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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 7

KMSY · aifs_single · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC5.03 [3.86, 6.19]1.54-5.03 [-6.19, -3.86]5.45 [4.25, 6.51]4% [0%, 14%]4%13%-0.73+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC5.03 [3.61, 6.49]1.54-5.03 [-6.49, -3.61]5.45 [3.88, 6.80]4% [0%, 14%]4%13%-0.73+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC5.03 [3.48, 6.37]1.54-5.03 [-6.37, -3.48]5.45 [3.80, 6.69]4% [0%, 14%]4%13%-0.73+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC5.03 [3.48, 6.37]1.54-5.03 [-6.37, -3.48]5.45 [3.74, 6.69]4% [0%, 14%]4%13%-0.73+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC5.03 [3.85, 6.20]1.54-5.03 [-6.20, -3.85]5.45 [4.25, 6.52]4% [0%, 14%]4%13%-0.73+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC5.03 [3.61, 6.50]1.54-5.03 [-6.50, -3.61]5.45 [3.88, 6.81]4% [0%, 14%]4%13%-0.73+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC5.03 [3.48, 6.38]1.54-5.03 [-6.38, -3.48]5.45 [3.80, 6.70]4% [0%, 14%]4%13%-0.73+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC5.03 [3.48, 6.38]1.54-5.03 [-6.38, -3.48]5.45 [3.74, 6.69]4% [0%, 14%]4%13%-0.73+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC5.17 [4.18, 6.08]1.49-5.17 [-6.08, -4.18]5.57 [4.68, 6.42]4% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.77+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC5.17 [4.05, 6.32]1.49-5.17 [-6.32, -4.05]5.57 [4.58, 6.59]4% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.77+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC5.17 [3.86, 6.27]1.49-5.17 [-6.27, -3.86]5.57 [4.47, 6.59]4% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.77+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 1 QC5.17 [3.87, 6.19]1.49-5.17 [-6.19, -3.87]5.57 [4.48, 6.46]4% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.77+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC5.18 [4.19, 6.09]1.49-5.18 [-6.09, -4.19]5.58 [4.69, 6.43]4% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.78+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC5.18 [4.05, 6.32]1.49-5.18 [-6.32, -4.05]5.58 [4.58, 6.60]4% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.78+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 1 QC5.18 [3.87, 6.28]1.49-5.18 [-6.28, -3.87]5.58 [4.47, 6.60]4% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.78+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 1 QC5.18 [3.87, 6.20]1.49-5.18 [-6.20, -3.87]5.58 [4.49, 6.47]4% [0%, 14%]9%9%-0.78+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.53 [2.51, 4.54]1.85+3.38 [2.19, 4.40]4.02 [2.79, 5.00]0% [0%, 0%]35%57%-0.77+0.082026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.53 [2.15, 4.56]1.85+3.38 [1.92, 4.47]4.02 [2.24, 5.01]0% [0%, 0%]35%57%-0.77+0.082026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.53 [2.16, 4.70]1.85+3.38 [1.84, 4.66]4.02 [2.26, 5.13]0% [0%, 0%]35%57%-0.77+0.082026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.53 [2.11, 4.84]1.85+3.38 [1.58, 4.71]4.02 [2.20, 5.22]0% [0%, 0%]35%57%-0.77+0.082026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC3.54 [2.52, 4.54]1.85+3.39 [2.20, 4.41]4.02 [2.80, 5.01]0% [0%, 0%]35%57%-0.77+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC3.54 [2.15, 4.57]1.85+3.39 [1.92, 4.48]4.02 [2.24, 5.02]0% [0%, 0%]35%57%-0.77+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC3.54 [2.16, 4.71]1.85+3.39 [1.85, 4.67]4.02 [2.26, 5.13]0% [0%, 0%]35%57%-0.77+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC3.54 [2.11, 4.85]1.85+3.39 [1.59, 4.72]4.02 [2.20, 5.23]0% [0%, 0%]35%57%-0.77+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.26 [2.31, 4.21]1.95+2.99 [1.83, 3.91]3.81 [2.68, 4.78]9% [0%, 20%]39%57%-0.63+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.26 [2.12, 4.21]1.95+2.99 [1.59, 3.96]3.81 [2.35, 4.77]9% [0%, 22%]39%57%-0.63+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.26 [2.15, 4.41]1.95+2.99 [1.53, 4.13]3.81 [2.40, 4.93]9% [0%, 22%]39%57%-0.63+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.26 [2.09, 4.47]1.95+2.99 [1.33, 4.20]3.81 [2.30, 5.01]9% [0%, 22%]39%57%-0.63+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC3.27 [2.31, 4.21]1.95+3.00 [1.83, 3.91]3.81 [2.68, 4.78]9% [0%, 20%]39%57%-0.63+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC3.27 [2.12, 4.21]1.95+3.00 [1.59, 3.96]3.81 [2.35, 4.77]9% [0%, 22%]39%57%-0.63+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 1 QC3.27 [2.15, 4.41]1.95+3.00 [1.53, 4.13]3.81 [2.40, 4.93]9% [0%, 22%]39%57%-0.63+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 1 QC3.27 [2.09, 4.47]1.95+3.00 [1.34, 4.20]3.81 [2.29, 5.01]9% [0%, 22%]39%57%-0.63+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -5.87 °F2026-08-09: -6.73 °F2026-08-10: -9.6 °F2026-08-11: -8.82 °F2026-08-12: -4.48 °F2026-08-13: -5.42 °F2026-08-14: -3.75 °F2026-08-15: -4.66 °F2026-08-16: -5.09 °F2026-08-17: -3.98 °F2026-08-18: -5.34 °F2026-08-19: -3.68 °F2026-08-20: -4.51 °F2026-08-21: -5.49 °F2026-08-22: -9.7 °F2026-08-23: -4.1 °F2026-08-24: -5.87 °F2026-08-25: -2.74 °F2026-08-26: -4.39 °F2026-08-27: -0.66 °F2026-08-28: -3.91 °F2026-08-29: -4.7 °F2026-08-30: -2.13 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.13
2026-08-29-4.70
2026-08-28-3.91
2026-08-27-0.66
2026-08-26-4.39
2026-08-25-2.74
2026-08-24-5.87
2026-08-23-4.10
2026-08-22-9.70
2026-08-21-5.49
2026-08-20-4.51
2026-08-19-3.68
2026-08-18-5.34
2026-08-17-3.98
2026-08-16-5.09
2026-08-15-4.66
2026-08-14-3.75
2026-08-13-5.42
2026-08-12-4.48
2026-08-11-8.82
2026-08-10-9.60
2026-08-09-6.73
2026-08-08-5.87

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 2 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 6 days-5 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.66 · P90 |e| 8.4 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.002
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.006
-5.00-4.006
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08235.03 -5.03

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 23 +0.89 [-0.81, 2.29] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -0.35 [-1.32, 0.60] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +0.33 [-1.95, 2.50] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +2.11 [-0.53, 3.98] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY aifs_single lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence