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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KMSY · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.80 [3.85, 5.98]1.72-4.80 [-5.98, -3.85]5.41 [4.11, 6.77]5% [0%, 12%]5%18%-1.71+0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.80 [3.84, 6.25]1.72-4.80 [-6.25, -3.84]5.41 [4.06, 7.17]5% [0%, 12%]5%18%-1.71+0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.80 [3.78, 6.28]1.72-4.80 [-6.28, -3.78]5.41 [4.00, 7.11]5% [0%, 12%]5%18%-1.71+0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.80 [3.67, 6.15]1.72-4.80 [-6.15, -3.67]5.41 [3.92, 6.96]5% [0%, 13%]5%18%-1.71+0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC4.76 [3.80, 5.96]1.73-4.76 [-5.96, -3.80]5.39 [4.06, 6.77]5% [0%, 12%]9%18%-1.69+0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC4.76 [3.80, 6.23]1.73-4.76 [-6.23, -3.80]5.39 [4.02, 7.17]5% [0%, 12%]9%18%-1.69+0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC4.76 [3.74, 6.27]1.73-4.76 [-6.27, -3.74]5.39 [3.95, 7.11]5% [0%, 12%]9%18%-1.69+0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC4.76 [3.62, 6.13]1.73-4.76 [-6.13, -3.62]5.39 [3.88, 6.95]5% [0%, 13%]9%18%-1.69+0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.54 [3.69, 5.51]1.86-4.54 [-5.51, -3.69]5.08 [4.00, 6.15]5% [0%, 12%]5%32%-1.56-0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.54 [3.64, 5.64]1.86-4.54 [-5.64, -3.64]5.08 [3.90, 6.28]5% [0%, 12%]5%32%-1.56-0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.54 [3.52, 5.75]1.86-4.54 [-5.75, -3.52]5.08 [3.82, 6.39]5% [0%, 12%]5%32%-1.56-0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.54 [3.47, 5.65]1.86-4.54 [-5.65, -3.47]5.08 [3.74, 6.35]5% [0%, 13%]5%32%-1.56-0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC4.51 [3.63, 5.49]1.88-4.51 [-5.49, -3.63]5.06 [3.95, 6.14]5% [0%, 12%]5%32%-1.54-0.052026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC4.51 [3.58, 5.63]1.88-4.51 [-5.63, -3.58]5.06 [3.85, 6.27]5% [0%, 12%]5%32%-1.54-0.052026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC4.51 [3.47, 5.73]1.88-4.51 [-5.73, -3.47]5.06 [3.77, 6.38]5% [0%, 12%]5%32%-1.54-0.052026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC4.51 [3.42, 5.64]1.88-4.51 [-5.64, -3.42]5.06 [3.69, 6.34]5% [0%, 13%]5%32%-1.54-0.052026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.46 [2.80, 4.30]1.75+3.30 [2.46, 4.20]3.93 [3.07, 4.79]9% [0%, 20%]41%45%-0.46+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.46 [2.67, 4.60]1.75+3.30 [2.02, 4.58]3.93 [2.97, 5.04]9% [0%, 21%]41%45%-0.46+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.46 [2.63, 4.78]1.75+3.30 [2.05, 4.78]3.93 [2.86, 5.19]9% [0%, 21%]41%45%-0.46+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.46 [2.66, 4.78]1.75+3.30 [2.06, 4.78]3.93 [2.93, 5.20]9% [0%, 20%]41%45%-0.46+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.45 [2.78, 4.29]1.75+3.28 [2.44, 4.20]3.92 [3.05, 4.78]9% [0%, 20%]41%45%-0.46+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.45 [2.67, 4.59]1.75+3.28 [2.01, 4.57]3.92 [2.96, 5.04]9% [0%, 21%]41%45%-0.46+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.45 [2.62, 4.76]1.75+3.28 [2.03, 4.76]3.92 [2.85, 5.17]9% [0%, 21%]41%45%-0.46+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC3.45 [2.63, 4.77]1.75+3.28 [2.03, 4.77]3.92 [2.92, 5.20]9% [0%, 20%]41%45%-0.46+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.12 [2.62, 3.73]1.53+2.90 [2.12, 3.64]3.45 [2.86, 4.05]5% [0%, 14%]36%45%-0.32+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.12 [2.51, 3.90]1.53+2.90 [1.83, 3.81]3.45 [2.77, 4.15]5% [0%, 17%]36%45%-0.32+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.12 [2.45, 3.92]1.53+2.90 [1.80, 3.91]3.45 [2.73, 4.24]5% [0%, 15%]36%45%-0.32+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.12 [2.51, 4.03]1.53+2.90 [1.60, 4.00]3.45 [2.76, 4.24]5% [0%, 15%]36%45%-0.32+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.11 [2.61, 3.71]1.53+2.88 [2.08, 3.63]3.44 [2.83, 4.05]5% [0%, 14%]36%45%-0.32+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.11 [2.50, 3.87]1.53+2.88 [1.80, 3.81]3.44 [2.76, 4.15]5% [0%, 17%]36%45%-0.32+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.11 [2.45, 3.92]1.53+2.88 [1.77, 3.89]3.44 [2.72, 4.22]5% [0%, 15%]36%45%-0.32+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC3.11 [2.48, 4.03]1.53+2.88 [1.58, 3.99]3.44 [2.74, 4.22]5% [0%, 15%]36%45%-0.32+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-04: -3.17 °F2026-08-10: -8.82 °F2026-08-11: -5.58 °F2026-08-12: -3.27 °F2026-08-13: -4.37 °F2026-08-14: -4.64 °F2026-08-15: -4.84 °F2026-08-16: -4.54 °F2026-08-17: -3.49 °F2026-08-18: -2.07 °F2026-08-19: -4.69 °F2026-08-20: -4.15 °F2026-08-21: -4.23 °F2026-08-22: -6.12 °F2026-08-23: -2.92 °F2026-08-24: -0.15 °F2026-08-25: -4.02 °F2026-08-26: -6.07 °F2026-08-27: -6.15 °F2026-08-28: -12.86 °F2026-08-29: -6.86 °F2026-08-30: -2.52 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.52
2026-08-29-6.86
2026-08-28-12.86
2026-08-27-6.15
2026-08-26-6.07
2026-08-25-4.02
2026-08-24-0.15
2026-08-23-2.92
2026-08-22-6.12
2026-08-21-4.23
2026-08-20-4.15
2026-08-19-4.69
2026-08-18-2.07
2026-08-17-3.49
2026-08-16-4.54
2026-08-15-4.84
2026-08-14-4.64
2026-08-13-4.37
2026-08-12-3.27
2026-08-11-5.58
2026-08-10-8.82
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04-3.17

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 3-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 4 days-6 to -4 °F: 9 days-4 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.46 · P90 |e| 6.79 °F-200+20 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.004
-6.00-4.009
-4.00-2.006
-2.00+0.001
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08224.80 -4.80

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +0.11 [-1.15, 1.69] no
NCEP GFS 22 +0.89 [-0.26, 2.56] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -0.50 [-1.54, 1.50] no
Persistence (baseline) 22 +3.02 [2.24, 3.89] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence