Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 9

KMSY · ifs_hres · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC4.57 [3.74, 5.88]2.68-3.94 [-5.62, -3.18]5.28 [4.14, 6.54]0% [0%, 0%]12%38%-0.38+0.192026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC4.57 [3.71, 6.35]2.68-3.94 [-6.35, -3.22]5.28 [4.04, 6.80]0% [0%, 0%]12%38%-0.38+0.192026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC4.57 [3.72, 6.34]2.68-3.94 [-6.34, -3.13]5.28 [4.03, 6.80]0% [0%, 0%]12%38%-0.38+0.192026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall16 1 QC4.57 [3.79, 6.33]2.68-3.94 [-6.33, -3.13]5.28 [4.09, 6.72]0% [0%, 0%]12%38%-0.38+0.192026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d16 1 QC4.54 [3.71, 5.86]2.70-3.90 [-5.57, -3.14]5.25 [4.11, 6.52]0% [0%, 0%]12%38%-0.37+0.192026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d16 1 QC4.54 [3.67, 6.31]2.70-3.90 [-6.31, -3.18]5.25 [4.00, 6.78]0% [0%, 0%]12%38%-0.37+0.192026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d16 1 QC4.54 [3.68, 6.31]2.70-3.90 [-6.31, -3.09]5.25 [3.99, 6.78]0% [0%, 0%]12%38%-0.37+0.192026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall16 1 QC4.54 [3.75, 6.31]2.70-3.90 [-6.31, -3.10]5.25 [4.05, 6.71]0% [0%, 0%]12%38%-0.37+0.192026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC4.19 [2.94, 5.90]3.05-3.85 [-5.65, -2.88]5.40 [3.86, 6.59]20% [0%, 43%]27%47%-0.28+0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC4.19 [2.84, 6.13]3.05-3.85 [-5.83, -2.77]5.40 [3.69, 6.75]20% [0%, 45%]27%47%-0.28+0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC4.19 [2.84, 6.10]3.05-3.85 [-5.83, -2.76]5.40 [3.62, 6.77]20% [0%, 46%]27%47%-0.28+0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall15 1 QC4.19 [3.00, 5.99]3.05-3.85 [-5.63, -2.91]5.40 [3.77, 6.73]20% [0%, 43%]27%47%-0.28+0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d15 1 QC4.16 [2.89, 5.88]3.07-3.80 [-5.62, -2.81]5.38 [3.79, 6.58]20% [0%, 43%]27%47%-0.27+0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d15 1 QC4.16 [2.80, 6.15]3.07-3.80 [-5.80, -2.70]5.38 [3.63, 6.75]20% [0%, 45%]27%47%-0.27+0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d15 1 QC4.16 [2.80, 6.10]3.07-3.80 [-5.82, -2.69]5.38 [3.55, 6.77]20% [0%, 46%]27%47%-0.27+0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall15 1 QC4.16 [2.94, 5.99]3.07-3.80 [-5.61, -2.83]5.38 [3.70, 6.74]20% [0%, 43%]27%47%-0.27+0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC3.66 [2.25, 4.54]2.49+3.06 [1.04, 4.22]4.24 [2.47, 4.99]6% [0%, 14%]31%50%-0.22+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC3.66 [2.17, 4.52]2.49+3.06 [0.64, 4.19]4.24 [2.39, 5.01]6% [0%, 14%]31%50%-0.22+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC3.66 [2.06, 4.60]2.49+3.06 [0.60, 4.32]4.24 [2.24, 5.09]6% [0%, 14%]31%50%-0.22+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall16 1 QC3.66 [1.94, 4.69]2.49+3.06 [0.33, 4.47]4.24 [2.06, 5.09]6% [0%, 14%]31%50%-0.22+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d16 1 QC3.65 [2.25, 4.53]2.50+3.04 [1.00, 4.20]4.23 [2.47, 4.97]6% [0%, 14%]31%50%-0.22+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d16 1 QC3.65 [2.16, 4.50]2.50+3.04 [0.59, 4.17]4.23 [2.39, 5.00]6% [0%, 14%]31%50%-0.22+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d16 1 QC3.65 [2.05, 4.58]2.50+3.04 [0.56, 4.30]4.23 [2.23, 5.08]6% [0%, 14%]31%50%-0.22+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall16 1 QC3.65 [1.96, 4.67]2.50+3.04 [0.29, 4.46]4.23 [2.06, 5.08]6% [0%, 14%]31%50%-0.22+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC3.59 [2.08, 4.73]3.13+2.24 [0.11, 3.59]4.22 [2.45, 5.11]7% [0%, 18%]33%33%-0.17-0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC3.59 [1.99, 4.73]3.13+2.24 [-0.09, 3.97]4.22 [2.41, 5.11]7% [0%, 20%]33%33%-0.17-0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC3.59 [1.85, 4.80]3.13+2.24 [-0.23, 3.97]4.22 [2.30, 5.24]7% [0%, 20%]33%33%-0.17-0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall15 1 QC3.59 [1.84, 4.98]3.13+2.24 [-0.34, 3.97]4.22 [2.32, 5.24]7% [0%, 18%]33%33%-0.17-0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d15 1 QC3.58 [2.08, 4.71]3.13+2.21 [0.07, 3.56]4.21 [2.43, 5.09]7% [0%, 18%]33%33%-0.17-0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d15 1 QC3.58 [1.99, 4.72]3.13+2.21 [-0.13, 3.90]4.21 [2.40, 5.10]7% [0%, 20%]33%33%-0.17-0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d15 1 QC3.58 [1.85, 4.79]3.13+2.21 [-0.27, 3.90]4.21 [2.29, 5.23]7% [0%, 20%]33%33%-0.17-0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall15 1 QC3.58 [1.83, 4.98]3.13+2.21 [-0.39, 3.90]4.21 [2.30, 5.23]7% [0%, 18%]33%33%-0.17-0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-10: -6.36 °F2026-08-16: -5.49 °F2026-08-17: -3.63 °F2026-08-18: -4.68 °F2026-08-19: -2.6 °F2026-08-20: -2.67 °F2026-08-21: -3.09 °F2026-08-22: +1.2 °F2026-08-23: -9.75 °F2026-08-24: -5.6 °F2026-08-25: -2.35 °F2026-08-26: -2.89 °F2026-08-27: +3.79 °F2026-08-28: -6.31 °F2026-08-29: -10.82 °F2026-08-30: -1.81 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.81
2026-08-29-10.82
2026-08-28-6.31
2026-08-27+3.79
2026-08-26-2.89
2026-08-25-2.35
2026-08-24-5.60
2026-08-23-9.75
2026-08-22+1.20
2026-08-21-3.09
2026-08-20-2.67
2026-08-19-2.60
2026-08-18-4.68
2026-08-17-3.63
2026-08-16-5.49
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10-6.36

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 9-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.71 · P90 |e| 8.06 °F-200+20 °Fn = 16 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.002
-6.00-4.003
-4.00-2.006
-2.00+0.001
+0.00+2.001
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08164.57 -3.94

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 16 +0.08 [-1.18, 2.16] no
NCEP GFS 16 +0.30 [-1.32, 3.29] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 16 -0.22 [-2.05, 0.28] no
Persistence (baseline) 16 +1.25 [-0.34, 3.29] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY ifs_hres lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence