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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Phoenix Sky Harbor · Aurora (GFS init) · lead day 1

KPHX · aurora_gfs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC14.58 [14.58, 14.58]0.00-14.58 [-14.58, -14.58]14.58 [14.58, 14.58]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.08—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC14.58 [14.58, 14.58]0.00-14.58 [-14.58, -14.58]14.58 [14.58, 14.58]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.08—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC14.58 [14.58, 14.58]0.00-14.58 [-14.58, -14.58]14.58 [14.58, 14.58]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.08—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall1 1 QC14.58 [14.58, 14.58]0.00-14.58 [-14.58, -14.58]14.58 [14.58, 14.58]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.08—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d1 1 QC14.30 [14.30, 14.30]0.00-14.30 [-14.30, -14.30]14.30 [14.30, 14.30]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.04—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d1 1 QC14.30 [14.30, 14.30]0.00-14.30 [-14.30, -14.30]14.30 [14.30, 14.30]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.04—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d1 1 QC14.30 [14.30, 14.30]0.00-14.30 [-14.30, -14.30]14.30 [14.30, 14.30]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.04—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall1 1 QC14.30 [14.30, 14.30]0.00-14.30 [-14.30, -14.30]14.30 [14.30, 14.30]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.04—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC13.30 [12.54, 14.07]0.77-13.30 [-14.07, -12.54]13.33 [12.54, 14.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.33+0.812026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC13.30 [12.54, 14.07]0.77-13.30 [-14.07, -12.54]13.33 [12.54, 14.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.33+0.812026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC13.30 [12.54, 14.07]0.77-13.30 [-14.07, -12.54]13.33 [12.54, 14.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.33+0.812026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC13.30 [12.54, 14.07]0.77-13.30 [-14.07, -12.54]13.33 [12.54, 14.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.33+0.812026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC13.00 [12.37, 13.63]0.63-13.00 [-13.63, -12.37]13.01 [12.37, 13.63]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.25+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC13.00 [12.37, 13.63]0.63-13.00 [-13.63, -12.37]13.01 [12.37, 13.63]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.25+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC13.00 [12.37, 13.63]0.63-13.00 [-13.63, -12.37]13.01 [12.37, 13.63]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.25+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC13.00 [12.37, 13.63]0.63-13.00 [-13.63, -12.37]13.01 [12.37, 13.63]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.25+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC6.82 [6.82, 6.82]0.00-6.82 [-6.82, -6.82]6.82 [6.82, 6.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.41—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC6.82 [6.82, 6.82]0.00-6.82 [-6.82, -6.82]6.82 [6.82, 6.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.41—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC6.82 [6.82, 6.82]0.00-6.82 [-6.82, -6.82]6.82 [6.82, 6.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.41—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall1 1 QC6.82 [6.82, 6.82]0.00-6.82 [-6.82, -6.82]6.82 [6.82, 6.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.41—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d1 1 QC6.50 [6.50, 6.50]0.00-6.50 [-6.50, -6.50]6.50 [6.50, 6.50]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.25—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d1 1 QC6.50 [6.50, 6.50]0.00-6.50 [-6.50, -6.50]6.50 [6.50, 6.50]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.25—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d1 1 QC6.50 [6.50, 6.50]0.00-6.50 [-6.50, -6.50]6.50 [6.50, 6.50]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.25—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall1 1 QC6.50 [6.50, 6.50]0.00-6.50 [-6.50, -6.50]6.50 [6.50, 6.50]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.25—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC5.90 [4.52, 7.28]1.38-5.90 [-7.28, -4.52]6.06 [4.52, 7.28]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.97-0.382026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC5.90 [4.52, 7.28]1.38-5.90 [-7.28, -4.52]6.06 [4.52, 7.28]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.97-0.382026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC5.90 [4.52, 7.28]1.38-5.90 [-7.28, -4.52]6.06 [4.52, 7.28]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.97-0.382026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC5.90 [4.52, 7.28]1.38-5.90 [-7.28, -4.52]6.06 [4.52, 7.28]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.97-0.382026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC5.38 [3.78, 6.98]1.60-5.38 [-6.98, -3.78]5.61 [3.78, 6.98]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.79-0.602026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC5.38 [3.78, 6.98]1.60-5.38 [-6.98, -3.78]5.61 [3.78, 6.98]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.79-0.602026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC5.38 [3.78, 6.98]1.60-5.38 [-6.98, -3.78]5.61 [3.78, 6.98]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.79-0.602026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC5.38 [3.78, 6.98]1.60-5.38 [-6.98, -3.78]5.61 [3.78, 6.98]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.79-0.602026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (GFS init) at KPHX, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-30: -14.58 °F2026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (1 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-14.58

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (GFS init) at KPHX, lead day 1-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 1 day-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 14.58 · P90 |e| 14.58 °F-200+20 °Fn = 1 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.001
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.000
-4.00-2.000
-2.00+0.000
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08114.58 -14.58

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (GFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (GFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (GFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 1 +5.73 [5.73, 5.73] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 +6.38 [6.38, 6.38] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +1.94 [1.94, 1.94] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +5.48 [5.48, 5.48] yes
NCEP GFS 1 +12.38 [12.38, 12.38] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 +0.68 [0.68, 0.68] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 1 +7.45 [7.45, 7.45] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 1 +9.60 [9.60, 9.60] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +7.16 [7.16, 7.16] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 +8.72 [8.72, 8.72] yes
Persistence (baseline) 1 +7.58 [7.58, 7.58] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHX aurora_gfs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/aurora_gfs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHX (Phoenix Sky Harbor), model aurora_gfs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/aurora_gfs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence