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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 4

KMSY · ifs_hres · lead 4

Target day = initialization date + 4 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC4.99 [4.30, 6.04]1.50-4.99 [-6.04, -4.30]5.41 [4.71, 6.36]5% [0%, 12%]10%15%-1.27+0.332026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC4.99 [4.25, 6.27]1.50-4.99 [-6.27, -4.25]5.41 [4.67, 6.59]5% [0%, 12%]10%15%-1.27+0.332026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC4.99 [4.16, 6.29]1.50-4.99 [-6.29, -4.16]5.41 [4.63, 6.56]5% [0%, 13%]10%15%-1.27+0.332026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall20 1 QC4.99 [4.26, 6.34]1.50-4.99 [-6.34, -4.26]5.41 [4.65, 6.63]5% [0%, 13%]10%15%-1.27+0.332026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d20 1 QC4.94 [4.25, 5.99]1.50-4.94 [-5.99, -4.25]5.36 [4.65, 6.33]5% [0%, 12%]10%15%-1.24+0.332026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d20 1 QC4.94 [4.20, 6.24]1.50-4.94 [-6.24, -4.20]5.36 [4.62, 6.56]5% [0%, 12%]10%15%-1.24+0.332026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d20 1 QC4.94 [4.10, 6.26]1.50-4.94 [-6.26, -4.10]5.36 [4.57, 6.53]5% [0%, 13%]10%15%-1.24+0.332026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall20 1 QC4.94 [4.20, 6.32]1.50-4.94 [-6.32, -4.20]5.36 [4.59, 6.60]5% [0%, 13%]10%15%-1.24+0.332026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC4.21 [3.61, 4.92]1.62-4.21 [-4.92, -3.61]4.69 [3.99, 5.46]10% [0%, 22%]14%24%-0.92+0.272026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC4.21 [3.43, 5.07]1.62-4.21 [-5.07, -3.43]4.69 [3.81, 5.58]10% [0%, 23%]14%24%-0.92+0.272026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC4.21 [3.35, 5.11]1.62-4.21 [-5.11, -3.35]4.69 [3.80, 5.63]10% [0%, 25%]14%24%-0.92+0.272026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC4.21 [3.37, 5.07]1.62-4.21 [-5.07, -3.37]4.69 [3.74, 5.58]10% [0%, 24%]14%24%-0.92+0.272026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC4.17 [3.55, 4.88]1.64-4.17 [-4.88, -3.55]4.65 [3.94, 5.43]10% [0%, 22%]19%24%-0.90+0.262026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC4.17 [3.38, 5.02]1.64-4.17 [-5.02, -3.38]4.65 [3.77, 5.56]10% [0%, 23%]19%24%-0.90+0.262026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC4.17 [3.29, 5.07]1.64-4.17 [-5.07, -3.29]4.65 [3.73, 5.61]10% [0%, 25%]19%24%-0.90+0.262026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC4.17 [3.31, 5.02]1.64-4.17 [-5.02, -3.31]4.65 [3.67, 5.54]10% [0%, 24%]19%24%-0.90+0.262026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.26 [2.40, 4.15]1.84+2.98 [1.61, 4.09]3.80 [2.71, 4.75]15% [0%, 32%]25%50%-0.42+0.202026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.26 [2.28, 4.19]1.84+2.98 [1.26, 4.04]3.80 [2.62, 4.75]15% [0%, 38%]25%50%-0.42+0.202026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.26 [2.26, 4.24]1.84+2.98 [1.08, 4.22]3.80 [2.62, 4.82]15% [0%, 38%]25%50%-0.42+0.202026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.26 [2.29, 4.44]1.84+2.98 [0.96, 4.40]3.80 [2.62, 4.95]15% [0%, 36%]25%50%-0.42+0.202026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d20 1 QC3.23 [2.38, 4.14]1.83+2.96 [1.59, 4.06]3.78 [2.68, 4.73]15% [0%, 32%]25%50%-0.41+0.202026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d20 1 QC3.23 [2.26, 4.17]1.83+2.96 [1.24, 4.02]3.78 [2.60, 4.73]15% [0%, 38%]25%50%-0.41+0.202026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d20 1 QC3.23 [2.24, 4.22]1.83+2.96 [1.06, 4.20]3.78 [2.58, 4.80]15% [0%, 38%]25%50%-0.41+0.202026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall20 1 QC3.23 [2.28, 4.42]1.83+2.96 [0.95, 4.39]3.78 [2.61, 4.93]15% [0%, 36%]25%50%-0.41+0.202026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.61 [2.86, 4.36]1.66+3.34 [2.04, 4.30]3.98 [3.01, 4.78]0% [0%, 0%]14%48%-0.65+0.242026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.61 [2.64, 4.39]1.66+3.34 [1.80, 4.27]3.98 [2.70, 4.80]0% [0%, 0%]14%48%-0.65+0.242026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.61 [2.67, 4.47]1.66+3.34 [1.77, 4.40]3.98 [2.77, 4.90]0% [0%, 0%]14%48%-0.65+0.242026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.61 [2.57, 4.54]1.66+3.34 [1.50, 4.48]3.98 [2.57, 4.93]0% [0%, 0%]14%48%-0.65+0.242026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC3.59 [2.83, 4.34]1.66+3.31 [2.02, 4.27]3.96 [2.98, 4.76]0% [0%, 0%]14%48%-0.64+0.242026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC3.59 [2.59, 4.37]1.66+3.31 [1.76, 4.24]3.96 [2.67, 4.78]0% [0%, 0%]14%48%-0.64+0.242026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC3.59 [2.64, 4.45]1.66+3.31 [1.74, 4.37]3.96 [2.74, 4.88]0% [0%, 0%]14%48%-0.64+0.242026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC3.59 [2.54, 4.51]1.66+3.31 [1.47, 4.46]3.96 [2.54, 4.91]0% [0%, 0%]14%48%-0.64+0.242026-08-05 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 4, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-05: -4.92 °F2026-08-11: -9.16 °F2026-08-12: -5.51 °F2026-08-13: -5.21 °F2026-08-14: -4.64 °F2026-08-16: -5.12 °F2026-08-17: -3.4 °F2026-08-18: -4.21 °F2026-08-19: -4.65 °F2026-08-20: -7.38 °F2026-08-21: -5.96 °F2026-08-22: -2.79 °F2026-08-23: -5.01 °F2026-08-24: -0.56 °F2026-08-25: -3.94 °F2026-08-26: -4.15 °F2026-08-27: -1.77 °F2026-08-28: -8.76 °F2026-08-29: -7.8 °F2026-08-30: -4.89 °F2026-08-052026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (26 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.89
2026-08-29-7.80
2026-08-28-8.76
2026-08-27-1.77
2026-08-26-4.15
2026-08-25-3.94
2026-08-24-0.56
2026-08-23-5.01
2026-08-22-2.79
2026-08-21-5.96
2026-08-20-7.38
2026-08-19-4.65
2026-08-18-4.21
2026-08-17-3.40
2026-08-16-5.12
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-4.64
2026-08-13-5.21
2026-08-12-5.51
2026-08-11-9.16
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05-4.92

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 4-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 5 days-5 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.91 · P90 |e| 7.9 °F-100+10 °Fn = 20 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.005
-5.00-4.006
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08204.99 -4.99

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 20 +0.32 [-0.83, 1.79] no
NCEP GFS 20 +0.89 [-0.02, 2.95] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -0.79 [-1.88, 0.40] no
Persistence (baseline) 20 +2.79 [1.61, 4.11] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY ifs_hres lead 4, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 4. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence