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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 0

KMSY · aifs_single · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC4.01 [3.80, 4.24]0.95-3.84 [-4.20, -3.43]4.13 [3.95, 4.33]0% [0%, 0%]7%13%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC4.01 [3.77, 4.28]0.95-3.84 [-4.25, -3.24]4.13 [3.94, 4.34]0% [0%, 0%]7%13%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC4.01 [3.75, 4.29]0.95-3.84 [-4.29, -3.24]4.13 [3.91, 4.36]0% [0%, 0%]7%13%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall30 1 QC4.01 [3.77, 4.32]0.95-3.84 [-4.29, -3.21]4.13 [3.92, 4.39]0% [0%, 0%]7%13%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d30 1 QC4.01 [3.80, 4.24]0.95-3.84 [-4.20, -3.43]4.14 [3.95, 4.33]0% [0%, 0%]7%13%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d30 1 QC4.01 [3.77, 4.28]0.95-3.84 [-4.25, -3.23]4.14 [3.94, 4.34]0% [0%, 0%]7%13%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d30 1 QC4.01 [3.75, 4.30]0.95-3.84 [-4.29, -3.23]4.14 [3.91, 4.36]0% [0%, 0%]7%13%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall30 1 QC4.01 [3.76, 4.33]0.95-3.84 [-4.30, -3.21]4.14 [3.92, 4.40]0% [0%, 0%]7%13%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC2.77 [2.57, 3.03]0.90+2.61 [2.16, 2.98]2.93 [2.70, 3.24]3% [0%, 10%]23%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC2.77 [2.48, 3.04]0.90+2.61 [1.92, 3.02]2.93 [2.61, 3.23]3% [0%, 10%]23%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC2.77 [2.46, 3.04]0.90+2.61 [1.78, 3.04]2.93 [2.58, 3.23]3% [0%, 10%]23%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall30 1 QC2.77 [2.48, 3.10]0.90+2.61 [1.84, 3.09]2.93 [2.60, 3.28]3% [0%, 11%]23%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d30 1 QC2.78 [2.58, 3.04]0.90+2.62 [2.17, 2.99]2.94 [2.71, 3.25]3% [0%, 10%]23%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d30 1 QC2.78 [2.48, 3.05]0.90+2.62 [1.93, 3.03]2.94 [2.62, 3.24]3% [0%, 10%]23%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d30 1 QC2.78 [2.46, 3.05]0.90+2.62 [1.79, 3.04]2.94 [2.58, 3.24]3% [0%, 10%]23%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall30 1 QC2.78 [2.49, 3.11]0.90+2.62 [1.85, 3.10]2.94 [2.61, 3.29]3% [0%, 11%]23%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -3.57 °F2026-08-02: +2.61 °F2026-08-03: -4.96 °F2026-08-04: -3.79 °F2026-08-05: -5.35 °F2026-08-06: -3.84 °F2026-08-07: -3.77 °F2026-08-08: -2.05 °F2026-08-09: -1.64 °F2026-08-10: -5.49 °F2026-08-11: -4.23 °F2026-08-12: -4.13 °F2026-08-13: -4.96 °F2026-08-14: -3.74 °F2026-08-15: -3.71 °F2026-08-16: -4.26 °F2026-08-17: -1.93 °F2026-08-18: -4.13 °F2026-08-19: -4.58 °F2026-08-20: -4.9 °F2026-08-21: -4.8 °F2026-08-22: -4.16 °F2026-08-23: -3.04 °F2026-08-24: -3.33 °F2026-08-25: -5.93 °F2026-08-26: -4.31 °F2026-08-27: -4.04 °F2026-08-28: -4.52 °F2026-08-29: -4.23 °F2026-08-30: -4.35 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.35
2026-08-29-4.23
2026-08-28-4.52
2026-08-27-4.04
2026-08-26-4.31
2026-08-25-5.93
2026-08-24-3.33
2026-08-23-3.04
2026-08-22-4.16
2026-08-21-4.80
2026-08-20-4.90
2026-08-19-4.58
2026-08-18-4.13
2026-08-17-1.93
2026-08-16-4.26
2026-08-15-3.71
2026-08-14-3.74
2026-08-13-4.96
2026-08-12-4.13
2026-08-11-4.23
2026-08-10-5.49
2026-08-09-1.64
2026-08-08-2.05
2026-08-07-3.77
2026-08-06-3.84
2026-08-05-5.35
2026-08-04-3.79
2026-08-03-4.96
2026-08-02+2.61
2026-08-01-3.57

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 15 days-4 to -3 °F: 8 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.15 · P90 |e| 5 °F-100+10 °Fn = 30 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.0015
-4.00-3.008
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08304.01 -3.84

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -2.74 [-3.56, -1.93] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -2.29 [-2.52, -2.18] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +0.22 [-0.06, 0.50] no
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 +0.51 [-0.95, 2.04] no
NCEP GFS 30 -1.05 [-1.70, -0.46] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -1.28 [-2.23, -0.33] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 28 -0.83 [-1.18, -0.43] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 24 -0.30 [-1.01, 0.42] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -0.44 [-2.08, 1.19] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +0.10 [-0.54, 0.42] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY aifs_single lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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