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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 2

KOKC · aifs_single · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d28 2 QC3.68 [3.25, 4.07]1.64-3.57 [-3.97, -3.18]4.10 [3.58, 4.54]7% [0%, 14%]21%36%+0.23+0.652026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d28 2 QC3.68 [3.17, 4.14]1.64-3.57 [-4.05, -3.11]4.10 [3.46, 4.57]7% [0%, 14%]21%36%+0.23+0.652026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d28 2 QC3.68 [3.21, 4.18]1.64-3.57 [-4.12, -3.16]4.10 [3.50, 4.60]7% [0%, 14%]21%36%+0.23+0.652026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall28 2 QC3.68 [3.16, 4.12]1.64-3.57 [-4.06, -3.14]4.10 [3.47, 4.63]7% [0%, 14%]21%36%+0.23+0.652026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d28 2 QC3.74 [3.20, 4.25]1.77-3.61 [-4.09, -3.12]4.21 [3.55, 4.78]7% [0%, 13%]25%36%+0.21+0.622026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d28 2 QC3.74 [3.08, 4.29]1.77-3.61 [-4.16, -3.06]4.21 [3.41, 4.81]7% [0%, 14%]25%36%+0.21+0.622026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d28 2 QC3.74 [3.10, 4.32]1.77-3.61 [-4.25, -3.06]4.21 [3.40, 4.88]7% [0%, 14%]25%36%+0.21+0.622026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall28 2 QC3.74 [3.10, 4.34]1.77-3.61 [-4.17, -3.07]4.21 [3.42, 4.89]7% [0%, 14%]25%36%+0.21+0.622026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d28 2 QC3.78 [3.30, 4.29]1.71-3.71 [-4.24, -3.21]4.27 [3.72, 4.75]11% [0%, 29%]29%32%+0.21+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d28 2 QC3.78 [3.27, 4.37]1.71-3.71 [-4.35, -3.18]4.27 [3.67, 4.76]11% [0%, 29%]29%32%+0.21+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d28 2 QC3.78 [3.28, 4.39]1.71-3.71 [-4.37, -3.19]4.27 [3.66, 4.79]11% [0%, 30%]29%32%+0.21+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall28 2 QC3.78 [3.28, 4.33]1.71-3.71 [-4.32, -3.16]4.27 [3.65, 4.83]11% [0%, 31%]29%32%+0.21+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d28 2 QC3.82 [3.23, 4.42]1.81-3.78 [-4.39, -3.17]4.40 [3.70, 5.05]11% [0%, 29%]29%32%+0.20+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d28 2 QC3.82 [3.20, 4.45]1.81-3.78 [-4.43, -3.17]4.40 [3.62, 5.07]11% [0%, 29%]29%32%+0.20+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d28 2 QC3.82 [3.17, 4.51]1.81-3.78 [-4.47, -3.16]4.40 [3.58, 5.08]11% [0%, 30%]29%32%+0.20+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall28 2 QC3.82 [3.19, 4.45]1.81-3.78 [-4.42, -3.16]4.40 [3.61, 5.17]11% [0%, 31%]29%32%+0.20+0.612026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d28 2 QC3.40 [2.35, 4.61]2.27+2.98 [1.79, 4.42]4.09 [2.85, 5.18]25% [11%, 37%]32%46%+0.13+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d28 2 QC3.40 [2.28, 4.90]2.27+2.98 [1.67, 4.84]4.09 [2.79, 5.39]25% [9%, 40%]32%46%+0.13+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d28 2 QC3.40 [2.29, 4.82]2.27+2.98 [1.65, 4.69]4.09 [2.81, 5.32]25% [9%, 40%]32%46%+0.13+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall28 2 QC3.40 [2.26, 4.85]2.27+2.98 [1.72, 4.83]4.09 [2.75, 5.36]25% [8%, 39%]32%46%+0.13+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d28 2 QC3.49 [2.47, 4.69]2.29+3.00 [1.70, 4.53]4.11 [2.93, 5.20]18% [4%, 33%]29%43%+0.10+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d28 2 QC3.49 [2.39, 5.00]2.29+3.00 [1.62, 4.90]4.11 [2.85, 5.45]18% [0%, 34%]29%43%+0.10+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d28 2 QC3.49 [2.39, 4.88]2.29+3.00 [1.53, 4.80]4.11 [2.87, 5.34]18% [0%, 36%]29%43%+0.10+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall28 2 QC3.49 [2.36, 4.95]2.29+3.00 [1.61, 4.91]4.11 [2.80, 5.39]18% [0%, 36%]29%43%+0.10+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d28 2 QC2.95 [1.89, 4.31]2.04+2.65 [1.41, 4.19]3.67 [2.36, 4.97]25% [11%, 37%]39%54%+0.24+0.482026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d28 2 QC2.95 [1.82, 4.74]2.04+2.65 [1.30, 4.66]3.67 [2.27, 5.26]25% [9%, 40%]39%54%+0.24+0.482026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d28 2 QC2.95 [1.77, 4.52]2.04+2.65 [1.27, 4.48]3.67 [2.25, 5.07]25% [9%, 40%]39%54%+0.24+0.482026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall28 2 QC2.95 [1.77, 4.67]2.04+2.65 [1.33, 4.63]3.67 [2.22, 5.29]25% [8%, 39%]39%54%+0.24+0.482026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d28 2 QC3.05 [1.94, 4.41]2.09+2.69 [1.34, 4.30]3.73 [2.38, 5.03]25% [11%, 37%]32%50%+0.22+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d28 2 QC3.05 [1.86, 4.85]2.09+2.69 [1.24, 4.79]3.73 [2.30, 5.36]25% [9%, 40%]32%50%+0.22+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d28 2 QC3.05 [1.85, 4.63]2.09+2.69 [1.18, 4.63]3.73 [2.26, 5.15]25% [9%, 40%]32%50%+0.22+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall28 2 QC3.05 [1.86, 4.81]2.09+2.69 [1.25, 4.80]3.73 [2.25, 5.35]25% [8%, 39%]32%50%+0.22+0.462026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -1.37 °F2026-08-04: -5.39 °F2026-08-05: -3.67 °F2026-08-06: -4.1 °F2026-08-07: -2.46 °F2026-08-08: -4.98 °F2026-08-09: -2.36 °F2026-08-10: -3.66 °F2026-08-11: -2.05 °F2026-08-12: -1.08 °F2026-08-13: -4.33 °F2026-08-14: -4.51 °F2026-08-15: -1.81 °F2026-08-16: -3.91 °F2026-08-17: -5.45 °F2026-08-18: -6.2 °F2026-08-19: +0.12 °F2026-08-20: -6.47 °F2026-08-21: -2.47 °F2026-08-22: +1.47 °F2026-08-23: -4.59 °F2026-08-24: -4.72 °F2026-08-25: -7.68 °F2026-08-26: -0.97 °F2026-08-27: -4.4 °F2026-08-28: -5.12 °F2026-08-29: -4.47 °F2026-08-30: -3.25 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.25
2026-08-29-4.47
2026-08-28-5.12
2026-08-27-4.40
2026-08-26-0.97
2026-08-25-7.68
2026-08-24-4.72
2026-08-23-4.59
2026-08-22+1.47
2026-08-21-2.47
2026-08-20-6.47
2026-08-19+0.12
2026-08-18-6.20
2026-08-17-5.45
2026-08-16-3.91
2026-08-15-1.81
2026-08-14-4.51
2026-08-13-4.33
2026-08-12-1.08
2026-08-11-2.05
2026-08-10-3.66
2026-08-09-2.36
2026-08-08-4.98
2026-08-07-2.46
2026-08-06-4.10
2026-08-05-3.67
2026-08-04-5.39
2026-08-03-1.37

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 8 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.01 · P90 |e| 5.67 °F-100+10 °Fn = 28 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.008
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08283.68 -3.57

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -4.01 [-4.01, -4.01] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -3.77 [-3.77, -3.77] yes
NCEP GFS 28 +0.55 [-1.07, 1.99] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 26 -4.07 [-4.99, -2.58] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +0.73 [-0.15, 1.23] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -1.71 [-1.71, -1.71] yes
Persistence (baseline) 28 -1.07 [-2.70, 0.26] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC aifs_single lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model aifs_single, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence