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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 4

KMSY · aifs_single · lead 4

Target day = initialization date + 4 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d26 1 QC4.71 [4.10, 5.19]1.03-4.71 [-5.19, -4.10]4.91 [4.27, 5.38]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-0.88+0.592026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d26 1 QC4.71 [4.04, 5.18]1.03-4.71 [-5.18, -4.04]4.91 [4.18, 5.36]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-0.88+0.592026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d26 1 QC4.71 [4.01, 5.24]1.03-4.71 [-5.24, -4.01]4.91 [4.15, 5.42]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-0.88+0.592026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall26 1 QC4.71 [3.90, 5.26]1.03-4.71 [-5.26, -3.90]4.91 [4.04, 5.43]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-0.88+0.592026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d26 1 QC4.71 [4.10, 5.18]1.03-4.71 [-5.18, -4.10]4.91 [4.27, 5.38]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-0.88+0.592026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d26 1 QC4.71 [4.04, 5.18]1.03-4.71 [-5.18, -4.04]4.91 [4.18, 5.36]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-0.88+0.592026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d26 1 QC4.71 [4.01, 5.25]1.03-4.71 [-5.25, -4.01]4.91 [4.15, 5.42]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-0.88+0.592026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall26 1 QC4.71 [3.90, 5.26]1.03-4.71 [-5.26, -3.90]4.91 [4.04, 5.43]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-0.88+0.592026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d26 1 QC4.89 [4.52, 5.22]0.82-4.89 [-5.22, -4.52]5.00 [4.62, 5.33]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-0.95+0.672026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d26 1 QC4.89 [4.50, 5.20]0.82-4.89 [-5.20, -4.50]5.00 [4.60, 5.30]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-0.95+0.672026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d26 1 QC4.89 [4.45, 5.25]0.82-4.89 [-5.25, -4.45]5.00 [4.54, 5.36]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-0.95+0.672026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall26 1 QC4.89 [4.40, 5.29]0.82-4.89 [-5.29, -4.40]5.00 [4.48, 5.39]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-0.95+0.672026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d26 1 QC4.89 [4.52, 5.23]0.82-4.89 [-5.23, -4.52]5.00 [4.63, 5.33]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-0.96+0.672026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d26 1 QC4.89 [4.50, 5.20]0.82-4.89 [-5.20, -4.50]5.00 [4.61, 5.31]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-0.96+0.672026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d26 1 QC4.89 [4.46, 5.26]0.82-4.89 [-5.26, -4.46]5.00 [4.55, 5.37]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-0.96+0.672026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall26 1 QC4.89 [4.40, 5.30]0.82-4.89 [-5.30, -4.40]5.00 [4.48, 5.39]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-0.96+0.672026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d26 1 QC3.40 [2.84, 4.00]1.44+3.13 [2.21, 3.74]3.71 [2.99, 4.38]4% [0%, 11%]12%50%-0.70+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d26 1 QC3.40 [2.70, 4.02]1.44+3.13 [1.97, 3.81]3.71 [2.81, 4.43]4% [0%, 11%]12%50%-0.70+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d26 1 QC3.40 [2.73, 4.09]1.44+3.13 [1.92, 3.89]3.71 [2.81, 4.46]4% [0%, 12%]12%50%-0.70+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall26 1 QC3.40 [2.74, 4.10]1.44+3.13 [1.81, 3.90]3.71 [2.81, 4.52]4% [0%, 12%]12%50%-0.70+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d26 1 QC3.41 [2.84, 4.00]1.44+3.14 [2.22, 3.75]3.72 [3.00, 4.39]4% [0%, 11%]12%50%-0.71+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d26 1 QC3.41 [2.71, 4.03]1.44+3.14 [1.98, 3.82]3.72 [2.82, 4.44]4% [0%, 11%]12%50%-0.71+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d26 1 QC3.41 [2.74, 4.10]1.44+3.14 [1.93, 3.90]3.72 [2.82, 4.47]4% [0%, 12%]12%50%-0.71+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall26 1 QC3.41 [2.75, 4.11]1.44+3.14 [1.82, 3.91]3.72 [2.82, 4.53]4% [0%, 12%]12%50%-0.71+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d26 1 QC2.83 [2.26, 3.34]1.37+2.54 [1.63, 3.09]3.13 [2.47, 3.68]8% [0%, 17%]35%62%-0.42+0.312026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d26 1 QC2.83 [2.07, 3.37]1.37+2.54 [1.43, 3.13]3.13 [2.19, 3.72]8% [0%, 20%]35%62%-0.42+0.312026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d26 1 QC2.83 [2.13, 3.41]1.37+2.54 [1.39, 3.18]3.13 [2.27, 3.77]8% [0%, 22%]35%62%-0.42+0.312026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall26 1 QC2.83 [2.01, 3.45]1.37+2.54 [1.28, 3.19]3.13 [2.14, 3.79]8% [0%, 20%]35%62%-0.42+0.312026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d26 1 QC2.84 [2.27, 3.34]1.37+2.54 [1.63, 3.09]3.14 [2.47, 3.68]8% [0%, 17%]31%62%-0.42+0.312026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d26 1 QC2.84 [2.07, 3.37]1.37+2.54 [1.43, 3.13]3.14 [2.20, 3.73]8% [0%, 20%]31%62%-0.42+0.312026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d26 1 QC2.84 [2.13, 3.41]1.37+2.54 [1.39, 3.18]3.14 [2.27, 3.77]8% [0%, 22%]31%62%-0.42+0.312026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall26 1 QC2.84 [2.01, 3.45]1.37+2.54 [1.28, 3.19]3.14 [2.14, 3.79]8% [0%, 20%]31%62%-0.42+0.312026-08-05 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 4, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-05: -4.4 °F2026-08-06: -3.17 °F2026-08-07: -4.07 °F2026-08-08: -3.76 °F2026-08-09: -6.2 °F2026-08-10: -7.51 °F2026-08-11: -6.31 °F2026-08-12: -4.51 °F2026-08-13: -4.47 °F2026-08-14: -3.5 °F2026-08-15: -4.19 °F2026-08-16: -3.99 °F2026-08-17: -2.27 °F2026-08-18: -4.79 °F2026-08-19: -4.32 °F2026-08-20: -5.51 °F2026-08-21: -4.87 °F2026-08-22: -6.2 °F2026-08-23: -4.23 °F2026-08-24: -8.21 °F2026-08-25: -4.12 °F2026-08-26: -4.61 °F2026-08-27: -4.56 °F2026-08-28: -5.36 °F2026-08-29: -5.5 °F2026-08-30: -1.78 °F2026-08-052026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (26 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.78
2026-08-29-5.50
2026-08-28-5.36
2026-08-27-4.56
2026-08-26-4.61
2026-08-25-4.12
2026-08-24-8.21
2026-08-23-4.23
2026-08-22-6.20
2026-08-21-4.87
2026-08-20-5.51
2026-08-19-4.32
2026-08-18-4.79
2026-08-17-2.27
2026-08-16-3.99
2026-08-15-4.19
2026-08-14-3.50
2026-08-13-4.47
2026-08-12-4.51
2026-08-11-6.31
2026-08-10-7.51
2026-08-09-6.20
2026-08-08-3.76
2026-08-07-4.07
2026-08-06-3.17
2026-08-05-4.40

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 4-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 12 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.49 · P90 |e| 6.25 °F-100+10 °Fn = 26 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.003
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.0012
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08264.71 -4.71

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 26
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 26
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 26
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 26

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 26 +0.59 [-0.55, 1.63] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -0.83 [-1.25, -0.44] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 20 -0.32 [-1.79, 0.83] no
Persistence (baseline) 26 +2.21 [0.79, 3.47] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY aifs_single lead 4, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/4/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 4. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/4/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence