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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 8

KMSY · ifs_hres · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.96 [2.96, 4.99]2.51-3.96 [-4.99, -2.96]4.89 [3.62, 5.83]12% [0%, 19%]29%53%-0.20+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.96 [2.60, 5.12]2.51-3.96 [-5.12, -2.60]4.89 [3.27, 6.03]12% [0%, 18%]29%53%-0.20+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.96 [2.42, 5.12]2.51-3.96 [-5.12, -2.42]4.89 [2.46, 5.96]12% [0%, 17%]29%53%-0.20+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.96 [2.79, 5.01]2.51-3.96 [-5.01, -2.79]4.89 [3.22, 5.89]12% [0%, 17%]29%53%-0.20+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 1 QC3.91 [2.88, 4.95]2.53-3.91 [-4.95, -2.88]4.86 [3.57, 5.80]12% [0%, 19%]29%59%-0.19+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 1 QC3.91 [2.53, 5.07]2.53-3.91 [-5.07, -2.53]4.86 [3.24, 5.97]12% [0%, 18%]29%59%-0.19+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 1 QC3.91 [2.35, 5.07]2.53-3.91 [-5.07, -2.35]4.86 [2.39, 5.93]12% [0%, 17%]29%59%-0.19+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 1 QC3.91 [2.72, 4.96]2.53-3.91 [-4.96, -2.72]4.86 [3.18, 5.86]12% [0%, 17%]29%59%-0.19+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC4.15 [2.87, 5.24]2.15-4.01 [-5.21, -2.68]4.89 [3.62, 6.06]18% [6%, 42%]18%29%-0.26+0.352026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC4.15 [1.99, 5.69]2.15-4.01 [-5.66, -1.99]4.89 [3.14, 6.37]18% [0%, 53%]18%29%-0.26+0.352026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC4.15 [2.01, 5.50]2.15-4.01 [-5.50, -2.01]4.89 [2.70, 6.29]18% [0%, 52%]18%29%-0.26+0.352026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC4.15 [2.22, 5.50]2.15-4.01 [-5.48, -2.13]4.89 [3.16, 6.30]18% [0%, 50%]18%29%-0.26+0.352026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC4.13 [2.84, 5.22]2.15-3.97 [-5.18, -2.64]4.86 [3.59, 6.04]12% [0%, 38%]18%29%-0.25+0.352026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC4.13 [1.96, 5.67]2.15-3.97 [-5.63, -1.96]4.86 [3.13, 6.35]12% [0%, 53%]18%29%-0.25+0.352026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC4.13 [1.98, 5.48]2.15-3.97 [-5.48, -1.98]4.86 [2.69, 6.27]12% [0%, 52%]18%29%-0.25+0.352026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC4.13 [2.19, 5.47]2.15-3.97 [-5.45, -2.09]4.86 [3.14, 6.27]12% [0%, 50%]18%29%-0.25+0.352026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.56 [2.50, 4.61]2.16+2.97 [1.52, 3.99]4.01 [2.83, 4.90]12% [0%, 35%]18%41%-0.24+0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.56 [2.44, 4.97]2.16+2.97 [1.14, 4.58]4.01 [2.63, 5.10]12% [0%, 40%]18%41%-0.24+0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.56 [2.41, 5.09]2.16+2.97 [1.13, 4.55]4.01 [2.64, 5.22]12% [0%, 39%]18%41%-0.24+0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.56 [2.42, 5.02]2.16+2.97 [1.04, 4.44]4.01 [2.61, 5.21]12% [0%, 40%]18%41%-0.24+0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 1 QC3.54 [2.47, 4.58]2.16+2.95 [1.48, 3.97]4.00 [2.80, 4.87]12% [0%, 35%]18%41%-0.23+0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 1 QC3.54 [2.41, 4.91]2.16+2.95 [1.11, 4.55]4.00 [2.59, 5.08]12% [0%, 40%]18%41%-0.23+0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 1 QC3.54 [2.38, 5.07]2.16+2.95 [1.09, 4.53]4.00 [2.62, 5.20]12% [0%, 39%]18%41%-0.23+0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 1 QC3.54 [2.39, 5.01]2.16+2.95 [1.01, 4.40]4.00 [2.58, 5.19]12% [0%, 40%]18%41%-0.23+0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.59 [2.52, 4.72]2.44+2.79 [0.93, 3.98]4.15 [3.01, 5.01]12% [0%, 35%]24%41%-0.25+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.59 [2.42, 4.95]2.44+2.79 [0.33, 4.61]4.15 [2.96, 5.19]12% [0%, 40%]24%41%-0.25+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.59 [2.34, 5.04]2.44+2.79 [0.35, 4.61]4.15 [2.90, 5.29]12% [0%, 39%]24%41%-0.25+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.59 [2.36, 5.00]2.44+2.79 [0.24, 4.61]4.15 [2.85, 5.29]12% [0%, 40%]24%41%-0.25+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.56 [2.49, 4.70]2.45+2.76 [0.89, 3.96]4.13 [2.99, 4.99]12% [0%, 35%]24%41%-0.24+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.56 [2.40, 4.90]2.45+2.76 [0.27, 4.54]4.13 [2.94, 5.18]12% [0%, 40%]24%41%-0.24+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.56 [2.32, 5.01]2.45+2.76 [0.29, 4.54]4.13 [2.87, 5.25]12% [0%, 39%]24%41%-0.24+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC3.56 [2.33, 4.98]2.45+2.76 [0.17, 4.54]4.13 [2.82, 5.25]12% [0%, 40%]24%41%-0.24+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-09: -1.27 °F2026-08-15: -6.17 °F2026-08-16: -5.34 °F2026-08-17: -3.06 °F2026-08-18: -3.08 °F2026-08-19: -0.36 °F2026-08-20: -1.69 °F2026-08-21: -1.62 °F2026-08-22: -7.42 °F2026-08-23: -9.08 °F2026-08-24: -2.31 °F2026-08-25: -2.51 °F2026-08-26: -2.9 °F2026-08-27: -0.45 °F2026-08-28: -9.1 °F2026-08-29: -8 °F2026-08-30: -2.95 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.95
2026-08-29-8.00
2026-08-28-9.10
2026-08-27-0.45
2026-08-26-2.90
2026-08-25-2.51
2026-08-24-2.31
2026-08-23-9.08
2026-08-22-7.42
2026-08-21-1.62
2026-08-20-1.69
2026-08-19-0.36
2026-08-18-3.08
2026-08-17-3.06
2026-08-16-5.34
2026-08-15-6.17
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-1.27

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 8-10 to -9 °F: 2 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.95 · P90 |e| 8.43 °F-100+10 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.002
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08173.96 -3.96

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 -0.73 [-3.02, 1.43] no
NCEP GFS 17 +0.35 [-0.93, 2.28] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -0.88 [-2.39, -0.04] yes
Persistence (baseline) 17 +0.67 [-2.76, 2.04] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY ifs_hres lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence