Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · NCEP GFS · lead day 2

KOKC · gfs · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d28 2 QC3.13 [1.84, 4.59]2.64+2.21 [0.94, 3.55]4.02 [2.37, 5.40]21% [7%, 36%]43%61%+0.34+0.442026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d28 2 QC3.13 [1.75, 4.80]2.64+2.21 [1.00, 3.71]4.02 [2.14, 5.50]21% [6%, 36%]43%61%+0.34+0.442026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d28 2 QC3.13 [1.57, 4.91]2.64+2.21 [0.81, 3.77]4.02 [1.91, 5.63]21% [0%, 36%]43%61%+0.34+0.442026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall28 2 QC3.13 [1.56, 4.90]2.64+2.21 [0.85, 4.02]4.02 [1.90, 5.66]21% [0%, 36%]43%61%+0.34+0.442026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d28 2 QC3.33 [2.05, 4.74]2.75+2.31 [1.00, 3.65]4.15 [2.70, 5.43]21% [4%, 40%]43%50%+0.30+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d28 2 QC3.33 [1.97, 4.94]2.75+2.31 [1.01, 3.85]4.15 [2.49, 5.54]21% [0%, 40%]43%50%+0.30+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d28 2 QC3.33 [1.78, 5.15]2.75+2.31 [0.89, 3.88]4.15 [2.19, 5.68]21% [0%, 43%]43%50%+0.30+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall28 2 QC3.33 [1.83, 5.15]2.75+2.31 [0.95, 4.16]4.15 [2.20, 5.62]21% [0%, 42%]43%50%+0.30+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d28 2 QC3.38 [2.33, 4.62]2.72+2.18 [1.24, 3.24]4.13 [2.99, 5.16]21% [7%, 34%]36%43%+0.29+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d28 2 QC3.38 [2.05, 4.73]2.72+2.18 [1.22, 3.48]4.13 [2.69, 5.26]21% [4%, 34%]36%43%+0.29+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d28 2 QC3.38 [2.00, 4.96]2.72+2.18 [1.19, 3.45]4.13 [2.57, 5.39]21% [0%, 36%]36%43%+0.29+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall28 2 QC3.38 [2.06, 4.87]2.72+2.18 [1.12, 3.80]4.13 [2.70, 5.37]21% [0%, 36%]36%43%+0.29+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d28 2 QC3.75 [2.59, 5.14]2.92+2.58 [1.62, 3.64]4.54 [3.27, 5.78]21% [7%, 34%]25%43%+0.21+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d28 2 QC3.75 [2.31, 5.29]2.92+2.58 [1.61, 3.76]4.54 [2.85, 5.86]21% [4%, 34%]25%43%+0.21+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d28 2 QC3.75 [2.24, 5.47]2.92+2.58 [1.59, 3.85]4.54 [2.81, 6.04]21% [0%, 36%]25%43%+0.21+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall28 2 QC3.75 [2.33, 5.26]2.92+2.58 [1.47, 4.09]4.54 [2.94, 5.96]21% [0%, 36%]25%43%+0.21+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d28 2 QC3.37 [2.67, 4.08]2.22+2.86 [1.55, 3.97]3.92 [3.29, 4.44]14% [3%, 29%]36%46%+0.13+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d28 2 QC3.37 [2.62, 4.23]2.22+2.86 [1.50, 4.22]3.92 [3.32, 4.49]14% [0%, 29%]36%46%+0.13+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d28 2 QC3.37 [2.52, 4.13]2.22+2.86 [1.30, 4.13]3.92 [3.17, 4.44]14% [0%, 30%]36%46%+0.13+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall28 2 QC3.37 [2.58, 4.20]2.22+2.86 [1.36, 4.20]3.92 [3.23, 4.48]14% [0%, 30%]36%46%+0.13+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d28 2 QC3.63 [2.85, 4.41]2.33+3.00 [1.53, 4.28]4.16 [3.51, 4.76]11% [0%, 25%]25%46%+0.07+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d28 2 QC3.63 [2.77, 4.59]2.33+3.00 [1.41, 4.58]4.16 [3.46, 4.87]11% [0%, 26%]25%46%+0.07+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d28 2 QC3.63 [2.67, 4.48]2.33+3.00 [1.26, 4.48]4.16 [3.34, 4.80]11% [0%, 29%]25%46%+0.07+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall28 2 QC3.63 [2.77, 4.53]2.33+3.00 [1.30, 4.53]4.16 [3.41, 4.84]11% [0%, 28%]25%46%+0.07+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d28 2 QC3.49 [2.54, 4.44]1.99+3.34 [2.22, 4.41]4.17 [3.13, 5.00]7% [0%, 17%]32%50%+0.10+0.492026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d28 2 QC3.49 [2.48, 4.59]1.99+3.34 [2.23, 4.58]4.17 [3.13, 5.09]7% [0%, 17%]32%50%+0.10+0.492026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d28 2 QC3.49 [2.37, 4.58]1.99+3.34 [2.11, 4.56]4.17 [3.05, 5.10]7% [0%, 17%]32%50%+0.10+0.492026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall28 2 QC3.49 [2.34, 4.62]1.99+3.34 [2.02, 4.62]4.17 [2.91, 5.12]7% [0%, 19%]32%50%+0.10+0.492026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d28 2 QC3.80 [2.89, 4.68]2.28+3.40 [2.00, 4.65]4.45 [3.42, 5.27]4% [0%, 11%]29%46%+0.02+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d28 2 QC3.80 [2.85, 4.78]2.28+3.40 [1.96, 4.78]4.45 [3.39, 5.33]4% [0%, 10%]29%46%+0.02+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d28 2 QC3.80 [2.76, 4.80]2.28+3.40 [1.82, 4.78]4.45 [3.31, 5.37]4% [0%, 11%]29%46%+0.02+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall28 2 QC3.80 [2.75, 4.82]2.28+3.40 [1.69, 4.82]4.45 [3.25, 5.43]4% [0%, 11%]29%46%+0.02+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KOKC, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: +5.77 °F2026-08-04: +4.85 °F2026-08-05: +3.92 °F2026-08-06: +4.76 °F2026-08-07: +5.2 °F2026-08-08: -2.54 °F2026-08-09: -0.46 °F2026-08-10: +3.07 °F2026-08-11: +2.23 °F2026-08-12: +1.29 °F2026-08-13: -0.7 °F2026-08-14: -0.09 °F2026-08-15: +1.09 °F2026-08-16: -0.23 °F2026-08-17: +1.57 °F2026-08-18: -2.18 °F2026-08-19: +6.59 °F2026-08-20: -6.1 °F2026-08-21: +6.44 °F2026-08-22: +9.51 °F2026-08-23: +7.97 °F2026-08-24: +0.68 °F2026-08-25: +1.17 °F2026-08-26: +2.45 °F2026-08-27: -0.55 °F2026-08-28: +1.56 °F2026-08-29: +1.74 °F2026-08-30: +2.87 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.87
2026-08-29+1.74
2026-08-28+1.56
2026-08-27-0.55
2026-08-26+2.45
2026-08-25+1.17
2026-08-24+0.68
2026-08-23+7.97
2026-08-22+9.51
2026-08-21+6.44
2026-08-20-6.10
2026-08-19+6.59
2026-08-18-2.18
2026-08-17+1.57
2026-08-16-0.23
2026-08-15+1.09
2026-08-14-0.09
2026-08-13-0.70
2026-08-12+1.29
2026-08-11+2.23
2026-08-10+3.07
2026-08-09-0.46
2026-08-08-2.54
2026-08-07+5.20
2026-08-06+4.76
2026-08-05+3.92
2026-08-04+4.85
2026-08-03+5.77

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KOKC, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 6 days2 to 3 °F: 3 days3 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 5 °F: 2 days5 to 6 °F: 2 days6 to 7 °F: 2 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 1 daydashed: P50 |e| 2.34 · P90 |e| 6.49 °F-100+10 °Fn = 28 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.005
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.006
+2.00+3.003
+3.00+4.002
+4.00+5.002
+5.00+6.002
+6.00+7.002
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.001

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08283.13 +2.21

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 28 -0.55 [-1.99, 1.07] no
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -4.39 [-4.39, -4.39] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -4.15 [-4.15, -4.15] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 26 -4.43 [-6.68, -1.84] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 -0.10 [-2.14, 2.15] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -2.09 [-2.09, -2.09] yes
Persistence (baseline) 28 -1.62 [-3.76, 0.07] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC gfs lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/gfs/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model gfs, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/gfs/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence