Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · NCEP GFS · lead day 2

KMSY · gfs · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC4.66 [3.74, 5.77]2.02-4.44 [-5.40, -3.66]5.12 [4.12, 6.10]0% [0%, 0%]11%18%-1.17+0.082026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC4.66 [3.62, 5.91]2.02-4.44 [-5.42, -3.60]5.12 [3.97, 6.27]0% [0%, 0%]11%18%-1.17+0.082026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC4.66 [3.55, 6.06]2.02-4.44 [-5.50, -3.54]5.12 [3.93, 6.43]0% [0%, 0%]11%18%-1.17+0.082026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall28 1 QC4.66 [3.54, 5.97]2.02-4.44 [-5.55, -3.54]5.12 [3.93, 6.32]0% [0%, 0%]11%18%-1.17+0.082026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d28 1 QC4.79 [3.88, 5.91]2.05-4.58 [-5.54, -3.80]5.26 [4.27, 6.25]0% [0%, 0%]11%21%-1.24+0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d28 1 QC4.79 [3.77, 6.00]2.05-4.58 [-5.56, -3.74]5.26 [4.12, 6.38]0% [0%, 0%]11%21%-1.24+0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d28 1 QC4.79 [3.70, 6.13]2.05-4.58 [-5.62, -3.70]5.26 [4.09, 6.51]0% [0%, 0%]11%21%-1.24+0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall28 1 QC4.79 [3.70, 6.11]2.05-4.58 [-5.70, -3.70]5.26 [4.10, 6.45]0% [0%, 0%]11%21%-1.24+0.062026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC4.48 [3.61, 5.53]1.82-4.48 [-5.53, -3.61]5.02 [3.95, 6.09]0% [0%, 0%]11%32%-1.09+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC4.48 [3.52, 5.71]1.82-4.48 [-5.71, -3.52]5.02 [3.82, 6.33]0% [0%, 0%]11%32%-1.09+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC4.48 [3.46, 5.92]1.82-4.48 [-5.92, -3.46]5.02 [3.79, 6.54]0% [0%, 0%]11%32%-1.09+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall28 1 QC4.48 [3.47, 5.76]1.82-4.48 [-5.76, -3.47]5.02 [3.79, 6.26]0% [0%, 0%]11%32%-1.09+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d28 1 QC4.56 [3.70, 5.60]1.82-4.56 [-5.60, -3.70]5.08 [4.04, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]11%32%-1.13+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d28 1 QC4.56 [3.60, 5.77]1.82-4.56 [-5.77, -3.60]5.08 [3.91, 6.35]0% [0%, 0%]11%32%-1.13+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d28 1 QC4.56 [3.57, 5.97]1.82-4.56 [-5.97, -3.57]5.08 [3.88, 6.55]0% [0%, 0%]11%32%-1.13+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall28 1 QC4.56 [3.57, 5.80]1.82-4.56 [-5.80, -3.57]5.08 [3.88, 6.30]0% [0%, 0%]11%32%-1.13+0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC1.58 [1.12, 1.98]1.32+1.17 [0.67, 1.63]1.95 [1.47, 2.36]43% [27%, 60%]61%89%+0.25+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC1.58 [1.17, 2.06]1.32+1.17 [0.52, 1.69]1.95 [1.50, 2.40]43% [25%, 61%]61%89%+0.25+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC1.58 [1.11, 2.03]1.32+1.17 [0.46, 1.70]1.95 [1.41, 2.41]43% [23%, 62%]61%89%+0.25+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall28 1 QC1.58 [1.12, 2.05]1.32+1.17 [0.52, 1.70]1.95 [1.45, 2.41]43% [25%, 61%]61%89%+0.25+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d28 1 QC1.60 [1.13, 2.00]1.32+1.22 [0.73, 1.68]1.97 [1.50, 2.38]43% [27%, 60%]61%89%+0.24+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d28 1 QC1.60 [1.18, 2.07]1.32+1.22 [0.57, 1.74]1.97 [1.51, 2.43]43% [25%, 61%]61%89%+0.24+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d28 1 QC1.60 [1.11, 2.05]1.32+1.22 [0.51, 1.75]1.97 [1.43, 2.43]43% [23%, 62%]61%89%+0.24+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall28 1 QC1.60 [1.13, 2.06]1.32+1.22 [0.58, 1.74]1.97 [1.47, 2.44]43% [25%, 61%]61%89%+0.24+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC1.73 [1.25, 2.29]1.40+1.25 [0.65, 1.84]2.15 [1.57, 2.78]36% [19%, 57%]64%82%+0.18+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC1.73 [1.26, 2.37]1.40+1.25 [0.55, 1.88]2.15 [1.54, 2.86]36% [17%, 56%]64%82%+0.18+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC1.73 [1.20, 2.46]1.40+1.25 [0.48, 1.87]2.15 [1.51, 2.92]36% [14%, 59%]64%82%+0.18+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall28 1 QC1.73 [1.23, 2.41]1.40+1.25 [0.56, 1.94]2.15 [1.53, 2.88]36% [15%, 57%]64%82%+0.18+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d28 1 QC1.75 [1.27, 2.31]1.40+1.30 [0.69, 1.89]2.18 [1.59, 2.81]36% [19%, 57%]64%82%+0.17+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d28 1 QC1.75 [1.28, 2.39]1.40+1.30 [0.60, 1.93]2.18 [1.57, 2.89]36% [17%, 56%]64%82%+0.17+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d28 1 QC1.75 [1.22, 2.46]1.40+1.30 [0.55, 1.94]2.18 [1.54, 2.95]36% [14%, 59%]64%82%+0.17+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall28 1 QC1.75 [1.25, 2.43]1.40+1.30 [0.61, 2.01]2.18 [1.55, 2.91]36% [15%, 57%]64%82%+0.17+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSY, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -1.46 °F2026-08-04: -4.84 °F2026-08-05: -6.25 °F2026-08-06: -3.85 °F2026-08-07: -3.44 °F2026-08-08: -3.6 °F2026-08-09: -1.28 °F2026-08-10: -3.7 °F2026-08-11: -6.45 °F2026-08-12: -1.42 °F2026-08-13: -3.11 °F2026-08-14: -2.46 °F2026-08-15: -6.96 °F2026-08-16: -4.29 °F2026-08-17: -2.38 °F2026-08-18: -4.14 °F2026-08-19: -3.66 °F2026-08-20: -3.66 °F2026-08-21: -6.32 °F2026-08-22: -5.87 °F2026-08-23: -8.92 °F2026-08-24: -7.38 °F2026-08-25: -5.96 °F2026-08-26: -6.16 °F2026-08-27: +3.07 °F2026-08-28: -9.11 °F2026-08-29: -7.29 °F2026-08-30: -3.46 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.46
2026-08-29-7.29
2026-08-28-9.11
2026-08-27+3.07
2026-08-26-6.16
2026-08-25-5.96
2026-08-24-7.38
2026-08-23-8.92
2026-08-22-5.87
2026-08-21-6.32
2026-08-20-3.66
2026-08-19-3.66
2026-08-18-4.14
2026-08-17-2.38
2026-08-16-4.29
2026-08-15-6.96
2026-08-14-2.46
2026-08-13-3.11
2026-08-12-1.42
2026-08-11-6.45
2026-08-10-3.70
2026-08-09-1.28
2026-08-08-3.60
2026-08-07-3.44
2026-08-06-3.85
2026-08-05-6.25
2026-08-04-4.84
2026-08-03-1.46

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSY, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 5 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 8 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4 · P90 |e| 7.32 °F-100+10 °Fn = 28 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.005
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.008
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08284.66 -4.44

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 28 +0.33 [-0.48, 1.36] no
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -0.45 [-0.45, -0.45] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +1.33 [1.33, 1.33] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 26 -0.54 [-1.60, 0.67] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +0.39 [-0.52, 1.18] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 +0.69 [0.69, 0.69] yes
Persistence (baseline) 28 +2.52 [0.52, 4.12] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY gfs lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/gfs/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model gfs, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/gfs/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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