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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 8

KMSY · aifs_single · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC5.08 [3.90, 6.16]1.77-4.95 [-6.16, -3.59]5.61 [4.20, 6.64]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.57+0.442026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC5.08 [3.64, 6.39]1.77-4.95 [-6.39, -3.31]5.61 [3.76, 6.78]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.57+0.442026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC5.08 [3.51, 6.36]1.77-4.95 [-6.36, -3.13]5.61 [3.64, 6.73]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.57+0.442026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC5.08 [3.40, 6.32]1.77-4.95 [-6.32, -3.11]5.61 [3.59, 6.68]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.57+0.442026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC5.08 [3.90, 6.16]1.77-4.95 [-6.16, -3.59]5.61 [4.21, 6.64]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.57+0.442026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC5.08 [3.65, 6.39]1.77-4.95 [-6.39, -3.31]5.61 [3.77, 6.78]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.57+0.442026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC5.08 [3.51, 6.36]1.77-4.95 [-6.36, -3.13]5.61 [3.64, 6.73]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.57+0.442026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC5.08 [3.40, 6.33]1.77-4.95 [-6.33, -3.11]5.61 [3.59, 6.68]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.57+0.442026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC5.33 [4.14, 6.26]1.50-5.33 [-6.26, -4.14]5.76 [4.51, 6.69]5% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.65+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC5.33 [3.62, 6.43]1.50-5.33 [-6.43, -3.62]5.76 [3.91, 6.80]5% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.65+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC5.33 [3.59, 6.43]1.50-5.33 [-6.43, -3.59]5.76 [3.89, 6.87]5% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.65+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC5.33 [3.55, 6.35]1.50-5.33 [-6.35, -3.55]5.76 [3.85, 6.81]5% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.65+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC5.34 [4.15, 6.27]1.50-5.34 [-6.27, -4.15]5.77 [4.51, 6.70]5% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.65+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC5.34 [3.63, 6.43]1.50-5.34 [-6.43, -3.63]5.77 [3.91, 6.81]5% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.65+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC5.34 [3.59, 6.44]1.50-5.34 [-6.44, -3.59]5.77 [3.90, 6.89]5% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.65+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC5.34 [3.56, 6.36]1.50-5.34 [-6.36, -3.56]5.77 [3.86, 6.81]5% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.65+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.56 [2.57, 4.56]2.05+3.05 [1.99, 3.75]4.02 [2.92, 4.92]5% [0%, 16%]23%45%-0.33+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.56 [2.36, 4.60]2.05+3.05 [1.73, 3.80]4.02 [2.63, 4.94]5% [0%, 19%]23%45%-0.33+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.56 [2.36, 4.83]2.05+3.05 [1.66, 3.94]4.02 [2.63, 5.10]5% [0%, 19%]23%45%-0.33+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.56 [2.29, 4.89]2.05+3.05 [1.41, 3.96]4.02 [2.47, 5.17]5% [0%, 20%]23%45%-0.33+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.57 [2.58, 4.57]2.05+3.05 [1.99, 3.76]4.03 [2.92, 4.93]5% [0%, 16%]23%45%-0.33+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.57 [2.36, 4.61]2.05+3.05 [1.74, 3.81]4.03 [2.64, 4.94]5% [0%, 19%]23%45%-0.33+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.57 [2.37, 4.84]2.05+3.05 [1.67, 3.95]4.03 [2.63, 5.11]5% [0%, 19%]23%45%-0.33+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC3.57 [2.28, 4.89]2.05+3.05 [1.41, 3.98]4.03 [2.47, 5.18]5% [0%, 20%]23%45%-0.33+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.11 [2.32, 4.01]1.92+2.79 [1.64, 3.65]3.69 [2.66, 4.66]5% [0%, 12%]45%50%-0.16+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.11 [2.20, 4.11]1.92+2.79 [1.34, 3.71]3.69 [2.50, 4.76]5% [0%, 12%]45%50%-0.16+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.11 [2.20, 4.19]1.92+2.79 [1.32, 3.75]3.69 [2.46, 4.82]5% [0%, 14%]45%50%-0.16+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.11 [2.21, 4.21]1.92+2.79 [1.07, 3.84]3.69 [2.45, 4.81]5% [0%, 14%]45%50%-0.16+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.11 [2.32, 4.01]1.92+2.79 [1.64, 3.65]3.69 [2.66, 4.66]5% [0%, 12%]45%50%-0.16+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.11 [2.20, 4.11]1.92+2.79 [1.34, 3.71]3.69 [2.50, 4.76]5% [0%, 12%]45%50%-0.16+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.11 [2.20, 4.19]1.92+2.79 [1.32, 3.76]3.69 [2.46, 4.82]5% [0%, 14%]45%50%-0.16+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC3.11 [2.21, 4.21]1.92+2.79 [1.07, 3.84]3.69 [2.45, 4.81]5% [0%, 14%]45%50%-0.16+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-09: -6.19 °F2026-08-10: -8.38 °F2026-08-11: -6.49 °F2026-08-12: -5.37 °F2026-08-13: -7.84 °F2026-08-14: -3.91 °F2026-08-15: -4.9 °F2026-08-16: -4.81 °F2026-08-17: -3.56 °F2026-08-18: -4.06 °F2026-08-19: -4.96 °F2026-08-20: -4.06 °F2026-08-21: -5.82 °F2026-08-22: -6.01 °F2026-08-23: -13.01 °F2026-08-24: -4.41 °F2026-08-25: -2.58 °F2026-08-26: -2.85 °F2026-08-27: +1.36 °F2026-08-28: -3.48 °F2026-08-29: -4.57 °F2026-08-30: -3.08 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.08
2026-08-29-4.57
2026-08-28-3.48
2026-08-27+1.36
2026-08-26-2.85
2026-08-25-2.58
2026-08-24-4.41
2026-08-23-13.01
2026-08-22-6.01
2026-08-21-5.82
2026-08-20-4.06
2026-08-19-4.96
2026-08-18-4.06
2026-08-17-3.56
2026-08-16-4.81
2026-08-15-4.90
2026-08-14-3.91
2026-08-13-7.84
2026-08-12-5.37
2026-08-11-6.49
2026-08-10-8.38
2026-08-09-6.19

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 8-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 4 days-6 to -4 °F: 9 days-4 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.69 · P90 |e| 7.71 °F-200+20 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.004
-6.00-4.009
-4.00-2.006
-2.00+0.000
+0.00+2.001
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08225.08 -4.95

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 22 +1.60 [0.49, 3.24] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -0.11 [-1.41, 1.05] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 17 +0.73 [-1.43, 3.02] no
Persistence (baseline) 22 +1.85 [-0.57, 3.47] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY aifs_single lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence