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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · NCEP GFS · lead day 7

KMSY · gfs · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC4.14 [3.39, 4.98]2.15-3.62 [-4.60, -2.49]4.74 [3.87, 5.64]13% [5%, 25%]17%30%-0.42+0.272026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC4.14 [3.33, 5.17]2.15-3.62 [-4.69, -2.54]4.74 [3.73, 5.77]13% [3%, 25%]17%30%-0.42+0.272026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC4.14 [3.21, 5.19]2.15-3.62 [-4.81, -2.46]4.74 [3.64, 5.84]13% [0%, 25%]17%30%-0.42+0.272026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC4.14 [3.26, 5.24]2.15-3.62 [-4.96, -2.38]4.74 [3.72, 5.81]13% [0%, 30%]17%30%-0.42+0.272026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC4.28 [3.52, 5.09]2.17-3.77 [-4.76, -2.66]4.86 [4.02, 5.75]9% [0%, 21%]17%30%-0.47+0.262026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC4.28 [3.47, 5.28]2.17-3.77 [-4.85, -2.70]4.86 [3.86, 5.86]9% [0%, 25%]17%30%-0.47+0.262026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC4.28 [3.34, 5.32]2.17-3.77 [-4.94, -2.59]4.86 [3.80, 5.94]9% [0%, 25%]17%30%-0.47+0.262026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC4.28 [3.41, 5.34]2.17-3.77 [-5.09, -2.54]4.86 [3.87, 5.91]9% [0%, 29%]17%30%-0.47+0.262026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.97 [2.77, 4.94]2.25-3.51 [-4.40, -2.15]4.63 [3.34, 5.51]9% [0%, 24%]17%43%-0.36+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.97 [2.34, 4.98]2.25-3.51 [-4.49, -2.01]4.63 [2.90, 5.56]9% [0%, 27%]17%43%-0.36+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.97 [2.21, 5.07]2.25-3.51 [-4.52, -2.04]4.63 [2.57, 5.66]9% [0%, 27%]17%43%-0.36+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.97 [2.21, 5.05]2.25-3.51 [-4.52, -1.95]4.63 [2.57, 5.65]9% [0%, 28%]17%43%-0.36+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC4.09 [2.90, 5.03]2.25-3.66 [-4.58, -2.24]4.76 [3.39, 5.65]9% [0%, 24%]17%35%-0.40+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC4.09 [2.45, 5.08]2.25-3.66 [-4.64, -2.12]4.76 [3.00, 5.66]9% [0%, 27%]17%35%-0.40+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 1 QC4.09 [2.35, 5.17]2.25-3.66 [-4.67, -2.17]4.76 [2.66, 5.77]9% [0%, 27%]17%35%-0.40+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 1 QC4.09 [2.35, 5.17]2.25-3.66 [-4.66, -2.08]4.76 [2.66, 5.77]9% [0%, 28%]17%35%-0.40+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC1.96 [1.30, 2.80]1.91+0.96 [0.13, 1.78]2.46 [1.77, 3.18]43% [20%, 62%]52%70%+0.02+0.052026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC1.96 [1.23, 2.91]1.91+0.96 [0.05, 1.84]2.46 [1.70, 3.25]43% [17%, 65%]52%70%+0.02+0.052026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC1.96 [1.21, 2.92]1.91+0.96 [-0.19, 1.86]2.46 [1.67, 3.27]43% [15%, 64%]52%70%+0.02+0.052026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC1.96 [1.28, 2.97]1.91+0.96 [-0.15, 1.84]2.46 [1.73, 3.30]43% [16%, 63%]52%70%+0.02+0.052026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC1.97 [1.31, 2.82]1.91+0.99 [0.16, 1.81]2.48 [1.78, 3.20]48% [20%, 72%]52%70%+0.01+0.052026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC1.97 [1.23, 2.94]1.91+0.99 [0.08, 1.88]2.48 [1.70, 3.27]48% [17%, 75%]52%70%+0.01+0.052026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC1.97 [1.21, 2.94]1.91+0.99 [-0.15, 1.90]2.48 [1.68, 3.30]48% [15%, 75%]52%70%+0.01+0.052026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC1.97 [1.28, 2.99]1.91+0.99 [-0.12, 1.88]2.48 [1.73, 3.31]48% [16%, 72%]52%70%+0.01+0.052026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.21 [1.45, 3.17]1.92+1.09 [0.17, 1.93]2.70 [1.90, 3.47]30% [0%, 52%]52%65%-0.11+0.042026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.21 [1.44, 3.28]1.92+1.09 [0.05, 2.04]2.70 [1.83, 3.53]30% [0%, 52%]52%65%-0.11+0.042026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.21 [1.35, 3.31]1.92+1.09 [-0.20, 2.11]2.70 [1.71, 3.55]30% [0%, 57%]52%65%-0.11+0.042026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.21 [1.36, 3.32]1.92+1.09 [-0.26, 2.02]2.70 [1.72, 3.57]30% [0%, 57%]52%65%-0.11+0.042026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC2.24 [1.46, 3.19]1.93+1.13 [0.21, 1.98]2.72 [1.92, 3.49]35% [12%, 53%]52%61%-0.12+0.032026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC2.24 [1.45, 3.30]1.93+1.13 [0.10, 2.11]2.72 [1.85, 3.55]35% [8%, 53%]52%61%-0.12+0.032026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 1 QC2.24 [1.36, 3.32]1.93+1.13 [-0.17, 2.17]2.72 [1.72, 3.58]35% [7%, 57%]52%61%-0.12+0.032026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 1 QC2.24 [1.37, 3.35]1.93+1.13 [-0.22, 2.08]2.72 [1.74, 3.58]35% [7%, 57%]52%61%-0.12+0.032026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSY, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -9.66 °F2026-08-09: -2.44 °F2026-08-10: -4.55 °F2026-08-11: -3.41 °F2026-08-12: -0.9 °F2026-08-13: -2.81 °F2026-08-14: -6.19 °F2026-08-15: -3.43 °F2026-08-16: -5.03 °F2026-08-17: -3.24 °F2026-08-18: -3.75 °F2026-08-19: -0.57 °F2026-08-20: -4.71 °F2026-08-21: -3.29 °F2026-08-22: -1.89 °F2026-08-23: -6.32 °F2026-08-24: -6.38 °F2026-08-25: -8.64 °F2026-08-26: -4.25 °F2026-08-27: +5.89 °F2026-08-28: -2.17 °F2026-08-29: -5.12 °F2026-08-30: -0.49 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.49
2026-08-29-5.12
2026-08-28-2.17
2026-08-27+5.89
2026-08-26-4.25
2026-08-25-8.64
2026-08-24-6.38
2026-08-23-6.32
2026-08-22-1.89
2026-08-21-3.29
2026-08-20-4.71
2026-08-19-0.57
2026-08-18-3.75
2026-08-17-3.24
2026-08-16-5.03
2026-08-15-3.43
2026-08-14-6.19
2026-08-13-2.81
2026-08-12-0.90
2026-08-11-3.41
2026-08-10-4.55
2026-08-09-2.44
2026-08-08-9.66

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSY, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.75 · P90 |e| 6.37 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.003
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.003
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08234.14 -3.62

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -0.89 [-2.29, 0.81] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -1.24 [-2.34, 0.20] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +0.36 [-1.57, 4.29] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +1.22 [-0.63, 2.78] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY gfs lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/gfs/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model gfs, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/gfs/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence