1.01] no
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -1.79 [-2.93, -0.66] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -0.93 [-1.89, -0.24] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +1.17 [0.57, 1.77] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 +1.88 [1.24, 2.67] yes
NCEP GFS 24 -0.68 [-1.16, -0.20] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -0.33 [-1.60, 0.94] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -0.50 [-1.11, 0.66] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +0.50 [-1.45, 2.46] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +1.46 [0.09, 2.18] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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