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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 6

KMSY · aifs_single · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC4.99 [4.33, 5.89]1.17-4.99 [-5.89, -4.33]5.23 [4.46, 6.20]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.74+0.592026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC4.99 [4.33, 6.18]1.17-4.99 [-6.18, -4.33]5.23 [4.45, 6.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.74+0.592026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC4.99 [4.30, 6.21]1.17-4.99 [-6.21, -4.30]5.23 [4.45, 6.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.74+0.592026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC4.99 [4.29, 6.16]1.17-4.99 [-6.16, -4.29]5.23 [4.38, 6.44]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.74+0.592026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC4.99 [4.33, 5.89]1.17-4.99 [-5.89, -4.33]5.23 [4.46, 6.20]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.74+0.592026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC4.99 [4.33, 6.18]1.17-4.99 [-6.18, -4.33]5.23 [4.45, 6.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.74+0.592026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC4.99 [4.29, 6.21]1.17-4.99 [-6.21, -4.29]5.23 [4.45, 6.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.74+0.592026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC4.99 [4.29, 6.16]1.17-4.99 [-6.16, -4.29]5.23 [4.38, 6.44]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.74+0.592026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC5.23 [4.77, 5.73]1.01-5.23 [-5.73, -4.77]5.39 [4.86, 5.92]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.82+0.652026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC5.23 [4.81, 5.81]1.01-5.23 [-5.81, -4.81]5.39 [4.90, 5.99]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.82+0.652026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC5.23 [4.71, 5.78]1.01-5.23 [-5.78, -4.71]5.39 [4.80, 5.95]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.82+0.652026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC5.23 [4.69, 5.78]1.01-5.23 [-5.78, -4.69]5.39 [4.79, 5.98]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.82+0.652026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC5.24 [4.77, 5.73]1.01-5.24 [-5.73, -4.77]5.40 [4.86, 5.92]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.82+0.652026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC5.24 [4.81, 5.81]1.01-5.24 [-5.81, -4.81]5.40 [4.90, 5.99]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.82+0.652026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC5.24 [4.71, 5.78]1.01-5.24 [-5.78, -4.71]5.40 [4.80, 5.96]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.82+0.652026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC5.24 [4.70, 5.79]1.01-5.24 [-5.79, -4.70]5.40 [4.80, 5.98]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.82+0.652026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.50 [2.63, 4.41]1.82+3.33 [2.22, 4.29]4.04 [2.96, 5.00]12% [4%, 21%]25%46%-0.68+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.50 [2.43, 4.44]1.82+3.33 [2.00, 4.33]4.04 [2.70, 5.05]12% [0%, 22%]25%46%-0.68+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.50 [2.45, 4.60]1.82+3.33 [1.94, 4.56]4.04 [2.73, 5.17]12% [0%, 25%]25%46%-0.68+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.50 [2.41, 4.76]1.82+3.33 [1.83, 4.60]4.04 [2.68, 5.29]12% [0%, 22%]25%46%-0.68+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC3.51 [2.64, 4.42]1.82+3.34 [2.23, 4.30]4.05 [2.97, 5.01]12% [4%, 21%]25%46%-0.68+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC3.51 [2.43, 4.45]1.82+3.34 [2.01, 4.34]4.05 [2.71, 5.06]12% [0%, 22%]25%46%-0.68+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC3.51 [2.46, 4.61]1.82+3.34 [1.95, 4.57]4.05 [2.73, 5.18]12% [0%, 25%]25%46%-0.68+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC3.51 [2.41, 4.78]1.82+3.34 [1.84, 4.62]4.05 [2.69, 5.30]12% [0%, 22%]25%46%-0.68+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.25 [2.51, 4.04]1.70+3.05 [2.00, 3.90]3.72 [2.75, 4.57]4% [0%, 11%]29%58%-0.56+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.25 [2.29, 4.07]1.70+3.05 [1.79, 3.96]3.72 [2.45, 4.58]4% [0%, 12%]29%58%-0.56+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.25 [2.33, 4.17]1.70+3.05 [1.72, 4.15]3.72 [2.44, 4.71]4% [0%, 14%]29%58%-0.56+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.25 [2.32, 4.29]1.70+3.05 [1.58, 4.16]3.72 [2.42, 4.80]4% [0%, 14%]29%58%-0.56+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC3.25 [2.51, 4.04]1.70+3.06 [2.00, 3.91]3.72 [2.75, 4.57]4% [0%, 11%]29%54%-0.56+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC3.25 [2.30, 4.08]1.70+3.06 [1.80, 3.96]3.72 [2.46, 4.58]4% [0%, 12%]29%54%-0.56+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC3.25 [2.33, 4.17]1.70+3.06 [1.73, 4.16]3.72 [2.44, 4.72]4% [0%, 14%]29%54%-0.56+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC3.25 [2.32, 4.30]1.70+3.06 [1.58, 4.16]3.72 [2.42, 4.80]4% [0%, 14%]29%54%-0.56+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: -4.85 °F2026-08-08: -8.08 °F2026-08-09: -6.07 °F2026-08-10: -9.33 °F2026-08-11: -6.96 °F2026-08-12: -4.04 °F2026-08-13: -4.72 °F2026-08-14: -4.04 °F2026-08-15: -4.9 °F2026-08-16: -4.56 °F2026-08-17: -5.12 °F2026-08-18: -3.78 °F2026-08-19: -3.94 °F2026-08-20: -4.72 °F2026-08-21: -5.66 °F2026-08-22: -4.12 °F2026-08-23: -4.27 °F2026-08-24: -7.08 °F2026-08-25: -2.19 °F2026-08-26: -4.19 °F2026-08-27: -3.4 °F2026-08-28: -4.83 °F2026-08-29: -5.63 °F2026-08-30: -3.34 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.34
2026-08-29-5.63
2026-08-28-4.83
2026-08-27-3.40
2026-08-26-4.19
2026-08-25-2.19
2026-08-24-7.08
2026-08-23-4.27
2026-08-22-4.12
2026-08-21-5.66
2026-08-20-4.72
2026-08-19-3.94
2026-08-18-3.78
2026-08-17-5.12
2026-08-16-4.56
2026-08-15-4.90
2026-08-14-4.04
2026-08-13-4.72
2026-08-12-4.04
2026-08-11-6.96
2026-08-10-9.33
2026-08-09-6.07
2026-08-08-8.08
2026-08-07-4.85

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 11 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.72 · P90 |e| 7.04 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.0011
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08244.99 -4.99

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 24 +0.46 [-0.57, 1.78] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 24 -0.61 [-1.21, 0.21] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 19 -0.15 [-1.30, 1.58] no
Persistence (baseline) 24 +2.12 [0.47, 3.29] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY aifs_single lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence