Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

NCEP GFS (gfs)

source gfs · product pgrb2.0p25 · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC · native extreme fields TMAX, TMIN (diagnostic only, never in the headline ranking).

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —2.19+0.27 · n=29 3.16-0.92 · n=28 2.94-0.45 · n=27 3.03+0.11 · n=26 3.11-0.29 · n=25 4.97-2.20 · n=24 2.74-0.66 · n=23 4.43-2.04 · n=22 5.27-1.46 · n=21 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS —1.58-1.11 · n=29 1.55-1.29 · n=28 1.43-0.91 · n=27 1.51-0.91 · n=26 1.67-1.20 · n=25 1.83-1.03 · n=24 2.32-1.15 · n=23 1.87-0.54 · n=22 2.53-0.45 · n=21 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS —2.22-0.29 · n=28 2.90-0.81 · n=27 4.14-2.27 · n=26 3.99-0.94 · n=25 3.59-0.76 · n=24 3.94-1.20 · n=23 4.40-0.26 · n=22 6.86-0.99 · n=21 8.21+0.68 · n=20 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA —2.62-1.00 · n=29 3.21-1.26 · n=28 2.87-0.29 · n=27 3.03-1.23 · n=26 3.98-2.04 · n=25 4.33-1.98 · n=24 4.97-0.72 · n=23 4.85-2.19 · n=22 7.45-2.10 · n=21 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN —3.91-2.87 · n=29 3.83-2.42 · n=28 3.84-2.13 · n=27 3.55-2.72 · n=26 3.94-3.47 · n=25 5.11-3.52 · n=24 3.31-1.87 · n=23 5.38-3.35 · n=22 7.11-4.79 · n=21 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW —1.83+0.88 · n=29 1.99+1.40 · n=28 1.83+1.40 · n=27 2.12+1.17 · n=26 1.42+0.87 · n=25 2.23+1.52 · n=24 3.17+0.44 · n=23 3.24+0.34 · n=22 3.13+0.58 · n=21 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR —1.99-1.02 · n=29 2.37-1.40 · n=28 2.87-1.67 · n=27 3.52-2.11 · n=26 2.88-1.20 · n=25 3.43-1.33 · n=24 3.64-0.36 · n=23 3.31-0.55 · n=22 4.97-0.46 · n=21 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH —1.28-0.20 · n=29 1.53-0.34 · n=28 1.97-0.47 · n=27 1.74-0.20 · n=26 2.23-0.77 · n=25 1.92-1.21 · n=24 2.40-0.61 · n=23 2.40-0.69 · n=22 2.50-0.73 · n=21 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS —5.22-4.64 · n=29 4.29-3.47 · n=28 4.38-3.43 · n=27 4.28-2.88 · n=26 4.51-2.53 · n=25 5.61-4.17 · n=24 6.80-4.09 · n=23 7.05-3.89 · n=22 6.55-3.78 · n=21 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX —1.90-0.88 · n=29 2.15-0.63 · n=28 2.02-0.59 · n=27 2.13-0.68 · n=26 1.80-0.65 · n=25 1.80-0.87 · n=24 2.18-0.69 · n=23 2.82-1.42 · n=22 2.80-1.88 · n=21 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA —1.90-1.63 · n=29 1.74-1.41 · n=28 2.09-1.88 · n=27 2.08-1.76 · n=26 2.38-2.08 · n=25 2.58-2.51 · n=24 2.79-2.73 · n=23 2.82-2.73 · n=22 3.40-3.40 · n=21 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP —2.53+2.21 · n=29 3.64+1.61 · n=28 3.78+2.37 · n=27 4.56+1.94 · n=26 5.64-0.06 · n=25 4.60+0.09 · n=24 3.82-1.27 · n=23 6.22-2.55 · n=22 4.70-1.70 · n=21 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY —4.84-4.57 · n=29 4.48-4.48 · n=28 4.10-4.10 · n=27 4.47-4.16 · n=26 4.31-3.97 · n=25 4.90-4.65 · n=24 3.97-3.51 · n=23 4.48-4.36 · n=22 4.52-4.26 · n=21 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC —3.77+2.99 · n=29 3.77+2.79 · n=28 4.13+2.01 · n=27 3.43+1.96 · n=26 4.55+3.03 · n=25 4.13+2.35 · n=24 5.29+3.61 · n=23 4.30+3.05 · n=22 5.07+2.67 · n=21 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC —2.61+1.78 · n=29 3.38+2.18 · n=28 3.22+2.69 · n=27 3.17+2.18 · n=26 2.84+1.51 · n=25 4.51+0.91 · n=24 3.63+1.66 · n=23 3.09+2.19 · n=22 4.64-0.10 · n=21 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD —2.12-1.73 · n=29 2.22-0.27 · n=28 2.52+0.24 · n=27 3.04-1.16 · n=26 2.83-1.37 · n=25 3.20-1.17 · n=24 4.18-2.97 · n=23 4.45-1.22 · n=22 4.86-2.60 · n=21 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL —2.60-1.73 · n=29 2.85-2.58 · n=28 3.02-1.69 · n=27 3.53-2.68 · n=26 3.16-1.49 · n=25 4.47-2.51 · n=24 4.69-1.56 · n=23 4.64-1.07 · n=22 5.98-1.50 · n=21 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX —2.76-2.58 · n=29 2.96-2.52 · n=28 3.24-2.61 · n=27 4.16-3.87 · n=26 4.79-4.40 · n=25 4.87-4.58 · n=24 4.99-4.73 · n=23 5.02-4.37 · n=22 5.36-4.67 · n=21 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN —2.91-2.91 · n=29 2.98-2.91 · n=28 2.98-2.98 · n=27 3.25-3.24 · n=26 3.35-3.35 · n=25 3.50-3.50 · n=24 3.52-3.44 · n=23 3.82-3.55 · n=22 3.83-3.71 · n=21 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT —1.65-1.31 · n=29 1.65-1.31 · n=28 1.66-1.30 · n=27 1.31-0.58 · n=26 1.14-0.87 · n=25 1.26-0.42 · n=24 1.98-0.76 · n=23 1.76-0.23 · n=22 2.07-0.16 · n=21 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA —3.87+2.94 · n=29 4.48+2.40 · n=28 4.71+3.51 · n=27 4.65+2.43 · n=26 4.97+2.14 · n=25 4.54+2.53 · n=24 3.49+1.77 · n=23 5.09+1.68 · n=22 6.50+2.82 · n=21 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO —4.80-4.57 · n=29 4.54-4.14 · n=28 4.69-4.22 · n=27 4.45-4.20 · n=26 4.49-4.18 · n=25 5.00-4.60 · n=24 4.94-4.81 · n=23 5.19-5.19 · n=22 5.44-5.44 · n=21 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN —2.73+0.71 · n=29 2.90-0.14 · n=28 2.85+0.40 · n=27 3.79-0.34 · n=26 3.52+1.20 · n=25 4.09+0.32 · n=24 5.12+1.43 · n=23 4.44+1.89 · n=22 5.83+1.68 · n=21 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —2.17+1.58 · n=29 1.91+0.92 · n=28 2.22+1.39 · n=27 2.66+1.92 · n=26 2.92+1.85 · n=25 2.91+1.63 · n=24 2.33+0.92 · n=23 2.46+1.16 · n=22 2.96+1.60 · n=21 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS —3.83+3.33 · n=29 3.79+3.14 · n=28 3.24+2.79 · n=27 3.30+2.75 · n=26 3.23+2.80 · n=25 3.25+2.82 · n=24 3.61+2.97 · n=23 3.51+2.83 · n=22 2.97+2.50 · n=21 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS —1.56-0.64 · n=28 1.66-0.76 · n=27 2.08-1.39 · n=26 2.62-1.85 · n=25 2.49-1.76 · n=24 2.82-1.48 · n=23 2.48-0.38 · n=22 2.66-0.21 · n=21 3.75-1.17 · n=20 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA —2.42-0.47 · n=29 2.50-0.59 · n=28 2.25-0.66 · n=27 2.87-0.61 · n=26 3.02-1.12 · n=25 3.96-1.18 · n=24 4.01-1.24 · n=23 4.01-0.77 · n=22 4.71-0.76 · n=21 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN —4.11+3.47 · n=29 4.22+4.18 · n=28 4.88+4.74 · n=27 4.88+4.72 · n=26 4.55+4.03 · n=25 4.73+4.11 · n=24 4.89+3.91 · n=23 5.62+3.27 · n=22 5.12+3.80 · n=21 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW —3.40+3.40 · n=29 3.79+3.71 · n=28 3.28+3.28 · n=27 3.21+3.20 · n=26 3.01+3.01 · n=25 3.28+2.91 · n=24 4.06+3.31 · n=23 3.72+3.16 · n=22 3.87+2.67 · n=21 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR —3.35+2.97 · n=29 3.47+3.05 · n=28 4.01+3.62 · n=27 3.56+3.00 · n=26 3.89+2.90 · n=25 4.23+3.63 · n=24 4.57+3.46 · n=23 4.64+3.53 · n=22 4.38+3.02 · n=21 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH —3.49+3.49 · n=29 3.60+3.58 · n=28 3.63+3.56 · n=27 3.42+3.27 · n=26 3.66+3.47 · n=25 3.64+3.20 · n=24 3.55+3.22 · n=23 3.65+3.03 · n=22 3.70+2.87 · n=21 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS —3.32-1.52 · n=29 3.26-0.71 · n=28 3.60-0.12 · n=27 3.87-0.34 · n=26 3.61+0.25 · n=25 4.06-0.05 · n=24 4.71-1.37 · n=23 5.18-0.77 · n=22 5.08-0.22 · n=21 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX —2.98+2.86 · n=29 3.47+3.30 · n=28 3.58+3.44 · n=27 3.49+3.38 · n=26 3.53+3.42 · n=25 3.38+3.34 · n=24 3.30+3.30 · n=23 3.33+3.03 · n=22 2.98+2.24 · n=21 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA —4.63+4.63 · n=29 4.72+4.72 · n=28 4.49+4.49 · n=27 4.45+4.44 · n=26 4.45+4.45 · n=25 4.30+4.30 · n=24 4.31+4.31 · n=23 4.60+3.97 · n=22 4.40+4.40 · n=21 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP —1.84-0.08 · n=29 2.32-0.12 · n=28 3.35+0.44 · n=27 2.48+0.10 · n=26 4.24+0.04 · n=25 4.74-1.27 · n=24 5.25-0.75 · n=23 5.24-2.09 · n=22 6.11-1.97 · n=21 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY —1.47+1.01 · n=29 1.73+1.25 · n=28 1.67+1.15 · n=27 1.91+1.25 · n=26 2.10+1.15 · n=25 2.19+1.18 · n=24 2.21+1.09 · n=23 1.94+1.01 · n=22 1.70+0.32 · n=21 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC —4.37+4.37 · n=29 4.52+4.52 · n=28 5.06+5.04 · n=27 4.42+4.36 · n=26 4.81+4.44 · n=25 5.61+5.12 · n=24 5.55+4.93 · n=23 5.58+5.01 · n=22 4.52+4.41 · n=21 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC —3.10+2.37 · n=29 3.49+3.34 · n=28 4.01+3.45 · n=27 4.31+4.26 · n=26 4.56+3.79 · n=25 4.62+2.65 · n=24 5.04+3.20 · n=23 5.09+4.19 · n=22 5.49+2.07 · n=21 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD —1.75+0.44 · n=29 2.20+0.42 · n=28 2.51+1.02 · n=27 2.55+0.98 · n=26 2.45+0.86 · n=25 2.99+1.21 · n=24 3.27+0.38 · n=23 4.58+0.62 · n=22 4.06+0.12 · n=21 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL —1.82+0.03 · n=29 2.05+0.35 · n=28 1.75+0.51 · n=27 2.48+0.20 · n=26 2.65-0.16 · n=25 3.06+0.14 · n=24 3.53+0.36 · n=23 3.93+0.16 · n=22 4.27+0.06 · n=21 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX —4.25+2.64 · n=29 4.10+2.87 · n=28 4.30+3.24 · n=27 3.93+3.54 · n=26 3.85+2.69 · n=25 4.19+2.94 · n=24 4.88+3.42 · n=23 5.12+3.52 · n=22 4.31+3.47 · n=21 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN —2.12+2.00 · n=29 2.39+2.23 · n=28 2.47+2.28 · n=27 2.48+2.30 · n=26 2.43+2.21 · n=25 2.38+2.19 · n=24 2.23+2.18 · n=23 2.09+1.91 · n=22 2.02+1.47 · n=21 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT —1.88-0.42 · n=29 2.10-0.51 · n=28 2.15-0.76 · n=27 2.18-0.72 · n=26 2.06-0.69 · n=25 2.37-0.85 · n=24 2.13-0.67 · n=23 2.13-0.87 · n=22 2.46-0.73 · n=21 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA —1.22-0.69 · n=29 1.49-1.04 · n=28 1.54-0.88 · n=27 1.45-0.45 · n=26 1.83-0.74 · n=25 1.94-0.92 · n=24 2.46-1.22 · n=23 2.40-1.50 · n=22 3.11-0.76 · n=21 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO —1.01-0.31 · n=29 0.88-0.16 · n=28 0.98-0.27 · n=27 1.00-0.45 · n=26 0.97-0.47 · n=25 0.82-0.48 · n=24 0.98-0.63 · n=23 1.11-0.71 · n=22 1.18-0.69 · n=21 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN —3.13+3.12 · n=29 3.27+3.00 · n=28 3.86+3.65 · n=27 3.64+3.19 · n=26 4.24+2.81 · n=25 4.74+3.24 · n=24 5.25+3.85 · n=23 5.35+3.52 · n=22 5.31+3.05 · n=21 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where it comes from

gfs · pgrb2.0p25

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/NCEP, U.S. Government work, public domain.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences