Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KMSY · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC4.64 [3.56, 5.51]1.94-4.64 [-5.51, -3.56]5.22 [3.93, 6.10]5% [0%, 13%]16%21%-0.57+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC4.64 [3.11, 5.69]1.94-4.64 [-5.69, -3.11]5.22 [3.59, 6.31]5% [0%, 12%]16%21%-0.57+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC4.64 [3.02, 5.75]1.94-4.64 [-5.75, -3.02]5.22 [3.39, 6.28]5% [0%, 14%]16%21%-0.57+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 1 QC4.64 [3.12, 5.77]1.94-4.64 [-5.77, -3.12]5.22 [3.60, 6.28]5% [0%, 14%]16%21%-0.57+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 1 QC4.58 [3.51, 5.44]1.94-4.58 [-5.44, -3.51]5.17 [3.90, 6.05]5% [0%, 13%]16%21%-0.55+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 1 QC4.58 [3.06, 5.63]1.94-4.58 [-5.63, -3.06]5.17 [3.54, 6.25]5% [0%, 12%]16%21%-0.55+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 1 QC4.58 [2.96, 5.69]1.94-4.58 [-5.69, -2.96]5.17 [3.34, 6.23]5% [0%, 14%]16%21%-0.55+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 1 QC4.58 [3.07, 5.71]1.94-4.58 [-5.71, -3.07]5.17 [3.56, 6.23]5% [0%, 14%]16%21%-0.55+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC5.05 [3.63, 6.19]2.33-5.05 [-6.19, -3.63]5.91 [3.99, 7.01]0% [0%, 0%]16%21%-0.71+0.222026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC5.05 [3.23, 6.44]2.33-5.05 [-6.44, -3.23]5.91 [3.65, 7.18]0% [0%, 0%]16%21%-0.71+0.222026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC5.05 [2.86, 6.41]2.33-5.05 [-6.41, -2.86]5.91 [3.49, 7.26]0% [0%, 0%]16%21%-0.71+0.222026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 1 QC5.05 [3.12, 6.34]2.33-5.05 [-6.34, -3.12]5.91 [3.64, 7.12]0% [0%, 0%]16%21%-0.71+0.222026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 1 QC5.01 [3.58, 6.16]2.35-5.01 [-6.16, -3.58]5.89 [3.95, 6.99]0% [0%, 0%]16%21%-0.70+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 1 QC5.01 [3.19, 6.42]2.35-5.01 [-6.42, -3.19]5.89 [3.62, 7.17]0% [0%, 0%]16%21%-0.70+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 1 QC5.01 [2.81, 6.38]2.35-5.01 [-6.38, -2.81]5.89 [3.44, 7.23]0% [0%, 0%]16%21%-0.70+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 1 QC5.01 [3.08, 6.32]2.35-5.01 [-6.32, -3.08]5.89 [3.61, 7.11]0% [0%, 0%]16%21%-0.70+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.35 [2.64, 4.11]2.27+2.91 [1.43, 3.94]3.95 [3.20, 4.63]11% [0%, 22%]37%47%-0.38+0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.35 [2.52, 4.36]2.27+2.91 [1.06, 4.31]3.95 [3.04, 4.84]11% [0%, 25%]37%47%-0.38+0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.35 [2.48, 4.46]2.27+2.91 [1.08, 4.43]3.95 [3.02, 4.88]11% [0%, 25%]37%47%-0.38+0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.35 [2.48, 4.44]2.27+2.91 [0.71, 4.35]3.95 [3.04, 4.88]11% [0%, 25%]37%47%-0.38+0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 1 QC3.33 [2.64, 4.09]2.27+2.88 [1.41, 3.91]3.92 [3.19, 4.61]11% [0%, 22%]37%47%-0.38+0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 1 QC3.33 [2.53, 4.33]2.27+2.88 [1.03, 4.27]3.92 [3.02, 4.82]11% [0%, 25%]37%47%-0.38+0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 1 QC3.33 [2.47, 4.43]2.27+2.88 [1.05, 4.39]3.92 [3.03, 4.89]11% [0%, 25%]37%47%-0.38+0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 1 QC3.33 [2.48, 4.43]2.27+2.88 [0.69, 4.30]3.92 [3.03, 4.89]11% [0%, 25%]37%47%-0.38+0.072026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.30 [2.56, 3.99]1.76+3.11 [1.88, 3.94]3.74 [3.17, 4.29]16% [0%, 35%]32%37%-0.36+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.30 [2.44, 4.25]1.76+3.11 [1.55, 4.20]3.74 [3.08, 4.48]16% [0%, 40%]32%37%-0.36+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.30 [2.32, 4.25]1.76+3.11 [1.67, 4.25]3.74 [2.97, 4.51]16% [0%, 38%]32%37%-0.36+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.30 [2.43, 4.20]1.76+3.11 [1.30, 4.20]3.74 [3.00, 4.46]16% [0%, 39%]32%37%-0.36+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 1 QC3.28 [2.55, 3.96]1.77+3.08 [1.85, 3.91]3.71 [3.16, 4.26]16% [0%, 35%]32%37%-0.35+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 1 QC3.28 [2.43, 4.22]1.77+3.08 [1.51, 4.18]3.71 [3.09, 4.46]16% [0%, 40%]32%37%-0.35+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 1 QC3.28 [2.32, 4.21]1.77+3.08 [1.63, 4.21]3.71 [2.96, 4.48]16% [0%, 38%]32%37%-0.35+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 1 QC3.28 [2.43, 4.17]1.77+3.08 [1.26, 4.16]3.71 [2.99, 4.43]16% [0%, 39%]32%37%-0.35+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: -1.2 °F2026-08-13: -5.59 °F2026-08-14: -3.09 °F2026-08-15: -4.39 °F2026-08-16: -5.15 °F2026-08-17: -1.2 °F2026-08-18: -4.52 °F2026-08-19: -3.55 °F2026-08-20: -3.28 °F2026-08-21: -7.24 °F2026-08-22: -6.13 °F2026-08-23: -7.67 °F2026-08-24: -0.18 °F2026-08-25: -4.35 °F2026-08-26: -6.52 °F2026-08-27: -2.22 °F2026-08-28: -7.62 °F2026-08-29: -9.4 °F2026-08-30: -4.85 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.85
2026-08-29-9.40
2026-08-28-7.62
2026-08-27-2.22
2026-08-26-6.52
2026-08-25-4.35
2026-08-24-0.18
2026-08-23-7.67
2026-08-22-6.13
2026-08-21-7.24
2026-08-20-3.28
2026-08-19-3.55
2026-08-18-4.52
2026-08-17-1.20
2026-08-16-5.15
2026-08-15-4.39
2026-08-14-3.09
2026-08-13-5.59
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07-1.20

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 3 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.52 · P90 |e| 7.63 °F-100+10 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.003
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08194.64 -4.64

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 +0.15 [-1.58, 1.30] no
NCEP GFS 19 -0.30 [-3.41, 1.07] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -0.81 [-2.78, 0.26] no
Persistence (baseline) 19 +1.69 [-1.75, 3.10] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence