KORD — Chicago O'Hare
41.9797, -87.9044 · 203 m· standard offset UTC-6 h · truth product CLIORD
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 3.20-3.17 · n=30 | 3.29-3.29 · n=29 | 3.58-3.56 · n=28 | 3.66-3.20 · n=27 | 3.19-2.87 · n=26 | 3.47-2.99 · n=25 | 4.24-3.50 · n=24 | 4.66-4.45 · n=23 | 5.53-4.54 · n=22 | 5.28-4.26 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 5.11-5.11 · n=2 | 6.69-6.69 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 2.95-2.95 · n=3 | 2.70-2.70 · n=2 | 1.43-1.43 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 1.52-1.52 · n=2 | 2.63-2.63 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 3.36-3.36 · n=3 | 2.45-2.45 · n=2 | 0.02-0.02 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.26-2.11 · n=30 | 2.57-1.96 · n=29 | 2.94-1.21 · n=28 | 3.92-1.27 · n=27 | 3.15-1.15 · n=26 | 3.40-1.22 · n=25 | 2.84-1.04 · n=24 | 5.61-3.56 · n=23 | 4.65-2.17 · n=22 | 7.17-3.20 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 3.52-3.52 · n=2 | 6.94-6.94 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 3.54-3.54 · n=28 | 3.52-3.49 · n=27 | 4.29-4.20 · n=26 | 3.98-3.94 · n=25 | 4.08-3.86 · n=25 | 3.67-3.36 · n=25 | 4.09-3.65 · n=24 | 4.22-3.30 · n=23 | 4.57-2.86 · n=22 | 5.11-3.01 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.42-1.73 · n=24 | 2.98-2.01 · n=23 | 2.77-1.90 · n=22 | 2.62-1.54 · n=22 | 2.51-1.98 · n=20 | 2.79-1.17 · n=18 | 3.45-1.85 · n=19 | 3.40-2.89 · n=18 | 5.13-2.53 · n=17 | 5.73-2.56 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.36-2.36 · n=2 | 4.23-4.23 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.71-2.71 · n=3 | 4.02-4.02 · n=2 | 1.44-1.44 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.12-0.10 · n=90 | 5.41-0.17 · n=90 | 5.52-0.28 · n=90 | 6.04-0.24 · n=90 | 6.40-0.38 · n=90 | 6.93-0.36 · n=90 | 7.49-0.29 · n=90 | 7.04-0.22 · n=90 | 6.72-0.28 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 1.55+0.69 · n=30 | 1.71+0.51 · n=29 | 1.59+0.10 · n=28 | 1.61+0.17 · n=27 | 1.94+0.53 · n=26 | 2.24+0.62 · n=25 | 1.93+0.32 · n=24 | 2.55-0.28 · n=23 | 2.83-0.27 · n=22 | 3.62-0.35 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 0.91+0.91 · n=2 | 0.87+0.87 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 0.90+0.90 · n=3 | 1.32+1.32 · n=2 | 0.40+0.40 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 1.56+1.56 · n=2 | 2.97+2.97 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 1.66+0.14 · n=3 | 2.27+2.27 · n=2 | 2.44+2.44 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.76+0.40 · n=30 | 1.65+0.41 · n=29 | 1.88+0.46 · n=28 | 2.27+0.79 · n=27 | 2.45+0.57 · n=26 | 3.20+1.30 · n=25 | 3.94+0.62 · n=24 | 3.64-0.27 · n=23 | 5.17-0.17 · n=22 | 5.58-0.53 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 0.75+0.75 · n=2 | 0.90+0.90 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.28+0.68 · n=28 | 1.47+0.57 · n=27 | 1.39+0.09 · n=26 | 1.77+0.09 · n=25 | 1.92+0.04 · n=25 | 1.50+0.11 · n=25 | 2.06+0.10 · n=24 | 3.53-0.00 · n=23 | 4.81+0.42 · n=22 | 5.70+0.11 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.20+0.36 · n=24 | 1.57+0.48 · n=23 | 1.60+1.05 · n=22 | 1.79+0.39 · n=22 | 2.29+0.82 · n=20 | 2.35+0.86 · n=18 | 1.44+0.48 · n=19 | 2.17+0.43 · n=18 | 3.66+0.98 · n=17 | 4.30+1.27 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 1.79+1.79 · n=2 | 2.01+2.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.10+2.10 · n=3 | 1.85+1.85 · n=2 | 1.54+1.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 3.32-0.17 · n=90 | 4.32-0.28 · n=90 | 5.32-0.41 · n=90 | 5.37-0.59 · n=90 | 5.86-0.81 · n=90 | 6.53-0.82 · n=90 | 6.91-0.76 · n=90 | 6.80-0.78 · n=90 | 6.83-0.88 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum — the seasonal slice behind the window averages. A model that is excellent in one season and poor in another shows up here and nowhere else.
| Month | aifs_single | aurora_gfs | aurora_ifs | fourcastnet_gfs | fourcastnet_ifs | gfs | graphcast_gfs | graphcast_ifs | ifs_hres | pangu_gfs | pangu_ifs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 3.29-3.29 · n=29 | 6.69-6.69 · n=1 | 2.70-2.70 · n=2 | 2.63-2.63 · n=1 | 2.45-2.45 · n=2 | 2.57-1.96 · n=29 | 6.94-6.94 · n=1 | 3.52-3.49 · n=27 | 2.98-2.01 · n=23 | 4.23-4.23 · n=1 | 4.02-4.02 · n=2 |
| 2026-01 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81-3.81 · n=6 | — | — | — |
Model availability at this station
| Model | Period | Scored days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| NCEP GFS | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 33 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 23 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 |
Observed truth — last 30 days
| Climatological day | Tmax °F | Tmin °F | Source | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 82 | 69 | OBS | obs_fallback |
| 2026-08-29 | 81 | 65 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-28 | 83 | 66 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-27 | 82 | 65 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-26 | 84 | 70 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-25 | 81 | 60 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-24 | 78 | 58 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-23 | 77 | 61 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-22 | 82 | 66 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-21 | 80 | 62 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-20 | 78 | 62 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-19 | 80 | 65 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-18 | 81 | 66 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-17 | 80 | 67 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-16 | 86 | 70 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-15 | 79 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-14 | 80 | 70 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-13 | 78 | 69 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-12 | 84 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-11 | 81 | 69 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-10 | 87 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-09 | 84 | 66 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-08 | 84 | 70 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-07 | 87 | 68 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-06 | 82 | 69 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-05 | 82 | 70 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-04 | 86 | 69 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-03 | 83 | 62 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-02 | 78 | 65 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-01 | 73 | 65 | CLI |
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences