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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KMSY · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC4.15 [2.96, 5.25]2.00-4.10 [-5.19, -2.96]4.81 [3.41, 5.97]17% [6%, 40%]22%33%-0.36+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC4.15 [2.55, 5.53]2.00-4.10 [-5.48, -2.55]4.81 [3.12, 6.19]17% [0%, 50%]22%33%-0.36+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC4.15 [2.63, 5.48]2.00-4.10 [-5.48, -2.63]4.81 [3.08, 6.17]17% [0%, 50%]22%33%-0.36+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC4.15 [2.65, 5.38]2.00-4.10 [-5.36, -2.63]4.81 [3.18, 6.10]17% [0%, 46%]22%33%-0.36+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC4.10 [2.88, 5.21]2.01-4.04 [-5.16, -2.88]4.77 [3.35, 5.96]17% [6%, 40%]22%33%-0.34+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC4.10 [2.45, 5.51]2.01-4.04 [-5.45, -2.45]4.77 [3.06, 6.18]17% [0%, 50%]22%33%-0.34+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC4.10 [2.53, 5.46]2.01-4.04 [-5.44, -2.53]4.77 [3.03, 6.15]17% [0%, 50%]22%33%-0.34+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC4.10 [2.56, 5.36]2.01-4.04 [-5.32, -2.53]4.77 [3.12, 6.10]17% [0%, 46%]22%33%-0.34+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC5.19 [3.36, 6.78]2.76-5.15 [-6.78, -3.30]6.22 [3.84, 7.75]12% [0%, 21%]18%24%-0.70+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC5.19 [2.90, 7.34]2.76-5.15 [-7.34, -2.90]6.22 [3.42, 8.10]12% [0%, 21%]18%24%-0.70+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC5.19 [2.88, 7.26]2.76-5.15 [-7.19, -2.84]6.22 [3.40, 7.88]12% [0%, 21%]18%24%-0.70+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC5.19 [2.88, 7.36]2.76-5.15 [-7.36, -2.84]6.22 [3.42, 7.98]12% [0%, 21%]18%24%-0.70+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC5.17 [3.34, 6.76]2.77-5.12 [-6.76, -3.26]6.21 [3.81, 7.74]12% [0%, 21%]18%24%-0.69+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC5.17 [2.86, 7.35]2.77-5.12 [-7.35, -2.86]6.21 [3.38, 8.09]12% [0%, 21%]18%24%-0.69+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC5.17 [2.86, 7.25]2.77-5.12 [-7.17, -2.81]6.21 [3.37, 7.89]12% [0%, 21%]18%24%-0.69+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC5.17 [2.86, 7.36]2.77-5.12 [-7.36, -2.80]6.21 [3.38, 7.98]12% [0%, 21%]18%24%-0.69+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.42 [2.91, 4.03]2.01+2.88 [1.07, 3.90]3.89 [3.34, 4.43]11% [0%, 24%]28%33%-0.62+0.062026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.42 [2.86, 4.13]2.01+2.88 [0.59, 4.04]3.89 [3.28, 4.48]11% [0%, 25%]28%33%-0.62+0.062026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.42 [2.87, 4.17]2.01+2.88 [0.57, 4.07]3.89 [3.34, 4.54]11% [0%, 23%]28%33%-0.62+0.062026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.42 [2.87, 4.21]2.01+2.88 [0.25, 4.09]3.89 [3.33, 4.57]11% [0%, 23%]28%33%-0.62+0.062026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.39 [2.88, 3.99]2.01+2.85 [1.02, 3.86]3.87 [3.33, 4.39]17% [0%, 26%]28%33%-0.60+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.39 [2.84, 4.09]2.01+2.85 [0.54, 4.01]3.87 [3.28, 4.44]17% [0%, 27%]28%33%-0.60+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.39 [2.85, 4.12]2.01+2.85 [0.51, 4.04]3.87 [3.30, 4.52]17% [0%, 29%]28%33%-0.60+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC3.39 [2.84, 4.17]2.01+2.85 [0.19, 4.06]3.87 [3.30, 4.54]17% [0%, 28%]28%33%-0.60+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.68 [2.63, 4.54]2.23+2.80 [1.18, 4.02]4.05 [3.20, 4.70]12% [0%, 33%]12%29%-0.69-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.68 [2.39, 4.60]2.23+2.80 [0.74, 4.14]4.05 [2.94, 4.73]12% [0%, 40%]12%29%-0.69-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.68 [2.51, 4.67]2.23+2.80 [0.63, 4.14]4.05 [3.03, 4.78]12% [0%, 38%]12%29%-0.69-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.68 [2.35, 4.73]2.23+2.80 [0.41, 4.14]4.05 [3.02, 4.85]12% [0%, 40%]12%29%-0.69-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.66 [2.62, 4.52]2.24+2.78 [1.13, 4.00]4.04 [3.19, 4.70]12% [0%, 33%]12%35%-0.68-0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.66 [2.36, 4.60]2.24+2.78 [0.70, 4.15]4.04 [2.94, 4.72]12% [0%, 40%]12%35%-0.68-0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.66 [2.49, 4.66]2.24+2.78 [0.58, 4.15]4.04 [3.03, 4.77]12% [0%, 38%]12%35%-0.68-0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC3.66 [2.34, 4.71]2.24+2.78 [0.38, 4.15]4.04 [3.02, 4.84]12% [0%, 40%]12%35%-0.68-0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -0.73 °F2026-08-14: -4.19 °F2026-08-15: -4.5 °F2026-08-16: -3.42 °F2026-08-17: -3.83 °F2026-08-18: -0.76 °F2026-08-19: -3.87 °F2026-08-20: -2.2 °F2026-08-21: -4.7 °F2026-08-22: -6.81 °F2026-08-23: -5.77 °F2026-08-24: -2.52 °F2026-08-25: +0.45 °F2026-08-26: -7.69 °F2026-08-27: -1.97 °F2026-08-28: -9.14 °F2026-08-29: -7.4 °F2026-08-30: -4.66 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.66
2026-08-29-7.40
2026-08-28-9.14
2026-08-27-1.97
2026-08-26-7.69
2026-08-25+0.45
2026-08-24-2.52
2026-08-23-5.77
2026-08-22-6.81
2026-08-21-4.70
2026-08-20-2.20
2026-08-19-3.87
2026-08-18-0.76
2026-08-17-3.83
2026-08-16-3.42
2026-08-15-4.50
2026-08-14-4.19
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08-0.73

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.03 · P90 |e| 7.48 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08184.15 -4.10

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -0.33 [-2.50, 1.95] no
NCEP GFS 18 -0.36 [-4.29, 1.57] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -0.95 [-2.97, 0.58] no
Persistence (baseline) 18 +1.09 [-2.08, 2.39] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence