CastCheck v0.3.1 · data through 2026-10-28

Model

Aurora (GFS init)

aurora_gfs

source aiwp · product AURO · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

aiwp GFS initAURO_v100
Window
the last 90 days
Init
00Z
Interpolation
bilinear
Data through
2026-10-28
Updated
Next update

Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2

Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

the last 90 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.32−1.57 · n=562.57−1.86 · n=562.90−2.09 · n=552.85−2.12 · n=543.01−1.94 · n=553.70−2.31 · n=564.02−2.47 · n=554.22−2.63 · n=554.90−2.50 · n=555.04−2.69 · n=55KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KAUS3.21+0.24 · n=563.34−0.55 · n=563.59−1.49 · n=554.06−1.82 · n=544.17−2.39 · n=554.50−2.67 · n=565.19−3.21 · n=555.77−3.73 · n=556.23−4.27 · n=556.67−4.54 · n=55KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KBOS2.72−2.38 · n=532.83−2.40 · n=512.92−2.52 · n=523.06−2.44 · n=523.33−2.75 · n=524.18−3.06 · n=534.33−2.73 · n=524.64−2.80 · n=534.97−2.92 · n=525.73−3.81 · n=52KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDCA2.86−2.64 · n=562.73−2.35 · n=563.00−2.32 · n=553.13−2.54 · n=543.64−2.91 · n=553.95−3.21 · n=564.49−3.17 · n=554.66−3.42 · n=555.30−3.46 · n=555.84−3.89 · n=55KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDEN2.85−1.37 · n=563.20−1.93 · n=564.15−3.12 · n=554.61−3.47 · n=544.98−3.81 · n=555.75−4.66 · n=566.66−5.23 · n=555.97−4.41 · n=556.72−5.19 · n=55—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDFW1.95−0.64 · n=562.73−2.32 · n=563.47−3.24 · n=554.09−3.81 · n=545.07−4.70 · n=555.71−5.30 · n=566.50−5.91 · n=557.28−6.50 · n=557.71−6.98 · n=558.07−6.92 · n=55KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KEWR2.35−1.69 · n=562.63−1.96 · n=562.78−1.75 · n=553.15−2.12 · n=543.74−2.74 · n=554.18−2.97 · n=564.42−3.04 · n=554.51−2.95 · n=554.96−3.07 · n=555.42−3.72 · n=55KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KIAH2.23−0.75 · n=562.67−1.43 · n=562.98−1.81 · n=553.31−2.40 · n=543.61−2.65 · n=553.97−2.82 · n=564.49−3.27 · n=554.83−3.49 · n=555.42−3.89 · n=555.77−4.32 · n=55KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAS4.63−4.46 · n=565.17−5.08 · n=565.80−5.62 · n=556.38−5.96 · n=546.30−5.89 · n=556.65−6.03 · n=566.89−5.70 · n=557.09−6.10 · n=557.74−6.58 · n=55—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAX2.42−2.15 · n=562.96−2.82 · n=563.46−3.39 · n=553.79−3.53 · n=543.95−3.66 · n=553.81−3.41 · n=563.93−3.04 · n=554.39−2.97 · n=555.01−3.71 · n=55—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMIA2.11−0.91 · n=562.68−2.26 · n=562.70−2.04 · n=552.93−2.25 · n=542.86−2.14 · n=552.73−1.76 · n=562.71−1.79 · n=552.91−1.71 · n=552.98−1.88 · n=553.04−2.03 · n=55KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSP1.99−1.29 · n=562.57−1.88 · n=563.06−2.44 · n=553.53−3.04 · n=544.35−3.23 · n=555.47−4.42 · n=565.90−4.96 · n=556.51−5.12 · n=556.38−4.47 · n=556.65−5.08 · n=55KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSY2.29−0.89 · n=562.35−0.84 · n=562.53−1.10 · n=552.72−1.40 · n=542.94−1.66 · n=553.26−1.87 · n=563.61−1.62 · n=553.57−1.91 · n=554.03−1.81 · n=553.89−1.60 · n=55KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KNYC1.46−0.27 · n=561.78−0.67 · n=552.05−0.36 · n=542.34−0.71 · n=542.70−1.25 · n=553.25−1.60 · n=553.40−1.62 · n=543.54−1.47 · n=543.75−1.64 · n=554.48−2.38 · n=54KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KOKC3.72+0.83 · n=563.89−0.80 · n=564.42−2.00 · n=554.71−2.77 · n=545.15−3.47 · n=556.04−4.14 · n=566.91−5.04 · n=557.53−5.89 · n=557.87−5.98 · n=557.74−5.72 · n=55KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KORD1.95−1.21 · n=562.10−1.53 · n=562.61−1.71 · n=553.17−2.26 · n=543.42−2.43 · n=554.08−2.64 · n=564.49−3.20 · n=555.19−3.79 · n=555.31−3.59 · n=555.15−3.25 · n=55KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHL3.00−2.75 · n=563.03−2.64 · n=563.12−2.44 · n=553.55−2.80 · n=543.97−3.39 · n=554.33−3.41 · n=564.78−3.76 · n=554.89−3.77 · n=555.39−3.79 · n=555.91−4.23 · n=55KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHX5.30−4.81 · n=566.02−5.46 · n=566.48−5.98 · n=556.84−5.93 · n=546.68−5.98 · n=556.48−5.23 · n=566.89−5.14 · n=557.61−5.41 · n=557.70−5.94 · n=55—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAN3.40−3.15 · n=563.90−3.71 · n=564.19−4.09 · n=554.33−4.19 · n=544.48−4.30 · n=554.39−4.07 · n=564.51−4.05 · n=554.69−4.00 · n=555.21−4.34 · n=55—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAT1.82−0.89 · n=562.43−1.67 · n=562.92−2.51 · n=553.36−2.96 · n=543.78−3.33 · n=554.22−3.57 · n=564.87−4.18 · n=555.56−4.63 · n=556.04−5.17 · n=556.52−5.45 · n=55KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSEA2.08−0.59 · n=562.21−1.17 · n=562.46−1.26 · n=552.69−1.26 · n=542.85−1.57 · n=553.10−1.55 · n=563.21−1.09 · n=553.42−1.01 · n=553.55−1.05 · n=55—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSFO2.35−1.42 · n=562.46−1.37 · n=562.72−1.73 · n=552.66−1.70 · n=542.78−1.52 · n=552.73−1.46 · n=563.26−1.59 · n=553.09−1.42 · n=553.46−2.13 · n=55—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KTTN1.67+0.08 · n=552.02+0.27 · n=552.24+0.41 · n=542.53+0.00 · n=543.00−0.40 · n=543.32−0.73 · n=563.56−0.73 · n=553.60−0.80 · n=554.25−0.79 · n=544.74−1.53 · n=55KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing

Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s

Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 90 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL1.71−1.03 · n=562.19−1.79 · n=562.88−2.34 · n=552.56−2.28 · n=543.04−2.31 · n=553.87−2.74 · n=564.44−3.02 · n=554.63−3.05 · n=555.42−2.67 · n=555.79−3.46 · n=55KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KAUS3.01−2.92 · n=563.86−3.64 · n=565.02−5.01 · n=555.51−5.36 · n=546.01−5.76 · n=556.47−6.14 · n=567.20−6.86 · n=558.39−7.64 · n=558.61−8.20 · n=558.78−8.07 · n=55KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KBOS2.52−2.22 · n=532.93−2.72 · n=513.15−2.98 · n=523.00−2.60 · n=523.49−2.95 · n=524.60−3.61 · n=534.78−2.74 · n=525.16−3.15 · n=535.50−3.34 · n=526.53−4.50 · n=52KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDCA2.96−2.76 · n=563.40−3.04 · n=563.53−3.13 · n=553.96−3.53 · n=544.22−3.93 · n=554.72−3.81 · n=565.35−4.05 · n=554.82−4.29 · n=556.22−4.57 · n=556.33−4.66 · n=55KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDEN2.77−2.55 · n=563.56−3.22 · n=565.04−4.79 · n=555.39−5.07 · n=546.10−5.68 · n=557.16−6.56 · n=568.30−7.18 · n=557.23−6.02 · n=557.84−6.84 · n=55—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDFW2.10−1.95 · n=563.71−3.70 · n=564.58−4.58 · n=555.25−5.20 · n=546.25−6.03 · n=556.94−6.58 · n=567.78−7.51 · n=558.72−8.19 · n=559.07−8.67 · n=559.25−8.26 · n=55KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KEWR2.87−2.65 · n=563.54−3.28 · n=563.54−2.89 · n=553.86−3.36 · n=544.58−4.22 · n=555.35−4.39 · n=565.40−4.14 · n=555.38−4.55 · n=556.26−4.53 · n=556.15−4.99 · n=55KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KIAH2.73−2.59 · n=563.40−3.06 · n=564.03−3.67 · n=554.23−3.96 · n=544.72−4.50 · n=555.09−4.37 · n=565.71−5.26 · n=556.21−5.31 · n=556.77−6.25 · n=557.05−6.12 · n=55KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAS4.49−4.38 · n=565.21−5.06 · n=565.89−5.61 · n=556.26−6.01 · n=546.17−5.80 · n=556.67−5.98 · n=567.19−5.57 · n=557.72−6.37 · n=558.29−6.86 · n=55—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAX2.71−2.51 · n=563.17−3.08 · n=563.76−3.68 · n=554.05−3.85 · n=544.21−3.95 · n=553.89−3.48 · n=563.96−3.02 · n=554.80−2.94 · n=555.75−4.05 · n=55—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMIA3.03−2.53 · n=563.85−3.75 · n=563.21−2.84 · n=553.90−3.61 · n=543.84−3.20 · n=553.22−2.52 · n=563.11−2.54 · n=553.77−2.64 · n=553.94−2.87 · n=553.65−2.79 · n=55KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSP2.30−2.16 · n=563.33−3.00 · n=563.86−3.57 · n=554.26−4.03 · n=545.46−4.48 · n=556.60−5.85 · n=566.93−6.07 · n=556.76−5.62 · n=557.06−5.41 · n=557.81−6.33 · n=55KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSY3.30−3.29 · n=563.34−3.32 · n=563.74−3.63 · n=554.14−4.13 · n=544.50−4.38 · n=554.80−4.56 · n=564.93−4.43 · n=554.92−4.53 · n=555.37−4.56 · n=554.99−4.43 · n=55KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KNYC1.29−0.24 · n=561.80−0.90 · n=552.22−0.38 · n=542.66−1.09 · n=542.82−1.76 · n=553.50−2.15 · n=554.00−1.96 · n=543.87−2.22 · n=544.39−2.07 · n=554.75−2.80 · n=54KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KOKC3.01−2.59 · n=564.54−4.00 · n=565.66−5.39 · n=556.19−5.91 · n=547.23−7.07 · n=558.57−7.71 · n=569.79−9.17 · n=5510.72−9.83 · n=5510.16−9.45 · n=5510.12−8.91 · n=55KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KORD2.00−1.66 · n=562.51−2.34 · n=562.89−2.52 · n=553.76−3.45 · n=543.91−3.25 · n=554.40−3.73 · n=564.92−4.14 · n=555.58−4.59 · n=555.33−4.25 · n=555.41−3.93 · n=55KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHL2.65−2.50 · n=563.42−2.92 · n=563.38−2.70 · n=553.67−3.19 · n=544.22−3.84 · n=554.48−3.73 · n=564.99−4.05 · n=554.74−4.11 · n=555.71−4.16 · n=555.56−4.19 · n=55KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHX5.28−4.99 · n=566.03−5.83 · n=566.38−6.08 · n=556.79−6.22 · n=546.36−5.96 · n=556.02−5.13 · n=566.77−4.71 · n=557.46−5.08 · n=557.61−5.77 · n=55—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAN4.76−4.76 · n=565.33−5.33 · n=565.62−5.62 · n=555.81−5.81 · n=546.07−6.02 · n=555.74−5.65 · n=565.85−5.60 · n=556.03−5.56 · n=556.76−5.99 · n=55—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAT2.34−2.27 · n=563.23−3.17 · n=564.22−4.22 · n=554.76−4.72 · n=545.07−4.94 · n=555.62−5.43 · n=566.22−6.03 · n=557.47−6.92 · n=557.39−6.99 · n=557.77−7.44 · n=55KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSEA2.72−2.38 · n=563.20−2.93 · n=563.41−3.12 · n=554.02−3.44 · n=544.15−3.52 · n=554.49−3.27 · n=564.08−2.63 · n=554.57−2.76 · n=555.08−2.92 · n=55—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSFO3.42−2.91 · n=563.45−2.66 · n=563.92−3.06 · n=553.57−2.86 · n=543.94−2.65 · n=553.61−2.46 · n=564.68−2.72 · n=554.19−2.58 · n=555.02−3.71 · n=55—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KTTN1.41−0.10 · n=551.87−0.58 · n=552.35−0.55 · n=542.38−0.87 · n=542.84−1.50 · n=543.77−1.68 · n=563.81−1.47 · n=553.43−1.87 · n=554.54−1.73 · n=544.71−2.01 · n=55KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s

Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s

Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 90 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL1.64−0.88 · n=561.62−0.65 · n=561.71−0.92 · n=551.72−0.69 · n=541.78−0.60 · n=552.39−0.73 · n=562.46−0.85 · n=552.78−1.13 · n=553.36−0.93 · n=553.55−0.91 · n=55KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KAUS4.14+3.97 · n=563.59+3.15 · n=562.96+2.53 · n=553.14+2.48 · n=542.61+1.67 · n=552.84+1.28 · n=563.22+1.45 · n=553.07+1.02 · n=553.87+0.59 · n=554.46−0.17 · n=55KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KBOS2.15−1.89 · n=531.95−1.42 · n=512.08−1.49 · n=522.22−1.49 · n=522.24−1.87 · n=522.99−1.62 · n=533.34−1.86 · n=523.49−1.61 · n=533.56−1.50 · n=524.50−2.32 · n=52KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDCA2.23−1.96 · n=561.68−1.07 · n=561.86−0.97 · n=551.92−1.22 · n=542.58−1.65 · n=552.58−1.91 · n=563.30−1.75 · n=553.69−1.75 · n=554.02−1.72 · n=555.16−2.51 · n=55KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDEN1.92+0.02 · n=562.24−0.85 · n=562.96−1.72 · n=553.24−2.09 · n=543.48−2.45 · n=554.14−3.34 · n=565.22−4.32 · n=554.93−3.84 · n=554.58−3.94 · n=55—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDFW1.55+0.90 · n=561.17−0.41 · n=561.69−1.23 · n=552.06−1.53 · n=542.88−2.38 · n=553.64−3.14 · n=564.23−3.34 · n=554.70−3.78 · n=555.57−4.28 · n=555.82−4.54 · n=55KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KEWR1.50+0.00 · n=561.42−0.18 · n=562.00−0.09 · n=552.28−0.26 · n=542.53−0.73 · n=552.61−0.87 · n=563.01−1.12 · n=553.28−0.81 · n=553.47−0.79 · n=554.30−1.63 · n=55KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KIAH1.72+1.37 · n=561.62+0.51 · n=561.77+0.30 · n=551.84−0.41 · n=542.09−0.50 · n=552.54−0.90 · n=562.88−0.81 · n=552.95−1.24 · n=553.89−1.13 · n=554.10−1.94 · n=55KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAS4.94−4.72 · n=565.21−5.16 · n=565.69−5.68 · n=556.11−5.94 · n=545.89−5.64 · n=556.06−5.97 · n=566.11−5.56 · n=555.84−5.51 · n=556.51−5.87 · n=55—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAX2.22−2.08 · n=562.62−2.52 · n=563.26−3.26 · n=553.58−3.58 · n=543.76−3.71 · n=553.65−3.54 · n=563.75−3.44 · n=553.70−3.20 · n=554.38−3.68 · n=55—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMIA1.46+0.27 · n=561.70−1.04 · n=561.82−1.36 · n=551.97−1.25 · n=541.95−1.33 · n=551.82−0.91 · n=561.76−0.93 · n=551.91−0.72 · n=552.15−1.05 · n=552.10−0.95 · n=55KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSP1.33−0.30 · n=561.46−0.49 · n=561.80−0.97 · n=552.34−1.75 · n=542.84−1.76 · n=554.10−2.88 · n=564.71−3.68 · n=555.77−4.28 · n=555.12−3.04 · n=555.53−3.42 · n=55KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSY1.88+1.25 · n=561.94+1.33 · n=561.69+1.04 · n=551.98+0.89 · n=541.89+0.69 · n=552.29+0.33 · n=562.75+0.62 · n=552.40+0.21 · n=553.28+0.54 · n=553.11+0.54 · n=55KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KNYC1.32+0.56 · n=561.47+0.23 · n=552.01+0.42 · n=542.12+0.49 · n=542.17+0.01 · n=552.60−0.30 · n=552.62−0.44 · n=542.96−0.08 · n=542.97−0.32 · n=553.90−1.06 · n=54KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KOKC4.57+4.28 · n=563.57+2.68 · n=563.07+1.71 · n=553.12+0.98 · n=543.16+0.42 · n=553.61−0.25 · n=564.22−0.48 · n=554.48−1.86 · n=555.22−1.88 · n=554.84−1.60 · n=55KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KORD1.37−0.16 · n=561.27−0.24 · n=561.86−0.22 · n=552.06−0.76 · n=542.50−1.09 · n=552.89−1.03 · n=563.57−1.64 · n=554.20−2.29 · n=554.71−2.23 · n=554.32−1.69 · n=55KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHL2.33−2.15 · n=561.84−1.56 · n=562.24−1.50 · n=552.57−1.39 · n=542.95−2.24 · n=553.01−2.17 · n=563.87−2.53 · n=554.22−2.48 · n=554.20−2.29 · n=555.17−3.14 · n=55KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHX5.08−4.71 · n=565.48−5.21 · n=566.26−6.10 · n=556.06−5.84 · n=546.34−6.15 · n=556.35−5.97 · n=566.46−6.04 · n=557.23−6.47 · n=557.20−6.76 · n=55—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAN2.15−1.28 · n=562.68−2.08 · n=562.75−2.43 · n=552.96−2.58 · n=543.03−2.52 · n=553.08−2.50 · n=563.55−2.78 · n=553.71−2.47 · n=553.74−2.64 · n=55—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAT1.33+0.07 · n=561.81−0.45 · n=561.91−1.21 · n=552.34−1.38 · n=542.53−1.88 · n=553.01−2.02 · n=563.43−2.29 · n=553.77−2.54 · n=554.77−3.19 · n=555.28−3.54 · n=55KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSEA1.48+0.81 · n=561.39+0.39 · n=561.57+0.25 · n=551.68+0.49 · n=541.73−0.03 · n=551.98−0.22 · n=562.44+0.17 · n=552.23+0.37 · n=552.45+0.57 · n=55—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSFO1.38−0.03 · n=561.64−0.19 · n=561.66−0.47 · n=551.82−0.59 · n=541.82−0.36 · n=551.88−0.55 · n=562.02−0.57 · n=551.95−0.30 · n=552.16−0.63 · n=55—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KTTN1.67+1.09 · n=552.17+1.65 · n=552.39+1.66 · n=542.38+1.40 · n=542.91+1.22 · n=542.55+0.77 · n=563.09+0.81 · n=553.24+0.79 · n=553.47+1.11 · n=544.22−0.04 · n=55KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s

Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)

This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.

Daily maximum vs NWS CLI

the last 90 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL4.12−4.12 · n=564.91−4.91 · n=565.53−5.32 · n=555.53−5.53 · n=545.75−5.43 · n=556.33−5.81 · n=566.85−6.18 · n=556.81−6.03 · n=557.47−5.79 · n=557.60−6.52 · n=55KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KAUS6.94−6.92 · n=567.66−7.66 · n=569.07−9.07 · n=559.42−9.42 · n=549.82−9.82 · n=5510.24−10.09 · n=5611.14−11.02 · n=5512.04−11.55 · n=5512.19−12.00 · n=5512.58−12.16 · n=55KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KBOS4.16−4.15 · n=564.60−4.60 · n=554.67−4.59 · n=544.23−4.15 · n=535.06−4.78 · n=546.38−5.73 · n=565.97−4.55 · n=546.05−4.61 · n=556.81−5.40 · n=557.45−6.35 · n=54KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDCA4.81−4.80 · n=565.48−5.43 · n=565.53−5.36 · n=556.07−5.87 · n=546.31−6.09 · n=556.66−6.18 · n=567.23−6.25 · n=556.98−6.72 · n=557.87−6.55 · n=558.06−6.93 · n=55KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDEN7.05−7.05 · n=567.61−7.50 · n=569.11−9.11 · n=559.45−9.45 · n=5410.22−10.20 · n=5511.47−11.06 · n=5611.68−11.28 · n=5511.23−10.60 · n=5511.63−11.29 · n=55—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDFW5.63−5.63 · n=567.13−7.13 · n=568.25−8.25 · n=558.68−8.68 · n=549.58−9.50 · n=5510.17−10.12 · n=5611.14−10.94 · n=5511.95−11.61 · n=5512.67−12.45 · n=5512.56−11.84 · n=55KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KEWR4.76−4.72 · n=565.22−5.22 · n=565.05−4.83 · n=555.68−5.56 · n=546.23−6.02 · n=556.93−6.40 · n=566.54−6.06 · n=557.04−6.60 · n=557.68−6.44 · n=557.60−6.78 · n=55KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KIAH6.33−6.33 · n=566.97−6.90 · n=567.37−7.27 · n=557.49−7.42 · n=548.10−8.10 · n=558.15−7.92 · n=569.07−8.93 · n=559.34−9.03 · n=559.94−9.92 · n=5510.37−10.01 · n=55KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAS6.20−6.16 · n=566.68−6.67 · n=567.39−7.32 · n=557.93−7.72 · n=547.73−7.66 · n=558.02−7.65 · n=568.53−7.40 · n=558.84−7.82 · n=559.56−8.49 · n=55—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAX5.23−5.23 · n=565.85−5.85 · n=566.54−6.54 · n=556.60−6.60 · n=546.56−6.55 · n=556.35−6.32 · n=565.71−5.46 · n=556.57−5.79 · n=557.48−6.69 · n=55—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMIA4.99−4.99 · n=565.61−5.61 · n=565.38−5.37 · n=555.77−5.77 · n=545.58−5.54 · n=555.30−5.27 · n=564.96−4.95 · n=555.33−5.19 · n=555.22−5.11 · n=555.26−5.07 · n=55KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSP4.91−4.91 · n=565.94−5.91 · n=566.58−6.46 · n=556.84−6.69 · n=547.88−7.32 · n=559.00−8.49 · n=569.37−8.79 · n=559.03−8.41 · n=559.20−7.99 · n=5510.08−9.20 · n=55KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSY5.99−5.99 · n=566.20−6.19 · n=566.48−6.42 · n=556.87−6.87 · n=547.29−7.29 · n=557.40−7.31 · n=567.19−7.09 · n=557.43−7.29 · n=557.65−7.29 · n=557.31−7.12 · n=55KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KNYC2.21−2.06 · n=562.90−2.87 · n=563.05−2.44 · n=553.36−2.87 · n=544.14−3.62 · n=554.74−4.00 · n=564.69−3.62 · n=554.89−3.94 · n=555.62−3.89 · n=555.85−4.46 · n=55KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KOKC6.22−6.03 · n=567.57−7.52 · n=568.83−8.76 · n=559.59−9.59 · n=5410.60−10.60 · n=5511.53−11.16 · n=5612.98−12.54 · n=5514.00−13.38 · n=5513.33−12.87 · n=5513.35−12.38 · n=55KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KORD4.04−4.00 · n=564.47−4.39 · n=564.89−4.81 · n=555.71−5.65 · n=545.83−5.54 · n=556.29−5.86 · n=566.78−6.45 · n=557.19−6.77 · n=556.94−6.38 · n=556.86−6.05 · n=55KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHL4.74−4.71 · n=565.24−5.15 · n=565.05−4.81 · n=555.65−5.58 · n=546.25−6.13 · n=556.38−5.98 · n=566.71−6.11 · n=556.60−6.35 · n=557.47−6.30 · n=557.29−6.41 · n=55KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHX7.56−7.45 · n=568.21−8.13 · n=568.30−8.24 · n=558.59−8.44 · n=548.33−8.28 · n=557.77−7.31 · n=568.03−6.82 · n=559.10−7.42 · n=559.29−8.06 · n=55—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAN6.99−6.99 · n=567.80−7.80 · n=567.98−7.98 · n=558.09−8.09 · n=548.28−8.28 · n=558.11−8.08 · n=567.93−7.92 · n=558.13−8.13 · n=558.78−8.57 · n=55—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAT5.78−5.78 · n=566.80−6.80 · n=567.86−7.86 · n=558.31−8.31 · n=548.61−8.61 · n=559.07−9.05 · n=569.71−9.66 · n=5510.55−10.24 · n=5510.72−10.66 · n=5511.22−11.03 · n=55KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSEA3.93−3.76 · n=564.57−4.48 · n=564.72−4.57 · n=555.11−4.90 · n=545.29−4.86 · n=555.30−4.73 · n=564.86−4.13 · n=555.20−4.22 · n=555.70−4.28 · n=55—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSFO6.45−6.45 · n=566.01−5.97 · n=566.89−6.85 · n=556.53−6.47 · n=546.43−6.32 · n=556.20−6.17 · n=567.07−6.58 · n=556.83−6.42 · n=557.69−7.36 · n=55—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KTTN2.66−2.53 · n=563.15−3.00 · n=563.37−2.66 · n=553.95−3.38 · n=544.42−3.89 · n=555.13−4.09 · n=564.92−3.72 · n=555.03−4.19 · n=556.02−4.20 · n=555.97−4.25 · n=55KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli

Daily minimum vs NWS CLI

the last 90 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL1.53+0.49 · n=561.53+0.72 · n=561.39+0.43 · n=551.65+0.66 · n=541.64+0.60 · n=552.25+0.69 · n=562.17+0.47 · n=552.73+0.25 · n=552.96+0.47 · n=553.33+0.53 · n=55KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KAUS5.31+5.22 · n=564.65+4.48 · n=564.11+3.89 · n=554.14+3.93 · n=543.59+3.25 · n=553.54+2.76 · n=563.91+2.81 · n=553.89+2.46 · n=554.23+1.77 · n=554.73+1.33 · n=55KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KBOS1.44+0.46 · n=561.67+0.71 · n=551.84+0.91 · n=541.70+0.60 · n=531.74+0.25 · n=542.62+0.34 · n=562.50+0.37 · n=542.87+0.22 · n=553.31+0.31 · n=553.73−0.36 · n=54KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDCA1.35+0.10 · n=561.65+0.80 · n=562.29+1.10 · n=552.07+0.68 · n=542.21+0.24 · n=552.33+0.13 · n=562.89+0.11 · n=553.11+0.12 · n=553.69+0.15 · n=554.43−0.62 · n=55KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDEN2.78+2.22 · n=562.42+1.16 · n=562.57+0.63 · n=552.62+0.10 · n=542.60+0.01 · n=553.09−1.01 · n=563.55−2.06 · n=554.12−1.62 · n=553.64−1.77 · n=55—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDFW2.12+1.96 · n=561.19+0.63 · n=561.69−0.27 · n=552.03−0.54 · n=542.84−1.23 · n=553.38−2.10 · n=564.01−2.11 · n=554.42−2.70 · n=555.01−3.04 · n=555.49−3.41 · n=55KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KEWR2.86+2.63 · n=562.41+2.11 · n=562.91+2.34 · n=552.91+1.93 · n=542.85+1.59 · n=553.07+1.53 · n=562.99+1.42 · n=553.12+1.35 · n=553.56+1.69 · n=554.02+0.66 · n=55KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KIAH2.64+2.42 · n=562.32+1.75 · n=562.34+1.53 · n=552.13+0.94 · n=542.37+0.74 · n=552.69+0.48 · n=562.89+0.25 · n=553.11+0.17 · n=553.81−0.05 · n=554.03−0.59 · n=55KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAS3.74−3.34 · n=563.96−3.43 · n=564.28−4.10 · n=554.76−4.10 · n=544.61−4.03 · n=554.89−4.27 · n=564.92−3.91 · n=554.92−3.78 · n=555.54−4.38 · n=55—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAX1.39−0.92 · n=561.70−1.35 · n=562.14−2.08 · n=552.52−2.45 · n=542.73−2.51 · n=552.71−2.49 · n=563.02−2.30 · n=553.07−2.10 · n=553.76−2.44 · n=55—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMIA2.24+2.09 · n=561.58+0.71 · n=561.64+0.48 · n=551.63+0.39 · n=541.80+0.56 · n=551.77+0.74 · n=561.74+0.82 · n=551.95+0.97 · n=552.10+0.86 · n=551.73+0.81 · n=55KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSP1.77+1.16 · n=561.75+1.01 · n=561.57+0.21 · n=552.13−0.08 · n=542.69−0.22 · n=553.72−1.50 · n=564.32−2.41 · n=555.17−2.66 · n=554.60−2.04 · n=554.51−1.79 · n=55KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSY3.18+2.89 · n=563.24+3.04 · n=562.92+2.73 · n=552.99+2.66 · n=542.77+2.26 · n=553.14+2.20 · n=563.21+2.18 · n=553.17+2.10 · n=553.59+2.19 · n=553.40+2.43 · n=55KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KNYC2.60+2.29 · n=562.36+1.99 · n=562.82+2.38 · n=552.56+1.99 · n=542.48+1.48 · n=552.83+1.48 · n=562.54+1.12 · n=552.95+1.44 · n=553.11+1.28 · n=553.54+0.57 · n=55KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KOKC5.50+5.41 · n=564.28+3.91 · n=563.42+2.91 · n=553.37+2.26 · n=543.38+1.78 · n=553.64+1.13 · n=564.01+0.82 · n=554.12−0.35 · n=554.85−0.60 · n=554.50−0.36 · n=55KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KORD1.99+1.28 · n=561.94+1.23 · n=562.37+1.26 · n=552.31+0.55 · n=542.56+0.30 · n=553.00+0.31 · n=563.46−0.46 · n=554.02−1.01 · n=554.61−0.76 · n=554.45−0.25 · n=55KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHL1.42+0.03 · n=561.45+0.53 · n=561.93+0.73 · n=552.22+0.41 · n=542.40−0.35 · n=552.50−0.11 · n=563.10−0.54 · n=553.34−0.51 · n=553.62−0.27 · n=554.38−1.25 · n=55KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHX3.87−3.22 · n=564.29−3.66 · n=565.08−4.52 · n=555.05−4.45 · n=545.23−4.58 · n=555.52−4.54 · n=565.43−4.53 · n=556.15−4.90 · n=556.16−5.29 · n=55—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAN1.81−0.23 · n=562.11−0.80 · n=562.15−1.22 · n=552.52−1.49 · n=542.62−1.27 · n=552.75−1.29 · n=563.09−1.47 · n=553.20−1.22 · n=553.45−1.42 · n=55—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAT1.54+0.86 · n=561.74+0.49 · n=561.62−0.39 · n=552.17−0.32 · n=542.16−0.91 · n=552.84−1.12 · n=562.97−1.41 · n=553.50−1.71 · n=554.14−2.34 · n=554.90−2.50 · n=55KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSEA2.33+2.24 · n=561.97+1.87 · n=561.84+1.72 · n=552.13+2.08 · n=541.84+1.33 · n=551.87+1.41 · n=562.51+1.66 · n=552.49+1.96 · n=552.76+1.93 · n=55—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSFO1.37+0.70 · n=561.52+0.52 · n=561.47+0.27 · n=551.65+0.09 · n=541.61+0.29 · n=551.67+0.13 · n=561.81+0.16 · n=551.99+0.45 · n=552.01+0.16 · n=55—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KTTN4.11+4.11 · n=564.51+4.44 · n=564.78+4.67 · n=554.48+4.16 · n=544.39+3.78 · n=554.36+3.73 · n=564.11+3.70 · n=554.09+3.49 · n=554.99+3.89 · n=554.85+2.60 · n=55KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli

Month by month

MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, instantaneous temperature, per station.

MonthKATLKAUSKBOSKDCAKDENKDFWKEWRKIAHKLASKLAXKMIAKMSPKMSYKNYCKOKCKORDKPHLKPHXKSANKSATKSEAKSFOKTTN
2026-101.69-1.07 · n=684.01-0.00 · n=682.26-1.75 · n=671.87-1.15 · n=682.63-2.02 · n=682.52-2.13 · n=682.44-1.42 · n=682.64-1.18 · n=683.30-3.16 · n=683.67-3.44 · n=682.23-1.98 · n=682.58-1.94 · n=682.25-0.45 · n=681.68-0.65 · n=673.21+0.80 · n=682.02-1.36 · n=682.52-1.75 · n=683.87-3.36 · n=684.07-3.48 · n=682.91-1.50 · n=682.29-1.49 · n=683.06-1.77 · n=682.32+1.03 · n=68
2026-092.37-1.73 · n=803.33-1.15 · n=802.64-2.20 · n=802.88-2.70 · n=803.20-2.03 · n=803.21-2.86 · n=802.66-2.37 · n=802.61-1.39 · n=804.92-4.92 · n=802.91-2.80 · n=802.47-1.76 · n=802.34-1.83 · n=802.16-0.80 · n=801.84-1.02 · n=804.50-2.44 · n=802.28-1.74 · n=803.44-3.38 · n=806.58-5.82 · n=803.61-3.61 · n=802.42-1.80 · n=802.03-1.25 · n=802.64-1.77 · n=801.90-0.64 · n=79
2026-083.56-2.70 · n=762.73-0.41 · n=763.70-3.29 · n=723.35-3.05 · n=763.72-1.75 · n=762.42-1.90 · n=762.76-2.01 · n=762.78-1.68 · n=767.10-6.96 · n=762.39-2.28 · n=763.31-3.06 · n=762.80-1.89 · n=762.64-1.21 · n=761.76-0.32 · n=763.85-0.50 · n=762.00-1.47 · n=763.04-2.66 · n=767.34-6.97 · n=764.07-4.02 · n=762.01-1.69 · n=762.31-0.79 · n=761.73-0.60 · n=761.91+0.48 · n=76
2026-073.38-2.58 · n=482.19-0.34 · n=483.44-3.03 · n=463.83-3.38 · n=483.89-2.52 · n=472.45-2.24 · n=483.07-2.32 · n=482.56-2.20 · n=486.75-6.75 · n=482.34-2.25 · n=483.24-2.42 · n=482.60-2.18 · n=482.39-1.41 · n=482.11-0.66 · n=483.49+1.87 · n=482.37-0.83 · n=483.51-3.22 · n=486.14-5.81 · n=483.20-3.20 · n=482.13-1.44 · n=482.79-2.00 · n=482.23-1.69 · n=481.76-0.42 · n=48
2026-062.94-2.84 · n=642.57-2.06 · n=643.49-3.05 · n=644.27-4.04 · n=645.09-2.93 · n=642.89-1.78 · n=644.53-4.26 · n=642.63-1.83 · n=645.68-5.68 · n=631.95-1.66 · n=632.92-2.37 · n=633.31-3.05 · n=641.94-1.46 · n=643.02-1.94 · n=643.06-0.82 · n=642.58-1.71 · n=644.08-3.81 · n=644.66-4.53 · n=643.44-3.42 · n=642.35-2.05 · n=642.37-2.21 · n=642.52-2.19 · n=642.33-1.37 · n=64
2026-053.37-3.22 · n=753.66-0.66 · n=743.64-3.12 · n=753.31-3.31 · n=753.57-2.48 · n=753.31-1.92 · n=745.01-4.97 · n=753.19-2.41 · n=755.05-5.02 · n=752.16-2.02 · n=752.49-2.19 · n=733.06-2.46 · n=762.73-0.99 · n=743.38-3.22 · n=762.57+0.01 · n=753.51-3.12 · n=753.68-3.59 · n=754.62-4.40 · n=753.44-3.44 · n=753.21-1.58 · n=762.49-1.20 · n=752.42-1.96 · n=752.28-1.14 · n=75
2026-043.64-3.49 · n=963.32-2.02 · n=963.24-2.71 · n=963.74-3.52 · n=963.18-1.13 · n=962.54-1.82 · n=953.87-3.59 · n=962.82-2.33 · n=964.31-4.25 · n=962.61-2.48 · n=961.55-1.20 · n=962.71-2.27 · n=962.13-1.38 · n=963.63-3.25 · n=962.37+0.47 · n=963.26-2.10 · n=963.83-3.16 · n=964.58-4.49 · n=963.21-2.99 · n=963.52-2.49 · n=962.55-2.09 · n=962.54-2.22 · n=962.73-0.67 · n=96
2026-033.49-3.19 · n=1244.24-2.67 · n=1242.98-2.57 · n=1203.68-3.05 · n=1244.33-2.79 · n=1243.27-2.35 · n=1244.08-3.85 · n=1242.86-2.30 · n=1243.43-3.25 · n=1242.63-1.59 · n=1241.68-0.99 · n=1244.11-3.49 · n=1242.65-1.40 · n=1244.03-3.76 · n=1243.30-0.72 · n=1243.68-2.74 · n=1243.72-3.06 · n=1244.32-4.20 · n=1243.36-2.74 · n=1233.87-3.21 · n=1241.96-0.85 · n=1243.45-2.39 · n=1242.76-1.10 · n=122
2026-023.04-2.70 · n=1114.32-0.62 · n=1123.12-2.32 · n=1123.50-2.22 · n=1124.09-2.95 · n=1122.90-1.41 · n=1113.53-3.01 · n=1102.85-1.74 · n=1122.55-2.04 · n=1122.42-1.81 · n=1121.47-0.02 · n=1113.46-2.60 · n=1122.54-0.47 · n=1123.53-2.80 · n=1122.99-0.12 · n=1113.06-2.31 · n=1123.43-2.88 · n=1123.46-3.30 · n=1122.93-1.68 · n=1123.60-2.46 · n=1122.19-1.54 · n=1122.13-0.89 · n=1122.37-0.41 · n=110
2026-012.33-1.87 · n=1203.25-0.64 · n=1202.11-1.39 · n=1182.75-1.71 · n=1194.16-3.20 · n=1202.53-1.01 · n=1202.74-2.34 · n=1202.47-1.17 · n=1201.88-1.22 · n=1202.37-1.25 · n=1201.66-0.34 · n=1203.23-2.43 · n=1202.37+0.18 · n=1202.62-1.87 · n=1192.83+1.15 · n=1202.27-0.80 · n=1203.00-2.29 · n=1203.86-3.78 · n=1202.81+0.27 · n=1203.17-1.79 · n=1202.34-1.38 · n=1201.89-0.70 · n=1202.23+0.38 · n=120

Source and licence

Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.

Where it comes from

aiwp · AURO · GFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.