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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Phoenix Sky Harbor · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 1

KPHX · aurora_ifs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC8.35 [8.20, 8.51]0.15-8.35 [-8.51, -8.20]8.36 [8.20, 8.51]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.09+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC8.35 [8.20, 8.51]0.15-8.35 [-8.51, -8.20]8.36 [8.20, 8.51]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.09+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC8.35 [8.20, 8.51]0.15-8.35 [-8.51, -8.20]8.36 [8.20, 8.51]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.09+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall2 1 QC8.35 [8.20, 8.51]0.15-8.35 [-8.51, -8.20]8.36 [8.20, 8.51]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.09+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d2 1 QC7.92 [7.75, 8.09]0.17-7.92 [-8.09, -7.75]7.92 [7.75, 8.09]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.98+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d2 1 QC7.92 [7.75, 8.09]0.17-7.92 [-8.09, -7.75]7.92 [7.75, 8.09]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.98+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d2 1 QC7.92 [7.75, 8.09]0.17-7.92 [-8.09, -7.75]7.92 [7.75, 8.09]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.98+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall2 1 QC7.92 [7.75, 8.09]0.17-7.92 [-8.09, -7.75]7.92 [7.75, 8.09]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.98+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC7.75 [7.10, 8.40]0.65-7.75 [-8.40, -7.10]7.78 [7.10, 8.40]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.94+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC7.75 [7.10, 8.40]0.65-7.75 [-8.40, -7.10]7.78 [7.10, 8.40]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.94+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC7.75 [7.10, 8.40]0.65-7.75 [-8.40, -7.10]7.78 [7.10, 8.40]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.94+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC7.75 [7.10, 8.40]0.65-7.75 [-8.40, -7.10]7.78 [7.10, 8.40]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.94+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC7.37 [6.73, 8.01]0.64-7.37 [-8.01, -6.73]7.40 [6.73, 8.01]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.84+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC7.37 [6.73, 8.01]0.64-7.37 [-8.01, -6.73]7.40 [6.73, 8.01]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.84+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC7.37 [6.73, 8.01]0.64-7.37 [-8.01, -6.73]7.40 [6.73, 8.01]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.84+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC7.37 [6.73, 8.01]0.64-7.37 [-8.01, -6.73]7.40 [6.73, 8.01]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.84+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC2.58 [1.53, 3.63]1.05-2.58 [-3.63, -1.53]2.79 [1.53, 3.63]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.14-0.052026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC2.58 [1.53, 3.63]1.05-2.58 [-3.63, -1.53]2.79 [1.53, 3.63]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.14-0.052026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC2.58 [1.53, 3.63]1.05-2.58 [-3.63, -1.53]2.79 [1.53, 3.63]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.14-0.052026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall2 1 QC2.58 [1.53, 3.63]1.05-2.58 [-3.63, -1.53]2.79 [1.53, 3.63]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.14-0.052026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d2 1 QC2.15 [0.92, 3.38]1.23-2.15 [-3.38, -0.92]2.48 [0.92, 3.38]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.28-0.232026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d2 1 QC2.15 [0.92, 3.38]1.23-2.15 [-3.38, -0.92]2.48 [0.92, 3.38]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.28-0.232026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d2 1 QC2.15 [0.92, 3.38]1.23-2.15 [-3.38, -0.92]2.48 [0.92, 3.38]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.28-0.232026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall2 1 QC2.15 [0.92, 3.38]1.23-2.15 [-3.38, -0.92]2.48 [0.92, 3.38]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.28-0.232026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC2.65 [1.43, 3.86]1.22-2.65 [-3.86, -1.43]2.91 [1.43, 3.86]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.12-0.222026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC2.65 [1.43, 3.86]1.22-2.65 [-3.86, -1.43]2.91 [1.43, 3.86]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.12-0.222026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC2.65 [1.43, 3.86]1.22-2.65 [-3.86, -1.43]2.91 [1.43, 3.86]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.12-0.222026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC2.65 [1.43, 3.86]1.22-2.65 [-3.86, -1.43]2.91 [1.43, 3.86]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.12-0.222026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC2.23 [0.86, 3.61]1.38-2.23 [-3.61, -0.86]2.62 [0.86, 3.61]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.26-0.382026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC2.23 [0.86, 3.61]1.38-2.23 [-3.61, -0.86]2.62 [0.86, 3.61]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.26-0.382026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC2.23 [0.86, 3.61]1.38-2.23 [-3.61, -0.86]2.62 [0.86, 3.61]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.26-0.382026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC2.23 [0.86, 3.61]1.38-2.23 [-3.61, -0.86]2.62 [0.86, 3.61]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.26-0.382026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KPHX, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-29: -8.51 °F2026-08-30: -8.2 °F2026-08-292026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (2 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-8.20
2026-08-29-8.51

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KPHX, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 8.35 · P90 |e| 8.48 °F-100+10 °Fn = 2 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.002
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0828.35 -8.35

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 2 -0.67 [-0.70, -0.65] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -6.38 [-6.38, -6.38] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -4.44 [-4.44, -4.44] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -1.98 [-3.06, -0.89] yes
NCEP GFS 2 +2.89 [-0.22, 6.00] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -5.70 [-5.70, -5.70] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 2 -0.02 [-1.12, 1.07] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 2 +2.94 [2.66, 3.22] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.78 [0.78, 0.78] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +0.91 [-0.53, 2.35] no
Persistence (baseline) 2 +4.35 [1.20, 7.51] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHX aurora_ifs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/aurora_ifs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHX (Phoenix Sky Harbor), model aurora_ifs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHX/model/aurora_ifs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence