KMSY — New Orleans Intl
29.9928, -90.2508 · 1 m· standard offset UTC-6 h · truth product CLIMSY
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 4.01-3.84 · n=30 | 4.31-4.09 · n=29 | 4.33-4.33 · n=28 | 4.62-4.62 · n=27 | 4.71-4.71 · n=26 | 4.51-4.51 · n=25 | 4.99-4.99 · n=24 | 5.03-5.03 · n=23 | 5.08-4.95 · n=22 | 4.83-4.38 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 7.03-7.03 · n=2 | 7.22-7.22 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 6.66-6.66 · n=3 | 6.90-6.90 · n=2 | 3.91-3.91 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 4.07-4.07 · n=2 | 2.88-2.88 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 3.85-3.85 · n=3 | 3.18-3.18 · n=2 | 2.13-2.13 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 5.06-4.80 · n=30 | 4.69-4.41 · n=29 | 4.66-4.44 · n=28 | 3.78-3.78 · n=27 | 4.12-4.12 · n=26 | 3.38-2.97 · n=25 | 4.53-4.46 · n=24 | 4.14-3.62 · n=23 | 3.48-3.27 · n=22 | 4.48-4.41 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 5.57-5.57 · n=2 | 5.32-5.32 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 4.95-4.89 · n=34 | 5.29-5.22 · n=33 | 5.13-5.13 · n=32 | 5.30-5.30 · n=31 | 5.79-5.79 · n=31 | 5.54-5.54 · n=31 | 5.78-5.73 · n=30 | 5.71-5.71 · n=29 | 5.02-5.02 · n=28 | 5.21-4.07 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 4.30-4.30 · n=24 | 4.05-3.45 · n=23 | 4.47-4.47 · n=22 | 4.80-4.80 · n=22 | 4.99-4.99 · n=20 | 5.16-5.16 · n=18 | 4.64-4.64 · n=19 | 4.15-4.10 · n=18 | 3.96-3.96 · n=17 | 4.57-3.94 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 4.73-4.73 · n=2 | 5.45-5.45 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 4.27-4.27 · n=3 | 4.24-4.24 · n=2 | 2.77-2.77 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.21-0.00 · n=365 | 5.62-0.03 · n=365 | 5.99-0.03 · n=365 | 6.36-0.02 · n=365 | 6.48-0.02 · n=365 | 6.70-0.02 · n=365 | 6.97-0.02 · n=365 | 6.85-0.03 · n=365 | 7.05-0.05 · n=365 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.77+2.61 · n=30 | 3.07+2.89 · n=29 | 3.26+2.94 · n=28 | 3.30+3.04 · n=27 | 3.40+3.13 · n=26 | 3.49+3.31 · n=25 | 3.50+3.33 · n=24 | 3.53+3.38 · n=23 | 3.56+3.05 · n=22 | 3.56+3.25 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 2.67-0.05 · n=2 | 3.19-3.19 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.78+0.02 · n=3 | 2.40-0.74 · n=2 | 3.66-3.66 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 2.24-1.15 · n=2 | 2.27-2.27 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 1.49-0.47 · n=3 | 1.82-0.50 · n=2 | 2.27-2.27 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.68+1.34 · n=30 | 1.80+1.40 · n=29 | 1.58+1.17 · n=28 | 1.70+1.00 · n=27 | 2.07+1.29 · n=26 | 2.17+1.45 · n=25 | 2.27+0.99 · n=24 | 1.96+0.96 · n=23 | 2.14+0.94 · n=22 | 2.11+0.86 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 2.51-0.22 · n=2 | 2.65-2.65 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 3.26+3.12 · n=34 | 3.04+2.76 · n=33 | 3.12+2.72 · n=32 | 2.77+2.48 · n=31 | 2.94+2.59 · n=31 | 2.78+2.09 · n=31 | 2.97+2.19 · n=30 | 3.14+2.13 · n=29 | 2.69+1.91 · n=28 | 3.48+2.97 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.49+3.38 · n=24 | 3.45+3.33 · n=23 | 3.44+3.29 · n=22 | 3.46+3.30 · n=22 | 3.26+2.98 · n=20 | 3.06+2.71 · n=18 | 3.35+2.91 · n=19 | 3.42+2.88 · n=18 | 3.56+2.97 · n=17 | 3.66+3.06 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.12-0.17 · n=2 | 2.75-2.75 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.63-0.14 · n=3 | 1.93-1.00 · n=2 | 3.66-3.66 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 3.78-0.02 · n=365 | 5.53-0.02 · n=365 | 6.43-0.02 · n=365 | 6.79-0.01 · n=365 | 7.15+0.00 · n=365 | 7.28+0.01 · n=365 | 7.50+0.01 · n=365 | 7.85-0.00 · n=365 | 7.90+0.01 · n=365 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences