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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 3

KMSY · aifs_single · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC4.62 [4.12, 5.19]1.04-4.62 [-5.19, -4.12]4.82 [4.22, 5.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.08+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC4.62 [4.09, 5.13]1.04-4.62 [-5.13, -4.09]4.82 [4.17, 5.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.08+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC4.62 [4.05, 5.24]1.04-4.62 [-5.24, -4.05]4.82 [4.13, 5.52]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.08+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 1 QC4.62 [4.01, 5.30]1.04-4.62 [-5.30, -4.01]4.82 [4.08, 5.57]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.08+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 1 QC4.62 [4.12, 5.19]1.03-4.62 [-5.19, -4.12]4.82 [4.22, 5.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.08+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 1 QC4.62 [4.09, 5.13]1.03-4.62 [-5.13, -4.09]4.82 [4.17, 5.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.08+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 1 QC4.62 [4.05, 5.24]1.03-4.62 [-5.24, -4.05]4.82 [4.13, 5.52]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.08+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 1 QC4.62 [4.01, 5.30]1.03-4.62 [-5.30, -4.01]4.82 [4.07, 5.57]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.08+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC4.81 [4.41, 5.26]0.93-4.81 [-5.26, -4.41]4.95 [4.55, 5.38]0% [0%, 0%]4%7%-1.16+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC4.81 [4.35, 5.27]0.93-4.81 [-5.27, -4.35]4.95 [4.52, 5.38]0% [0%, 0%]4%7%-1.16+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC4.81 [4.28, 5.33]0.93-4.81 [-5.33, -4.28]4.95 [4.47, 5.43]0% [0%, 0%]4%7%-1.16+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 1 QC4.81 [4.31, 5.37]0.93-4.81 [-5.37, -4.31]4.95 [4.47, 5.48]0% [0%, 0%]4%7%-1.16+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 1 QC4.81 [4.42, 5.26]0.93-4.81 [-5.26, -4.42]4.95 [4.56, 5.38]0% [0%, 0%]4%7%-1.17+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 1 QC4.81 [4.36, 5.28]0.93-4.81 [-5.28, -4.36]4.95 [4.53, 5.38]0% [0%, 0%]4%7%-1.17+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 1 QC4.81 [4.29, 5.33]0.93-4.81 [-5.33, -4.29]4.95 [4.47, 5.43]0% [0%, 0%]4%7%-1.17+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 1 QC4.81 [4.32, 5.38]0.93-4.81 [-5.38, -4.32]4.95 [4.47, 5.48]0% [0%, 0%]4%7%-1.17+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.30 [2.86, 3.81]1.49+3.04 [2.35, 3.56]3.61 [3.10, 4.19]4% [0%, 12%]15%52%-0.54+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.30 [2.71, 3.85]1.49+3.04 [2.07, 3.57]3.61 [2.94, 4.22]4% [0%, 14%]15%52%-0.54+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.30 [2.72, 3.90]1.49+3.04 [1.94, 3.66]3.61 [2.96, 4.26]4% [0%, 15%]15%52%-0.54+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.30 [2.71, 3.97]1.49+3.04 [2.01, 3.72]3.61 [2.96, 4.33]4% [0%, 14%]15%52%-0.54+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 1 QC3.31 [2.86, 3.82]1.49+3.05 [2.36, 3.57]3.62 [3.11, 4.20]4% [0%, 12%]15%52%-0.54+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 1 QC3.31 [2.72, 3.86]1.49+3.05 [2.08, 3.59]3.62 [2.95, 4.23]4% [0%, 14%]15%52%-0.54+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 1 QC3.31 [2.73, 3.91]1.49+3.05 [1.95, 3.68]3.62 [2.97, 4.27]4% [0%, 15%]15%52%-0.54+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 1 QC3.31 [2.71, 3.98]1.49+3.05 [2.02, 3.73]3.62 [2.97, 4.34]4% [0%, 14%]15%52%-0.54+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC2.84 [2.29, 3.44]1.48+2.55 [1.76, 3.18]3.19 [2.49, 3.84]7% [0%, 17%]41%52%-0.32+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC2.84 [2.12, 3.49]1.48+2.55 [1.49, 3.20]3.19 [2.28, 3.91]7% [0%, 19%]41%52%-0.32+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.84 [2.18, 3.54]1.48+2.55 [1.41, 3.28]3.19 [2.34, 3.95]7% [0%, 21%]41%52%-0.32+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.84 [2.15, 3.57]1.48+2.55 [1.35, 3.31]3.19 [2.30, 3.97]7% [0%, 18%]41%52%-0.32+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 1 QC2.84 [2.29, 3.45]1.48+2.55 [1.77, 3.18]3.19 [2.49, 3.85]7% [0%, 17%]41%52%-0.32+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 1 QC2.84 [2.12, 3.49]1.48+2.55 [1.49, 3.21]3.19 [2.28, 3.92]7% [0%, 19%]41%52%-0.32+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 1 QC2.84 [2.18, 3.54]1.48+2.55 [1.41, 3.29]3.19 [2.34, 3.95]7% [0%, 21%]41%52%-0.32+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 1 QC2.84 [2.15, 3.58]1.48+2.55 [1.35, 3.31]3.19 [2.30, 3.97]7% [0%, 18%]41%52%-0.32+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -3.69 °F2026-08-05: -5.1 °F2026-08-06: -4.12 °F2026-08-07: -3.13 °F2026-08-08: -4.27 °F2026-08-09: -5.02 °F2026-08-10: -6.37 °F2026-08-11: -5.19 °F2026-08-12: -3.43 °F2026-08-13: -4.26 °F2026-08-14: -3.76 °F2026-08-15: -3.9 °F2026-08-16: -4.12 °F2026-08-17: -3.15 °F2026-08-18: -3.99 °F2026-08-19: -4.79 °F2026-08-20: -5.1 °F2026-08-21: -5.62 °F2026-08-22: -6.59 °F2026-08-23: -3.69 °F2026-08-24: -9.3 °F2026-08-25: -4.14 °F2026-08-26: -5.59 °F2026-08-27: -3.14 °F2026-08-28: -5.31 °F2026-08-29: -5.51 °F2026-08-30: -2.59 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.59
2026-08-29-5.51
2026-08-28-5.31
2026-08-27-3.14
2026-08-26-5.59
2026-08-25-4.14
2026-08-24-9.30
2026-08-23-3.69
2026-08-22-6.59
2026-08-21-5.62
2026-08-20-5.10
2026-08-19-4.79
2026-08-18-3.99
2026-08-17-3.15
2026-08-16-4.12
2026-08-15-3.90
2026-08-14-3.76
2026-08-13-4.26
2026-08-12-3.43
2026-08-11-5.19
2026-08-10-6.37
2026-08-09-5.02
2026-08-08-4.27
2026-08-07-3.13
2026-08-06-4.12
2026-08-05-5.10
2026-08-04-3.69

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 8 days-5 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -3 °F: 9 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.26 · P90 |e| 5.92 °F-100+10 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.008
-5.00-4.006
-4.00-3.009
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08274.62 -4.62

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 27 +0.84 [-0.30, 1.78] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -0.54 [-1.02, -0.10] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 -0.11 [-1.69, 1.15] no
Persistence (baseline) 27 +2.40 [0.61, 3.73] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY aifs_single lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence