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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 9

KMSY · aifs_single · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC4.83 [3.73, 5.71]1.95-4.38 [-5.65, -2.69]5.16 [4.03, 5.91]0% [0%, 0%]10%14%-0.47+0.412026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC4.83 [3.26, 5.91]1.95-4.38 [-5.91, -2.47]5.16 [3.57, 6.00]0% [0%, 0%]10%14%-0.47+0.412026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d21 1 QC4.83 [3.19, 5.90]1.95-4.38 [-5.90, -2.35]5.16 [3.49, 6.03]0% [0%, 0%]10%14%-0.47+0.412026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall21 1 QC4.83 [3.11, 5.85]1.95-4.38 [-5.85, -2.05]5.16 [3.44, 5.95]0% [0%, 0%]10%14%-0.47+0.412026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d21 1 QC4.83 [3.74, 5.72]1.95-4.38 [-5.66, -2.70]5.16 [4.03, 5.91]0% [0%, 0%]10%14%-0.47+0.412026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d21 1 QC4.83 [3.27, 5.91]1.95-4.38 [-5.91, -2.47]5.16 [3.58, 6.00]0% [0%, 0%]10%14%-0.47+0.412026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d21 1 QC4.83 [3.20, 5.91]1.95-4.38 [-5.91, -2.35]5.16 [3.50, 6.04]0% [0%, 0%]10%14%-0.47+0.412026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall21 1 QC4.83 [3.11, 5.85]1.95-4.38 [-5.85, -2.04]5.16 [3.44, 5.96]0% [0%, 0%]10%14%-0.47+0.412026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC5.58 [4.47, 6.44]1.72-5.58 [-6.44, -4.47]6.09 [5.04, 6.95]5% [0%, 20%]5%10%-0.70+0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC5.58 [4.18, 6.57]1.72-5.58 [-6.57, -4.18]6.09 [4.86, 7.07]5% [0%, 24%]5%10%-0.70+0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC5.58 [4.17, 6.70]1.72-5.58 [-6.70, -4.17]6.09 [4.81, 7.21]5% [0%, 22%]5%10%-0.70+0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC5.58 [3.99, 6.71]1.72-5.58 [-6.71, -3.99]6.09 [4.64, 7.24]5% [0%, 30%]5%10%-0.70+0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC5.58 [4.47, 6.44]1.72-5.58 [-6.44, -4.47]6.09 [5.04, 6.96]5% [0%, 20%]5%10%-0.70+0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC5.58 [4.18, 6.58]1.72-5.58 [-6.58, -4.18]6.09 [4.86, 7.08]5% [0%, 24%]5%10%-0.70+0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC5.58 [4.17, 6.70]1.72-5.58 [-6.70, -4.17]6.09 [4.82, 7.21]5% [0%, 22%]5%10%-0.70+0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC5.58 [3.99, 6.72]1.72-5.58 [-6.72, -3.99]6.09 [4.64, 7.24]5% [0%, 30%]5%10%-0.70+0.482026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.56 [2.72, 4.40]2.10+3.25 [1.98, 3.99]4.19 [3.07, 5.20]14% [0%, 31%]33%43%-0.29+0.242026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.56 [2.56, 4.41]2.10+3.25 [1.76, 3.99]4.19 [2.80, 5.24]14% [0%, 32%]33%43%-0.29+0.242026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.56 [2.53, 4.45]2.10+3.25 [1.76, 4.04]4.19 [2.74, 5.27]14% [0%, 33%]33%43%-0.29+0.242026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.56 [2.57, 4.43]2.10+3.25 [1.43, 4.04]4.19 [2.80, 5.30]14% [0%, 33%]33%43%-0.29+0.242026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d21 1 QC3.57 [2.72, 4.41]2.10+3.25 [1.98, 4.00]4.20 [3.08, 5.21]14% [0%, 31%]33%43%-0.29+0.242026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d21 1 QC3.57 [2.56, 4.42]2.10+3.25 [1.77, 4.00]4.20 [2.81, 5.25]14% [0%, 32%]33%43%-0.29+0.242026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d21 1 QC3.57 [2.53, 4.45]2.10+3.25 [1.77, 4.05]4.20 [2.74, 5.28]14% [0%, 33%]33%43%-0.29+0.242026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall21 1 QC3.57 [2.57, 4.44]2.10+3.25 [1.44, 4.05]4.20 [2.80, 5.31]14% [0%, 33%]33%43%-0.29+0.242026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.93 [2.25, 3.69]1.84+2.21 [1.01, 2.77]3.35 [2.62, 3.99]5% [0%, 17%]33%57%-0.06+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.93 [2.05, 3.78]1.84+2.21 [0.79, 2.78]3.35 [2.31, 4.06]5% [0%, 20%]33%57%-0.06+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC2.93 [2.10, 3.88]1.84+2.21 [0.71, 2.84]3.35 [2.45, 4.14]5% [0%, 20%]33%57%-0.06+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC2.93 [2.09, 3.88]1.84+2.21 [0.46, 2.84]3.35 [2.45, 4.14]5% [0%, 22%]33%57%-0.06+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC2.93 [2.25, 3.70]1.84+2.21 [1.01, 2.77]3.35 [2.62, 3.99]10% [0%, 22%]33%57%-0.06+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC2.93 [2.06, 3.79]1.84+2.21 [0.79, 2.78]3.35 [2.31, 4.06]10% [0%, 25%]33%57%-0.06+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC2.93 [2.10, 3.88]1.84+2.21 [0.70, 2.85]3.35 [2.45, 4.14]10% [0%, 25%]33%57%-0.06+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC2.93 [2.09, 3.88]1.84+2.21 [0.46, 2.85]3.35 [2.45, 4.14]10% [0%, 26%]33%57%-0.06+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-10: -6.63 °F2026-08-11: -5.86 °F2026-08-12: -4.23 °F2026-08-13: -7.32 °F2026-08-14: -6.27 °F2026-08-15: -6.08 °F2026-08-16: -4.94 °F2026-08-17: -3.32 °F2026-08-18: -3.37 °F2026-08-19: -3.18 °F2026-08-20: -4.72 °F2026-08-21: -3.55 °F2026-08-22: -6.46 °F2026-08-23: -7.74 °F2026-08-24: -7.96 °F2026-08-25: -4.63 °F2026-08-26: -2.77 °F2026-08-27: +4.8 °F2026-08-28: -1.51 °F2026-08-29: -4.38 °F2026-08-30: -1.76 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.76
2026-08-29-4.38
2026-08-28-1.51
2026-08-27+4.80
2026-08-26-2.77
2026-08-25-4.63
2026-08-24-7.96
2026-08-23-7.74
2026-08-22-6.46
2026-08-21-3.55
2026-08-20-4.72
2026-08-19-3.18
2026-08-18-3.37
2026-08-17-3.32
2026-08-16-4.94
2026-08-15-6.08
2026-08-14-6.27
2026-08-13-7.32
2026-08-12-4.23
2026-08-11-5.86
2026-08-10-6.63

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 9-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 3 days-7 to -6 °F: 4 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.72 · P90 |e| 7.32 °F-100+10 °Fn = 21 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.003
-7.00-6.004
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08214.83 -4.38

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 21 +0.36 [-0.37, 1.21] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -0.32 [-2.20, 0.75] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 16 -0.08 [-2.16, 1.18] no
Persistence (baseline) 21 +1.55 [-0.93, 2.96] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY aifs_single lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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