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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 2

KMSY · aifs_single · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC4.33 [4.03, 4.62]0.87-4.33 [-4.62, -4.03]4.47 [4.18, 4.75]0% [0%, 0%]4%11%-1.02+0.602026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC4.33 [4.00, 4.65]0.87-4.33 [-4.65, -4.00]4.47 [4.13, 4.78]0% [0%, 0%]4%11%-1.02+0.602026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC4.33 [3.96, 4.68]0.87-4.33 [-4.68, -3.96]4.47 [4.08, 4.80]0% [0%, 0%]4%11%-1.02+0.602026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall28 1 QC4.33 [3.96, 4.68]0.87-4.33 [-4.68, -3.96]4.47 [4.10, 4.80]0% [0%, 0%]4%11%-1.02+0.602026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d28 1 QC4.33 [4.03, 4.62]0.87-4.33 [-4.62, -4.03]4.47 [4.18, 4.74]0% [0%, 0%]4%11%-1.02+0.602026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d28 1 QC4.33 [4.00, 4.65]0.87-4.33 [-4.65, -4.00]4.47 [4.13, 4.78]0% [0%, 0%]4%11%-1.02+0.602026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d28 1 QC4.33 [3.96, 4.67]0.87-4.33 [-4.67, -3.96]4.47 [4.08, 4.79]0% [0%, 0%]4%11%-1.02+0.602026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall28 1 QC4.33 [3.96, 4.68]0.87-4.33 [-4.68, -3.96]4.47 [4.10, 4.79]0% [0%, 0%]4%11%-1.02+0.602026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC4.77 [4.45, 5.07]0.94-4.77 [-5.07, -4.45]4.92 [4.61, 5.21]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.23+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC4.77 [4.43, 5.11]0.94-4.77 [-5.11, -4.43]4.92 [4.59, 5.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.23+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC4.77 [4.36, 5.13]0.94-4.77 [-5.13, -4.36]4.92 [4.50, 5.25]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.23+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall28 1 QC4.77 [4.39, 5.14]0.94-4.77 [-5.14, -4.39]4.92 [4.52, 5.27]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.23+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d28 1 QC4.78 [4.46, 5.08]0.94-4.78 [-5.08, -4.46]4.92 [4.62, 5.21]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.23+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d28 1 QC4.78 [4.44, 5.11]0.94-4.78 [-5.11, -4.44]4.92 [4.59, 5.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.23+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d28 1 QC4.78 [4.37, 5.13]0.94-4.78 [-5.13, -4.37]4.92 [4.51, 5.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.23+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall28 1 QC4.78 [4.39, 5.14]0.94-4.78 [-5.14, -4.39]4.92 [4.53, 5.27]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.23+0.572026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC3.26 [2.78, 3.86]1.41+2.94 [2.28, 3.49]3.53 [2.92, 4.16]4% [0%, 12%]14%50%-0.55+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC3.26 [2.62, 3.89]1.41+2.94 [1.95, 3.54]3.53 [2.76, 4.16]4% [0%, 13%]14%50%-0.55+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC3.26 [2.66, 3.95]1.41+2.94 [1.91, 3.61]3.53 [2.82, 4.26]4% [0%, 14%]14%50%-0.55+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall28 1 QC3.26 [2.65, 3.95]1.41+2.94 [1.85, 3.59]3.53 [2.78, 4.25]4% [0%, 13%]14%50%-0.55+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d28 1 QC3.27 [2.78, 3.87]1.41+2.95 [2.29, 3.51]3.54 [2.93, 4.17]4% [0%, 12%]11%50%-0.55+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d28 1 QC3.27 [2.63, 3.90]1.41+2.95 [1.96, 3.55]3.54 [2.77, 4.17]4% [0%, 13%]11%50%-0.55+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d28 1 QC3.27 [2.66, 3.96]1.41+2.95 [1.92, 3.62]3.54 [2.83, 4.27]4% [0%, 14%]11%50%-0.55+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall28 1 QC3.27 [2.65, 3.96]1.41+2.95 [1.86, 3.60]3.54 [2.79, 4.26]4% [0%, 13%]11%50%-0.55+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC2.70 [2.27, 3.21]1.37+2.43 [1.73, 3.03]3.01 [2.47, 3.58]11% [0%, 25%]39%57%-0.28+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC2.70 [2.13, 3.21]1.37+2.43 [1.47, 3.01]3.01 [2.28, 3.58]11% [0%, 30%]39%57%-0.28+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC2.70 [2.18, 3.25]1.37+2.43 [1.39, 3.08]3.01 [2.34, 3.63]11% [0%, 33%]39%57%-0.28+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall28 1 QC2.70 [2.14, 3.29]1.37+2.43 [1.36, 3.09]3.01 [2.28, 3.64]11% [0%, 29%]39%57%-0.28+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d28 1 QC2.70 [2.27, 3.21]1.37+2.43 [1.73, 3.03]3.01 [2.48, 3.58]11% [0%, 25%]39%57%-0.28+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d28 1 QC2.70 [2.13, 3.21]1.37+2.43 [1.48, 3.01]3.01 [2.28, 3.58]11% [0%, 30%]39%57%-0.28+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d28 1 QC2.70 [2.18, 3.25]1.37+2.43 [1.40, 3.08]3.01 [2.34, 3.63]11% [0%, 33%]39%57%-0.28+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall28 1 QC2.70 [2.14, 3.30]1.37+2.43 [1.36, 3.09]3.01 [2.29, 3.64]11% [0%, 29%]39%57%-0.28+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -3.86 °F2026-08-04: -4.62 °F2026-08-05: -5.55 °F2026-08-06: -5.06 °F2026-08-07: -3 °F2026-08-08: -3.42 °F2026-08-09: -1.51 °F2026-08-10: -5.94 °F2026-08-11: -3.71 °F2026-08-12: -4.23 °F2026-08-13: -4.35 °F2026-08-14: -3.74 °F2026-08-15: -4.2 °F2026-08-16: -4.52 °F2026-08-17: -2.69 °F2026-08-18: -4.11 °F2026-08-19: -4.97 °F2026-08-20: -5.95 °F2026-08-21: -6.36 °F2026-08-22: -3.95 °F2026-08-23: -4.15 °F2026-08-24: -3.02 °F2026-08-25: -5.35 °F2026-08-26: -4.38 °F2026-08-27: -4.06 °F2026-08-28: -6.16 °F2026-08-29: -5.21 °F2026-08-30: -3.07 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.07
2026-08-29-5.21
2026-08-28-6.16
2026-08-27-4.06
2026-08-26-4.38
2026-08-25-5.35
2026-08-24-3.02
2026-08-23-4.15
2026-08-22-3.95
2026-08-21-6.36
2026-08-20-5.95
2026-08-19-4.97
2026-08-18-4.11
2026-08-17-2.69
2026-08-16-4.52
2026-08-15-4.20
2026-08-14-3.74
2026-08-13-4.35
2026-08-12-4.23
2026-08-11-3.71
2026-08-10-5.94
2026-08-09-1.51
2026-08-08-3.42
2026-08-07-3.00
2026-08-06-5.06
2026-08-05-5.55
2026-08-04-4.62
2026-08-03-3.86

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 6 days-5 to -4 °F: 10 days-4 to -3 °F: 7 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.22 · P90 |e| 5.94 °F-100+10 °Fn = 28 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.006
-5.00-4.0010
-4.00-3.007
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08284.33 -4.33

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -0.84 [-0.84, -0.84] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +0.94 [0.94, 0.94] yes
NCEP GFS 28 -0.33 [-1.36, 0.48] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 26 -0.71 [-1.21, -0.19] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 -0.26 [-1.44, 1.02] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 +0.30 [0.30, 0.30] yes
Persistence (baseline) 28 +2.18 [0.52, 3.49] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY aifs_single lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence