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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KMSY · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.47 [3.23, 5.61]1.62-4.47 [-5.61, -3.23]4.98 [3.51, 6.14]0% [0%, 0%]9%27%-1.46+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.47 [2.77, 5.85]1.62-4.47 [-5.85, -2.77]4.98 [3.00, 6.30]0% [0%, 0%]9%27%-1.46+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.47 [2.75, 6.14]1.62-4.47 [-6.14, -2.75]4.98 [3.02, 6.46]0% [0%, 0%]9%27%-1.46+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.47 [2.74, 5.83]1.62-4.47 [-5.83, -2.74]4.98 [3.08, 6.33]0% [0%, 0%]9%27%-1.46+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC4.44 [3.18, 5.60]1.64-4.44 [-5.60, -3.18]4.96 [3.46, 6.14]0% [0%, 0%]14%27%-1.44+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC4.44 [2.72, 5.85]1.64-4.44 [-5.85, -2.72]4.96 [2.94, 6.30]0% [0%, 0%]14%27%-1.44+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC4.44 [2.70, 6.14]1.64-4.44 [-6.14, -2.70]4.96 [2.97, 6.47]0% [0%, 0%]14%27%-1.44+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC4.44 [2.71, 5.81]1.64-4.44 [-5.81, -2.71]4.96 [3.02, 6.33]0% [0%, 0%]14%27%-1.44+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.71 [3.55, 5.98]1.87-4.71 [-5.98, -3.55]5.28 [3.96, 6.44]0% [0%, 0%]9%36%-1.53+0.012026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.71 [3.43, 6.25]1.87-4.71 [-6.25, -3.43]5.28 [3.84, 6.59]0% [0%, 0%]9%36%-1.53+0.012026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.71 [3.21, 6.39]1.87-4.71 [-6.39, -3.21]5.28 [3.56, 6.74]0% [0%, 0%]9%36%-1.53+0.012026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.71 [3.34, 6.34]1.87-4.71 [-6.34, -3.34]5.28 [3.60, 6.67]0% [0%, 0%]9%36%-1.53+0.012026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC4.67 [3.49, 5.97]1.88-4.67 [-5.97, -3.49]5.25 [3.91, 6.42]5% [0%, 12%]14%36%-1.51-0.002026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC4.67 [3.36, 6.23]1.88-4.67 [-6.23, -3.36]5.25 [3.79, 6.60]5% [0%, 12%]14%36%-1.51-0.002026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC4.67 [3.14, 6.38]1.88-4.67 [-6.38, -3.14]5.25 [3.50, 6.73]5% [0%, 13%]14%36%-1.51-0.002026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC4.67 [3.28, 6.34]1.88-4.67 [-6.34, -3.28]5.25 [3.57, 6.65]5% [0%, 12%]14%36%-1.51-0.002026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.44 [2.73, 4.19]1.65+3.29 [2.35, 4.13]3.86 [3.10, 4.53]5% [0%, 14%]23%45%-0.46+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.44 [2.53, 4.26]1.65+3.29 [1.97, 4.23]3.86 [2.99, 4.58]5% [0%, 17%]23%45%-0.46+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.44 [2.54, 4.31]1.65+3.29 [1.94, 4.31]3.86 [2.94, 4.62]5% [0%, 17%]23%45%-0.46+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.44 [2.55, 4.37]1.65+3.29 [1.79, 4.37]3.86 [2.97, 4.71]5% [0%, 17%]23%45%-0.46+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.42 [2.71, 4.16]1.64+3.27 [2.32, 4.10]3.84 [3.08, 4.50]5% [0%, 14%]23%45%-0.45+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.42 [2.49, 4.22]1.64+3.27 [1.95, 4.19]3.84 [2.96, 4.54]5% [0%, 17%]23%45%-0.45+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.42 [2.51, 4.26]1.64+3.27 [1.92, 4.26]3.84 [2.93, 4.59]5% [0%, 17%]23%45%-0.45+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC3.42 [2.53, 4.35]1.64+3.27 [1.78, 4.35]3.84 [2.95, 4.69]5% [0%, 17%]23%45%-0.45+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.22 [2.64, 3.91]1.67+2.85 [1.93, 3.74]3.61 [2.86, 4.30]5% [0%, 12%]23%50%-0.36+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.22 [2.59, 4.15]1.67+2.85 [1.57, 4.10]3.61 [2.78, 4.53]5% [0%, 12%]23%50%-0.36+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.22 [2.51, 4.18]1.67+2.85 [1.48, 4.15]3.61 [2.70, 4.53]5% [0%, 12%]23%50%-0.36+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.22 [2.57, 4.22]1.67+2.85 [1.48, 4.20]3.61 [2.76, 4.61]5% [0%, 12%]23%50%-0.36+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.19 [2.62, 3.88]1.66+2.82 [1.90, 3.71]3.59 [2.83, 4.28]5% [0%, 12%]23%50%-0.35+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.19 [2.56, 4.12]1.66+2.82 [1.55, 4.08]3.59 [2.76, 4.51]5% [0%, 12%]23%50%-0.35+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.19 [2.50, 4.15]1.66+2.82 [1.46, 4.13]3.59 [2.68, 4.51]5% [0%, 12%]23%50%-0.35+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC3.19 [2.55, 4.19]1.66+2.82 [1.44, 4.17]3.59 [2.74, 4.59]5% [0%, 12%]23%50%-0.35+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-03: -2.02 °F2026-08-08: -2.38 °F2026-08-09: -1.02 °F2026-08-11: -4.06 °F2026-08-13: -4.99 °F2026-08-14: -4.21 °F2026-08-15: -5.13 °F2026-08-16: -4.96 °F2026-08-17: -1.84 °F2026-08-18: -3.76 °F2026-08-19: -3.15 °F2026-08-20: -3.99 °F2026-08-21: -4.56 °F2026-08-22: -2.64 °F2026-08-23: -2.41 °F2026-08-24: -6.51 °F2026-08-25: -10.62 °F2026-08-26: -4.32 °F2026-08-27: -4.92 °F2026-08-28: -8.24 °F2026-08-29: -7.23 °F2026-08-30: -5.37 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.37
2026-08-29-7.23
2026-08-28-8.24
2026-08-27-4.92
2026-08-26-4.32
2026-08-25-10.62
2026-08-24-6.51
2026-08-23-2.41
2026-08-22-2.64
2026-08-21-4.56
2026-08-20-3.99
2026-08-19-3.15
2026-08-18-3.76
2026-08-17-1.84
2026-08-16-4.96
2026-08-15-5.13
2026-08-14-4.21
2026-08-13-4.99
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11-4.06
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-1.02
2026-08-08-2.38
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03-2.02

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 2-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -4 °F: 9 days-4 to -2 °F: 7 days-2 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.27 · P90 |e| 7.16 °F-200+20 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.002
-6.00-4.009
-4.00-2.007
-2.00+0.002
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08224.47 -4.47

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +0.26 [-1.02, 1.44] no
Aurora (IFS init) 1 +1.46 [1.46, 1.46] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +3.24 [3.24, 3.24] yes
NCEP GFS 22 -0.39 [-1.18, 0.52] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -0.42 [-1.68, 0.74] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 +2.60 [2.60, 2.60] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +2.65 [0.60, 3.45] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence