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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KOKC · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.03 [2.57, 3.53]2.28-2.28 [-3.48, -1.06]3.57 [3.17, 3.87]27% [9%, 42%]32%45%+0.38+0.532026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.03 [2.41, 3.70]2.28-2.28 [-3.69, -0.83]3.57 [3.00, 4.00]27% [6%, 47%]32%45%+0.38+0.532026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.03 [2.41, 3.79]2.28-2.28 [-3.79, -0.54]3.57 [3.04, 4.03]27% [0%, 50%]32%45%+0.38+0.532026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.03 [2.30, 3.71]2.28-2.28 [-3.71, -0.51]3.57 [2.96, 3.99]27% [0%, 50%]32%45%+0.38+0.532026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 2 QC2.82 [2.37, 3.18]2.09-1.94 [-3.08, -0.77]3.26 [2.78, 3.53]18% [6%, 33%]32%50%+0.43+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 2 QC2.82 [2.19, 3.34]2.09-1.94 [-3.28, -0.59]3.26 [2.64, 3.64]18% [4%, 38%]32%50%+0.43+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 2 QC2.82 [2.22, 3.34]2.09-1.94 [-3.34, -0.41]3.26 [2.69, 3.68]18% [0%, 38%]32%50%+0.43+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 2 QC2.82 [2.14, 3.33]2.09-1.94 [-3.31, -0.45]3.26 [2.56, 3.64]18% [0%, 40%]32%50%+0.43+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.98 [3.29, 4.37]2.86-2.89 [-4.14, -1.55]4.56 [3.81, 4.96]5% [0%, 21%]23%36%+0.17+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.98 [3.00, 4.55]2.86-2.89 [-4.34, -1.30]4.56 [3.53, 5.04]5% [0%, 33%]23%36%+0.17+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.98 [3.13, 4.51]2.86-2.89 [-4.36, -1.02]4.56 [3.68, 5.08]5% [0%, 25%]23%36%+0.17+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.98 [2.89, 4.47]2.86-2.89 [-4.30, -1.03]4.56 [3.43, 5.04]5% [0%, 33%]23%36%+0.17+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 2 QC3.86 [2.80, 4.51]2.88-2.55 [-3.68, -1.31]4.44 [3.31, 5.10]9% [0%, 27%]18%32%+0.20+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 2 QC3.86 [2.47, 4.61]2.88-2.55 [-3.92, -1.08]4.44 [2.95, 5.14]9% [0%, 33%]18%32%+0.20+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 2 QC3.86 [2.64, 4.63]2.88-2.55 [-3.93, -0.84]4.44 [3.09, 5.16]9% [0%, 31%]18%32%+0.20+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 2 QC3.86 [2.44, 4.68]2.88-2.55 [-3.88, -0.83]4.44 [2.91, 5.23]9% [0%, 36%]18%32%+0.20+0.402026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC6.08 [5.37, 7.45]2.23+5.87 [4.99, 7.37]6.54 [5.70, 7.88]0% [0%, 0%]0%14%-0.69+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC6.08 [5.39, 8.23]2.23+5.87 [5.06, 8.23]6.54 [5.73, 8.37]0% [0%, 0%]0%14%-0.69+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC6.08 [5.31, 8.23]2.23+5.87 [4.95, 8.23]6.54 [5.66, 8.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%14%-0.69+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 2 QC6.08 [5.35, 8.23]2.23+5.87 [4.96, 8.23]6.54 [5.69, 8.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%14%-0.69+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 2 QC6.96 [6.17, 8.45]2.36+6.74 [5.83, 8.32]7.44 [6.56, 8.81]0% [0%, 0%]0%9%-0.94+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 2 QC6.96 [6.20, 9.35]2.36+6.74 [5.88, 9.35]7.44 [6.58, 9.60]0% [0%, 0%]0%9%-0.94+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 2 QC6.96 [6.09, 9.25]2.36+6.74 [5.76, 9.25]7.44 [6.48, 9.58]0% [0%, 0%]0%9%-0.94+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 2 QC6.96 [6.17, 9.50]2.36+6.74 [5.74, 9.50]7.44 [6.55, 9.71]0% [0%, 0%]0%9%-0.94+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC4.69 [3.95, 6.09]1.97+4.41 [3.40, 6.05]5.14 [4.36, 6.45]5% [0%, 12%]9%23%-0.27+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC4.69 [3.93, 6.77]1.97+4.41 [3.45, 6.77]5.14 [4.35, 6.96]5% [0%, 12%]9%23%-0.27+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC4.69 [3.87, 6.79]1.97+4.41 [3.33, 6.79]5.14 [4.25, 6.98]5% [0%, 12%]9%23%-0.27+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 2 QC4.69 [3.80, 6.87]1.97+4.41 [3.30, 6.87]5.14 [4.21, 6.97]5% [0%, 12%]9%23%-0.27+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 2 QC5.50 [4.42, 7.35]2.44+5.23 [3.90, 7.21]6.11 [5.09, 7.76]9% [0%, 20%]9%18%-0.49+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 2 QC5.50 [4.40, 8.15]2.44+5.23 [3.99, 8.15]6.11 [5.12, 8.38]9% [0%, 20%]9%18%-0.49+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 2 QC5.50 [4.32, 8.21]2.44+5.23 [3.75, 8.21]6.11 [5.02, 8.37]9% [0%, 21%]9%18%-0.49+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 2 QC5.50 [4.27, 8.37]2.44+5.23 [3.76, 8.37]6.11 [4.94, 8.60]9% [0%, 21%]9%18%-0.49+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -0.49 °F2026-08-08: -3.84 °F2026-08-09: -3.41 °F2026-08-11: -3.62 °F2026-08-13: -4.24 °F2026-08-14: -3.96 °F2026-08-15: -2.85 °F2026-08-16: -0.59 °F2026-08-17: -0.44 °F2026-08-18: -5.99 °F2026-08-19: +0.49 °F2026-08-20: -5.04 °F2026-08-21: +2.38 °F2026-08-22: +5.4 °F2026-08-23: -0.26 °F2026-08-24: -0.78 °F2026-08-25: -4.68 °F2026-08-26: -1.16 °F2026-08-27: -2.83 °F2026-08-28: -5.3 °F2026-08-29: -5.36 °F2026-08-30: -3.64 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.64
2026-08-29-5.36
2026-08-28-5.30
2026-08-27-2.83
2026-08-26-1.16
2026-08-25-4.68
2026-08-24-0.78
2026-08-23-0.26
2026-08-22+5.40
2026-08-21+2.38
2026-08-20-5.04
2026-08-19+0.49
2026-08-18-5.99
2026-08-17-0.44
2026-08-16-0.59
2026-08-15-2.85
2026-08-14-3.96
2026-08-13-4.24
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11-3.62
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-3.41
2026-08-08-3.84
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03-0.49

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.51 · P90 |e| 5.35 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.005
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.03 -2.28

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.73 [-1.23, 0.15] no
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -3.61 [-3.61, -3.61] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -3.38 [-3.38, -3.38] yes
NCEP GFS 22 +0.10 [-2.15, 2.14] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -5.35 [-5.99, -4.02] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -1.32 [-1.32, -1.32] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 -1.88 [-3.91, -0.03] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence