KMSY — New Orleans Intl
29.9928, -90.2508 · 1 m· standard offset UTC-6 h · truth product CLIMSY
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 4.01-3.84 · n=30 | 4.31-4.09 · n=29 | 4.33-4.33 · n=28 | 4.62-4.62 · n=27 | 4.71-4.71 · n=26 | 4.51-4.51 · n=25 | 4.99-4.99 · n=24 | 5.03-5.03 · n=23 | 5.08-4.95 · n=22 | 4.83-4.38 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 7.03-7.03 · n=2 | 7.22-7.22 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 6.66-6.66 · n=3 | 6.90-6.90 · n=2 | 3.91-3.91 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 4.07-4.07 · n=2 | 2.88-2.88 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 3.85-3.85 · n=3 | 3.18-3.18 · n=2 | 2.13-2.13 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 5.06-4.80 · n=30 | 4.69-4.41 · n=29 | 4.66-4.44 · n=28 | 3.78-3.78 · n=27 | 4.12-4.12 · n=26 | 3.38-2.97 · n=25 | 4.53-4.46 · n=24 | 4.14-3.62 · n=23 | 3.48-3.27 · n=22 | 4.48-4.41 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 5.57-5.57 · n=2 | 5.32-5.32 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 4.83-4.76 · n=28 | 5.07-4.99 · n=27 | 4.93-4.93 · n=26 | 5.22-5.22 · n=25 | 5.65-5.65 · n=25 | 5.25-5.25 · n=25 | 5.60-5.60 · n=24 | 5.38-5.38 · n=23 | 5.19-5.19 · n=22 | 5.15-4.76 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 4.30-4.30 · n=24 | 4.05-3.45 · n=23 | 4.47-4.47 · n=22 | 4.80-4.80 · n=22 | 4.99-4.99 · n=20 | 5.16-5.16 · n=18 | 4.64-4.64 · n=19 | 4.15-4.10 · n=18 | 3.96-3.96 · n=17 | 4.57-3.94 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 4.73-4.73 · n=2 | 5.45-5.45 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 4.27-4.27 · n=3 | 4.24-4.24 · n=2 | 2.77-2.77 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 1.96-0.04 · n=90 | 2.39-0.08 · n=90 | 2.61-0.12 · n=90 | 2.81-0.12 · n=90 | 2.89-0.20 · n=90 | 3.08-0.28 · n=90 | 3.17-0.39 · n=90 | 3.21-0.61 · n=90 | 3.22-0.80 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.77+2.61 · n=30 | 3.07+2.89 · n=29 | 3.26+2.94 · n=28 | 3.30+3.04 · n=27 | 3.40+3.13 · n=26 | 3.49+3.31 · n=25 | 3.50+3.33 · n=24 | 3.53+3.38 · n=23 | 3.56+3.05 · n=22 | 3.56+3.25 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 2.67-0.05 · n=2 | 3.19-3.19 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.78+0.02 · n=3 | 2.40-0.74 · n=2 | 3.66-3.66 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 2.24-1.15 · n=2 | 2.27-2.27 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 1.49-0.47 · n=3 | 1.82-0.50 · n=2 | 2.27-2.27 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.68+1.34 · n=30 | 1.80+1.40 · n=29 | 1.58+1.17 · n=28 | 1.70+1.00 · n=27 | 2.07+1.29 · n=26 | 2.17+1.45 · n=25 | 2.27+0.99 · n=24 | 1.96+0.96 · n=23 | 2.14+0.94 · n=22 | 2.11+0.86 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 2.51-0.22 · n=2 | 2.65-2.65 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 3.11+2.98 · n=28 | 3.06+2.82 · n=27 | 3.09+2.78 · n=26 | 3.01+2.93 · n=25 | 2.93+2.77 · n=25 | 2.94+2.60 · n=25 | 2.88+2.59 · n=24 | 2.87+2.42 · n=23 | 2.82+2.49 · n=22 | 2.92+2.38 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.49+3.38 · n=24 | 3.45+3.33 · n=23 | 3.44+3.29 · n=22 | 3.46+3.30 · n=22 | 3.26+2.98 · n=20 | 3.06+2.71 · n=18 | 3.35+2.91 · n=19 | 3.42+2.88 · n=18 | 3.56+2.97 · n=17 | 3.66+3.06 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.12-0.17 · n=2 | 2.75-2.75 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.63-0.14 · n=3 | 1.93-1.00 · n=2 | 3.66-3.66 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 1.44-0.07 · n=90 | 1.97-0.08 · n=90 | 2.11-0.11 · n=90 | 2.04-0.11 · n=90 | 1.99-0.12 · n=90 | 2.12-0.12 · n=90 | 2.06-0.21 · n=90 | 2.20-0.31 · n=90 | 2.30-0.37 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum — the seasonal slice behind the window averages. A model that is excellent in one season and poor in another shows up here and nowhere else.
| Month | aifs_single | aurora_gfs | aurora_ifs | fourcastnet_gfs | fourcastnet_ifs | gfs | graphcast_gfs | graphcast_ifs | ifs_hres | pangu_gfs | pangu_ifs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 4.31-4.09 · n=29 | 7.22-7.22 · n=1 | 6.90-6.90 · n=2 | 2.88-2.88 · n=1 | 3.18-3.18 · n=2 | 4.69-4.41 · n=29 | 5.32-5.32 · n=1 | 5.07-4.99 · n=27 | 4.05-3.45 · n=23 | 5.45-5.45 · n=1 | 4.24-4.24 · n=2 |
| 2026-01 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6.27-6.27 · n=6 | — | — | — |
Model availability at this station
| Model | Period | Scored days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| NCEP GFS | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 33 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 23 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 |
Observed truth — last 30 days
| Climatological day | Tmax °F | Tmin °F | Source | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 90 | 82 | OBS | obs_fallback |
| 2026-08-29 | 94 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-28 | 93 | 76 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-27 | 87 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-26 | 95 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-25 | 94 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-24 | 95 | 76 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-23 | 97 | 80 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-22 | 96 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-21 | 97 | 76 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-20 | 96 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-19 | 96 | 79 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-18 | 96 | 79 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-17 | 95 | 79 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-16 | 96 | 79 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-15 | 96 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-14 | 95 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-13 | 96 | 79 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-12 | 93 | 78 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-11 | 94 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-10 | 93 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-09 | 90 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-08 | 91 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-07 | 91 | 76 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-06 | 92 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-05 | 95 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-04 | 94 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-03 | 93 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-02 | 84 | 76 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-01 | 96 | 78 | CLI |
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences