Aurora (GFS init) (aurora_gfs)
source aiwp · product AURO · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.
Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 6.59-6.59 · n=2 | 7.11-7.11 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | 7.40-7.40 · n=2 | 9.37-9.37 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | 3.94-3.94 · n=2 | 5.54-5.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | 6.64-6.64 · n=2 | 8.08-8.08 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | 6.09-6.09 · n=2 | 5.01-5.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | 4.68-4.68 · n=2 | 6.05-6.05 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | 3.96-3.96 · n=2 | 2.84-2.84 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | 5.35-5.35 · n=2 | 6.38-6.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | 5.38-5.38 · n=2 | 5.12-5.12 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | 5.90-5.90 · n=2 | 5.95-5.95 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | 6.96-6.96 · n=2 | 6.93-6.93 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | 6.37-6.37 · n=2 | 8.11-8.11 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | 7.03-7.03 · n=2 | 7.22-7.22 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | 0.95-0.95 · n=2 | 0.24-0.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | 5.15-5.15 · n=2 | 7.52-7.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | 5.11-5.11 · n=2 | 6.69-6.69 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | 5.01-5.01 · n=2 | 6.52-6.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | 13.44-13.44 · n=2 | 14.58-14.58 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | 5.78-5.78 · n=2 | 4.06-4.06 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | 7.33-7.33 · n=2 | 7.82-7.82 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | 5.10-5.10 · n=2 | 4.50-4.50 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | 7.68-7.68 · n=2 | 6.64-6.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | 1.62-1.62 · n=2 | 2.43-2.43 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 1.27-1.27 · n=2 | 0.51-0.51 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | 5.95+5.95 · n=2 | 4.73+4.73 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | 3.59-3.59 · n=2 | 4.79-4.79 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | 1.70-1.70 · n=2 | 1.54-1.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | 4.22+4.22 · n=2 | 2.89+2.89 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | 3.12+3.12 · n=2 | 0.56+0.56 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | 1.70+1.70 · n=2 | 2.04+2.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | 1.02+1.02 · n=2 | 0.73+0.73 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | 6.88-6.88 · n=2 | 8.05-8.05 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | 1.90-1.90 · n=2 | 2.74-2.74 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | 2.72+1.99 · n=2 | 2.10-2.10 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | 0.51+0.44 · n=2 | 2.13-2.13 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | 2.67-0.05 · n=2 | 3.19-3.19 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | 0.82+0.82 · n=2 | 0.51+0.51 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | 7.90+7.90 · n=2 | 5.94+5.94 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | 0.91+0.91 · n=2 | 0.87+0.87 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | 0.66-0.35 · n=2 | 1.31+1.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | 5.38-5.38 · n=2 | 6.82-6.82 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | 2.08-2.08 · n=2 | 3.02-3.02 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | 0.99-0.99 · n=2 | 2.30-2.30 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | 1.13+1.13 · n=2 | 0.38+0.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | 0.57+0.24 · n=2 | 0.33-0.33 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | 4.25+4.25 · n=2 | 6.21+6.21 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum, per station.
| Month | KATL | KAUS | KBOS | KDCA | KDEN | KDFW | KEWR | KIAH | KLAS | KLAX | KMIA | KMSP | KMSY | KNYC | KOKC | KORD | KPHL | KPHX | KSAN | KSAT | KSEA | KSFO | KTTN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 7.11-7.11 · n=1 | 9.37-9.37 · n=1 | 5.54-5.54 · n=1 | 8.08-8.08 · n=1 | 5.01-5.01 · n=1 | 6.05-6.05 · n=1 | 2.84-2.84 · n=1 | 6.38-6.38 · n=1 | 5.12-5.12 · n=1 | 5.95-5.95 · n=1 | 6.93-6.93 · n=1 | 8.11-8.11 · n=1 | 7.22-7.22 · n=1 | 0.24-0.24 · n=1 | 7.52-7.52 · n=1 | 6.69-6.69 · n=1 | 6.52-6.52 · n=1 | 14.58-14.58 · n=1 | 4.06-4.06 · n=1 | 7.82-7.82 · n=1 | 4.50-4.50 · n=1 | 6.64-6.64 · n=1 | 2.43-2.43 · n=1 |
Source and licence
Where it comes from
aiwp · AURO · GFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences