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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KMSY · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC4.05 [3.18, 5.21]2.07-3.45 [-4.45, -2.06]4.52 [3.56, 5.61]9% [0%, 21%]9%35%-0.82+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC4.05 [3.19, 5.68]2.07-3.45 [-4.78, -1.03]4.52 [3.51, 5.95]9% [0%, 21%]9%35%-0.82+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC4.05 [3.14, 5.60]2.07-3.45 [-5.13, -0.95]4.52 [3.44, 5.84]9% [0%, 22%]9%35%-0.82+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC4.05 [3.21, 5.75]2.07-3.45 [-4.82, -1.00]4.52 [3.54, 6.01]9% [0%, 23%]9%35%-0.82+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC4.01 [3.12, 5.20]2.09-3.41 [-4.43, -2.01]4.50 [3.51, 5.62]9% [0%, 21%]13%39%-0.81+0.092026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC4.01 [3.13, 5.70]2.09-3.41 [-4.77, -0.99]4.50 [3.46, 5.97]9% [0%, 21%]13%39%-0.81+0.092026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC4.01 [3.07, 5.61]2.09-3.41 [-5.12, -0.89]4.50 [3.37, 5.87]9% [0%, 22%]13%39%-0.81+0.092026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC4.01 [3.15, 5.78]2.09-3.41 [-4.81, -0.96]4.50 [3.48, 6.02]9% [0%, 23%]13%39%-0.81+0.092026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC4.44 [3.69, 5.27]1.78-4.07 [-4.89, -2.92]4.89 [3.96, 5.72]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%-1.09+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC4.44 [3.70, 5.51]1.78-4.07 [-5.21, -1.99]4.89 [3.98, 5.87]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%-1.09+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC4.44 [3.57, 5.64]1.78-4.07 [-5.35, -1.94]4.89 [3.74, 5.94]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%-1.09+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC4.44 [3.67, 5.53]1.78-4.07 [-5.24, -2.00]4.89 [3.88, 5.91]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%-1.09+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC4.39 [3.63, 5.25]1.79-4.02 [-4.86, -2.88]4.85 [3.92, 5.69]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%-1.07+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC4.39 [3.64, 5.49]1.79-4.02 [-5.18, -1.97]4.85 [3.92, 5.86]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%-1.07+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC4.39 [3.50, 5.62]1.79-4.02 [-5.32, -1.91]4.85 [3.68, 5.91]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%-1.07+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC4.39 [3.61, 5.52]1.79-4.02 [-5.21, -1.96]4.85 [3.84, 5.88]0% [0%, 0%]12%21%-1.07+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.45 [2.83, 4.10]1.55+3.33 [2.52, 4.02]3.87 [3.05, 4.57]4% [0%, 12%]26%52%-0.85+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.45 [2.82, 4.11]1.55+3.33 [2.38, 4.05]3.87 [2.95, 4.65]4% [0%, 12%]26%52%-0.85+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.45 [2.83, 4.16]1.55+3.33 [2.33, 4.15]3.87 [2.97, 4.65]4% [0%, 12%]26%52%-0.85+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.45 [2.77, 4.26]1.55+3.33 [2.18, 4.26]3.87 [2.88, 4.73]4% [0%, 12%]26%52%-0.85+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC3.43 [2.81, 4.08]1.54+3.31 [2.50, 4.00]3.85 [3.03, 4.55]4% [0%, 12%]26%52%-0.84+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC3.43 [2.80, 4.09]1.54+3.31 [2.37, 4.04]3.85 [2.94, 4.64]4% [0%, 12%]26%52%-0.84+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC3.43 [2.79, 4.15]1.54+3.31 [2.32, 4.13]3.85 [2.95, 4.64]4% [0%, 12%]26%52%-0.84+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC3.43 [2.75, 4.24]1.54+3.31 [2.18, 4.24]3.85 [2.85, 4.72]4% [0%, 12%]26%52%-0.84+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.11 [2.56, 3.60]1.52+2.94 [2.07, 3.56]3.48 [2.87, 3.95]8% [0%, 19%]29%46%-0.70+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.11 [2.39, 3.60]1.52+2.94 [1.81, 3.53]3.48 [2.76, 3.95]8% [0%, 20%]29%46%-0.70+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.11 [2.46, 3.63]1.52+2.94 [1.89, 3.60]3.48 [2.76, 3.98]8% [0%, 20%]29%46%-0.70+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.11 [2.33, 3.65]1.52+2.94 [1.50, 3.63]3.48 [2.66, 4.01]8% [0%, 20%]29%46%-0.70+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC3.08 [2.54, 3.57]1.51+2.92 [2.06, 3.52]3.45 [2.85, 3.93]8% [0%, 19%]29%46%-0.68+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC3.08 [2.37, 3.57]1.51+2.92 [1.80, 3.50]3.45 [2.74, 3.93]8% [0%, 20%]29%46%-0.68+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC3.08 [2.45, 3.61]1.51+2.92 [1.88, 3.57]3.45 [2.75, 3.95]8% [0%, 20%]29%46%-0.68+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC3.08 [2.31, 3.62]1.51+2.92 [1.49, 3.61]3.45 [2.64, 3.98]8% [0%, 20%]29%46%-0.68+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: +6.01 °F2026-08-09: -3.01 °F2026-08-10: -6.26 °F2026-08-11: -3.1 °F2026-08-12: -2.04 °F2026-08-13: -4.81 °F2026-08-14: -4.39 °F2026-08-15: -4.85 °F2026-08-16: -3.62 °F2026-08-17: -2.23 °F2026-08-18: -2.41 °F2026-08-19: -2.99 °F2026-08-20: -3.44 °F2026-08-21: -4.24 °F2026-08-22: +0.8 °F2026-08-23: -2.3 °F2026-08-24: -0.56 °F2026-08-25: -7.84 °F2026-08-26: -6.71 °F2026-08-27: -2.38 °F2026-08-28: -8.03 °F2026-08-29: -5.83 °F2026-08-30: -5.2 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.20
2026-08-29-5.83
2026-08-28-8.03
2026-08-27-2.38
2026-08-26-6.71
2026-08-25-7.84
2026-08-24-0.56
2026-08-23-2.30
2026-08-22+0.80
2026-08-21-4.24
2026-08-20-3.44
2026-08-19-2.99
2026-08-18-2.41
2026-08-17-2.23
2026-08-16-3.62
2026-08-15-4.85
2026-08-14-4.39
2026-08-13-4.81
2026-08-12-2.04
2026-08-11-3.10
2026-08-10-6.26
2026-08-09-3.01
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02+6.01

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 1 day7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.62 · P90 |e| 6.62 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.001
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08234.05 -3.45

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -0.27 [-1.30, 1.53] no
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -2.02 [-2.02, -2.02] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -1.38 [-1.93, -0.83] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +2.32 [2.32, 2.32] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +2.34 [1.74, 2.93] yes
NCEP GFS 23 -0.76 [-1.56, 0.57] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -0.12 [-0.12, -0.12] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -0.96 [-1.79, 1.63] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -0.25 [-0.25, -0.25] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +1.27 [-0.07, 2.62] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +1.83 [-0.24, 2.57] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence