KORD — Chicago O'Hare
41.9797, -87.9044 · 203 m· standard offset UTC-6 h · truth product CLIORD
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 3.30-3.30 · n=29 | 3.42-3.38 · n=28 | 3.46-3.26 · n=27 | 3.11-2.76 · n=26 | 3.52-2.98 · n=24 | 3.83-3.29 · n=24 | 4.60-4.38 · n=23 | 5.06-4.58 · n=22 | 5.71-5.03 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 4.12-4.12 · n=2 | 8.53-8.53 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 1.79-1.79 · n=2 | 1.83-1.83 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 0.81-0.81 · n=2 | 1.13-1.13 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 2.02-2.02 · n=2 | 1.55-1.55 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 2.12-1.73 · n=29 | 2.22-0.27 · n=28 | 2.52+0.24 · n=27 | 3.04-1.16 · n=26 | 2.83-1.37 · n=25 | 3.20-1.17 · n=24 | 4.18-2.97 · n=23 | 4.45-1.22 · n=22 | 4.86-2.60 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 3.06-3.06 · n=2 | 6.15-6.15 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 4.01-4.01 · n=27 | 4.38-4.35 · n=26 | 4.53-4.45 · n=25 | 3.95-3.84 · n=25 | 4.01-3.60 · n=25 | 4.06-3.62 · n=24 | 4.15-3.41 · n=23 | 4.35-3.42 · n=22 | 4.50-3.04 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 2.81-2.58 · n=24 | 2.64-2.29 · n=22 | 2.89-1.84 · n=22 | 2.50-1.95 · n=21 | 2.31-1.41 · n=20 | 3.28-1.69 · n=19 | 3.64-3.11 · n=17 | 4.82-3.95 · n=17 | 4.51-4.03 · n=15 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 1.45-0.89 · n=2 | 0.41-0.41 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 1.62-1.57 · n=2 | 0.32+0.32 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.12-0.10 · n=90 | 5.41-0.17 · n=90 | 5.52-0.28 · n=90 | 6.04-0.24 · n=90 | 6.40-0.38 · n=90 | 6.93-0.36 · n=90 | 7.49-0.29 · n=90 | 7.04-0.22 · n=90 | 6.72-0.28 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 1.71+0.66 · n=29 | 1.55+0.28 · n=28 | 1.55+0.18 · n=27 | 1.74+0.60 · n=26 | 2.04+0.60 · n=24 | 2.26+0.57 · n=24 | 1.98+0.07 · n=23 | 2.91-0.70 · n=22 | 3.58-1.66 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 1.41+1.41 · n=2 | 0.31-0.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 0.99+0.99 · n=2 | 0.39+0.39 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 2.44+2.44 · n=2 | 2.16+2.16 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 2.07+2.07 · n=2 | 2.32+2.32 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 1.75+0.44 · n=29 | 2.20+0.42 · n=28 | 2.51+1.02 · n=27 | 2.55+0.98 · n=26 | 2.45+0.86 · n=25 | 2.99+1.21 · n=24 | 3.27+0.38 · n=23 | 4.58+0.62 · n=22 | 4.06+0.12 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 1.87+1.87 · n=2 | 0.32+0.32 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 1.40+0.08 · n=27 | 1.41+0.03 · n=26 | 1.51-0.20 · n=25 | 1.76+0.12 · n=25 | 1.71-0.08 · n=25 | 1.91+0.09 · n=24 | 2.30+0.37 · n=23 | 4.03-0.15 · n=22 | 5.99-0.47 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 1.47+0.16 · n=24 | 1.55+0.13 · n=22 | 1.79+0.30 · n=22 | 2.07+0.56 · n=21 | 2.31+0.55 · n=20 | 2.24+0.68 · n=19 | 2.30+0.78 · n=17 | 3.50+0.42 · n=17 | 3.13-1.13 · n=15 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 3.49+3.49 · n=2 | 1.41+1.41 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 2.03+2.03 · n=2 | 2.09+2.09 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 3.32-0.17 · n=90 | 4.32-0.28 · n=90 | 5.32-0.41 · n=90 | 5.37-0.59 · n=90 | 5.86-0.81 · n=90 | 6.53-0.82 · n=90 | 6.91-0.76 · n=90 | 6.80-0.78 · n=90 | 6.83-0.88 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences